Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Fabbri  Andrea G.  Chung  Chang-Jo F.  Cendrero  Antonio  Remondo  Juan 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):487-503

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.  相似文献   

An Unusual Texture: Skeletal Sphalerite in Pyrite from Dajing Tin-polymetallic Deposit, China     

Yu Wang Wang    Jing Bin Wang  Li Juan Wang 《Resource Geology》2003,53(1):67-72

Abstract. Skeletal sphalerite with stellar, cruciform and snowflake-like (or cauliflower-like) shapes included in pyrite is widely found in the Dajing tin-polymetallic deposit. It occurs only in chalcopyrite-pyrite mineralization stage. The compositions of all sphalerites in the chalcopyrite-pyrite stage are characterized by high Cu content (3.9 - 7.0 wt% with a mean of 5.4 wt%), while the skeletal crystal sphalerite has higher zinc and cadmium contents, and lower copper and iron contents, compared with other sphalerites of the same stage. The skeletal crystal sphalerite in pyrite is possibly generated by exsolution.  相似文献   

Tree growth response to the 1913 eruption of Volcán de Fuego de Colima, Mexico     

Franco Biondi  Ignacio Galindo Estrada  Juan Carlos Gavilanes Ruiz  Alejandro Elizalde Torres 《Quaternary Research》2003,59(3):293-299

The impact of volcanic eruptions on forest ecosystems can be investigated using dendrochronological records. While long-range effects are usually mediated by decreased air temperatures, resulting in frost rings or reduced maximum latewood density, local effects include abrupt suppression of radial growth, occasionally followed by greater than normal growth rates. Annual rings in Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) on Nevado de Colima, at the western end of the Mexican Neovolcanic Belt, indicate extremely low growth in 1913 and 1914, following the January 1913 Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego, 7.7 km to the south. That event, which is listed among the largest explosive eruptions since A.D. 1500, produced ashflow deposits up to 40 m thick and blanketed our study area on Nevado de Colima with a tephra fallout 15–30 cm deep. Radial growth reduction in 1913–14 was ≥30% in 73% of the sampled trees. We geostatistically investigated the ecological impact of the eruption by mapping the decrease in xylem increment and found no evidence of a spatial structure in growth reduction. Little information has been available to date on forest species as biological archives of past environments in the North American tropics, yet this historical case study suggests that treeline tropical sites hold valuable records of prehistoric phenomena, including volcanic eruptions.  相似文献   

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：9  

Remondo  Juan  González  Alberto  De Terán  José Ramón Díaz  Cendrero  Antonio  Fabbri  Andrea  Chung  Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.  相似文献   

地球流体力学的研究与进展   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

穆穆  季仲贞  王斌  李扬 《大气科学》2003,27(4):689-711

简要介绍中国科学院大气物理研究所七十多年来在理论与计算地球流体力学方面的若干研究及其新的进展.在理论地球流体力学方面,介绍了长波动力学及线性稳定性问题、弱非线性理论及行星波动力学以及用Arnold方法(能量-Casimir方法)研究大气和海洋中各种流体运动的非线性稳定性问题的成果.此外,对扰动演变、扰动和基流相互作用及热带大气动力学中的第二类不稳定条件(CISK)也作了简要的介绍.在计算地球流体力学方面,主要内容包括:用物理观点和数学分析相结合的方法阐述了造成计算紊乱和计算不稳定的机理,论证计算稳定性、算  相似文献   

甘肃平凉地区正地闪特征分析   总被引：9，自引：9，他引：9  

张义军  言穆弘  张翠华  王怀斌 《高原气象》2003,22(3):295-300

利用雷电定位和雷达观测资料对甘肃平凉地区正地闪特性进行了分析。结果表明：正、负地闪回击的上升时间分布范围基本一致，大约在3—20μs之间，其平均值负地闪为8．33μs，正地闪为10．7μs。负地闪回击后的过军时间分布范围较广，在10-130μs之间，其平均值为51μs；正地闪回击后的过军时间分布范围比负地闪要小得多，在10一50μs之间，其平均值为19．67μs。负地闪的反冲深度dp为32％，正地闪为55％。在正负地闪的日变化中，负地闪有两个峰值分别出现在01：00和13：00(北京时，下同)，而正地闪在下午18：00出现一个极大值，正负地闪数的分布呈反相关。降雹时间的峰值与正地闪峰值时间有比较好的一致性，正地闪的发生与云中固态水成物粒子的沉降有关。  相似文献   

我国9大气候区降水特性及其物理成因的研究Ⅰ——基本特性分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

苗娟  林振山 《热带气象学报》2003,19(4):377-388

首先利用旱涝Z指数对全国9大气候区的旱涝进行了评定，并给出我国9大气候区旱涝Z指数的分布图。分析结果表明，1950年代我国除新疆地区处于偏早期外，其它几个区都处于多雨量期，1960年代由多雨向少雨转变的时期，1970年代——1980年代中期我国大部分地区处于雨量偏少期；1990年之后我国各个区的雨量都有所增加。此外，还应用Morlet小波变化对我国9大气候区降水的旱涝周期变化、旱涝分型及变化趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明：在16年、32年层次变化上，各气候区在不同时间段上，8年层次上降水的变化出现了一定的规律：东北、华北在1980年之后存在1年位相差；而长江中下游、江南及华南三者之间在1951～1970年时段上依次有着2年的位相差；长江中下游、内蒙及新疆之间依次存在着3年位相差。  相似文献   

地震活动时序谱的涨落统计特征与地震活跃期   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

涂鹏  韩渭宾 《四川地震》1997,(4):22-29

为寻求地震活动演化的统计判据，本文采用多项式拟合法展示地震时序谱之涨落谱，以分维函数法判断最小邻间距（NNS）分布的Poisson性，然后采用MKS无参量法判别涨落谱之统计稳定性，确定NNS分布的转变区，具体研讨了四川、云南若干震区地震活动时序谱的涨落统计分布，发现地震活跃期到来时NNS分布表现出非Poisson化的特征。进一步通过改变和调节时序数据样本集之震级下限，并逐段前推进行统计计算的方式进一步验证结果的可靠性，客观地确定了这些震区地震活动时序涨落谱统计特征的转变期，使根据该统计法判断地震活跃期的方法论渐趋完善。  相似文献   

辽宁水泉金矿综合信息找矿模型及预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陆红  高娟 《世界地质》1997,16(2):45-48

通过对辽宁水泉金矿的基础地质研究和综合找矿信息分析，并根据该矿区资源危机，缺乏后备金矿储备的实际情况建立了水泉金矿综合信息找矿模型。对远景成矿靶区进行了初步圈定，为详细地质勘查、扩大金矿资源提供了依据。  相似文献   

Yucatán karst features and the size of Chicxulub crater     

Martin Connors  Alan R. Hildebrand  Mark Pilkington  Carlos Ortiz-Aleman  Rene E. Chavez  Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi  Eduardo Graniel-Castro  Alfredo Camara-Zi  Juan Vasquez  John F. Halpenny 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(3):F11-F14

The buried Chicxulub impact structure is marked by a dramatic ring of sinkholes (called cenotes if containing water), and adjacent less prominent partial rings, which have been shown to coincide with maxima in horizontal gravity gradients and a topographic depression. These observations, along with the discreteness and spacing of the features, suggest a formation mechanism involving faulting in the outer slump zone of the crater, which would thus have a diameter of approximately 180 km.
An opposing view, based primarily on the interpretation of gravity data, is that (he crater is much larger than the cenote ring implies. Given the association of the known cenote ring with faults, we here examine northern Yucatan for similar rings in gravity, surface features and elevation, which we might expect to be associated with outer concentric faults in the case of a larger, possibly multiring, structure.
No such outer rings have been found, although definite patterns are seen in the distribution of karst features outside the crater rim. We explain these patterns as resulting mainly from deformation related to the block fault zone that parallels tbe shelf edge of eastern Yucatan.  相似文献