Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS     

梁英麦康森  孙世春于道展 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2001,19(3):249-254

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.  相似文献   

广东省拖网网囊调查     

杨吝  张旭丰  孙典荣  谭永光 《广东海洋大学学报》2001,21(4):22-26

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.  相似文献   

基于Chandra的活动星系核观测     

李丹丹  王竞  陈阳  何香涛 《天文学进展》2005,23(3):239-247

活动星系核（AGN）是宇宙中最奇特的天体之一。它是真正意义上的全波天体，其中X射线波段的发射功率占到全波段功率的50％左右。AGN的X射线辐射研究涉及天体物理中的最基本问题，例如能量产生、辐射机制和宇宙论等，而Chandra X射线卫星的高分辨率图像和光谱对这一研究有着重要作用。以Chandra卫星的部分观测结果为例，简要介绍了几类不同类型AGN的X射线辐射研究进展：（1）宽吸收线类星体APM08279＋5255（z=3．91）的X射线谱分析，以及高红移类星体的观测概况；（2）Seyfert星系NGC 4151延展X射线发射问题的解决，及NGC 1068X射线辐射与光学波段的高激发态发射线（[OⅢ]λ5007）有很强相关性的发现；（3）6个BLLac天体样本的X射线环境分析；（4）射电星系X射线喷流的观测等。  相似文献   

三类密近双星自转同步性参量的理论计算和统计分析     

李林森 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1997,(4)

利用双星自转同步性理论给出了６９个三类密近双星系统中９３个子星的临界同步自转参量和临界自转周期．并把利用临界自转同步参量所计算的临界自转周期与由气体星自转不稳定理论所计算的临界自转周期做了比较，其结果是两者均属同一量级．  相似文献   

Apsidal corotation in mean motion resonance: the 55 Cancri system as an example   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Li-Yong Zhou  Harry J. Lehto  Yi-Sui Sun  Jia-Qing Zheng 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1495-1502

  相似文献   

The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater and the interaction of copper with humic matter     

Mingyi  Sun 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1985,3(2):224-234

The anodic stripping voltammetry with physically-coating mercury film electrode was used to investigate the complexing action of trace heavy metals in seawater with organic ligands. The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater was determined by titrating the organic ligands in natural seawater with standard ionic copper solution. The complexing actions of copper in seawater with humic acid (HA) or fulvic acid (FA) were investigated by titrating copper in seawater with HA or FA solution. The equilibrium time, electrodeposition potential, and effect of pH etc. were investigated respectively. The results show that the interaction of copper in seawater with organic matter is a fast process. At natural pH, HA or FA tend to act with copper in seawater to form nonlabile complexes. During experimental electrode process, these complexes did not significantly dissociate. The experimental results were calculated according to 1∶1 complex formation.  相似文献   

The global joule heat production rate and the AE index     

Sun Wei  B.-H. Ahn  S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(3):279-281

The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate.  相似文献   

差分观测与伪距观测的定位精度     

孙宏伟  李玉莉 《时间频率学报》1993,(2)

严格论证了在对空间或地面目标的定位中,利用伪距测量观测模型的几何因子大于用台站间一次差分观测模型的几何因子.此外,台站间完全差分测量观测的定位精度优于不完全测量情形的定位精度.这些结果给人们在实际工作中采取何种定位方式提供了可靠的理论依据.  相似文献   

吸积双星脉冲星EXO2030+375中回旋吸收线的迹象     

孙学军  程凌翔  李惕碚  吴枚 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1993,(2)

本文作者首次发现了EXO 2030+375的回旋吸收线迹象.这是迄今唯一一个同时有用回旋吸收线直接测量的磁场数据和用吸积演化方法间接测量的中子星磁矩数据的X射线脉冲星.两种测量方法的结果有很大差别,本文提出了可能导致这种差别的物理机制.  相似文献