Detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm     

Athanasia Nikolaou  Pedro Antonio Gutiérrez  Antonio Durán  Isabelle Dicaire  Francisco Fernández-Navarro  César Hervás-Martínez 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(7-8):1919-1933

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Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping          下载免费PDF全文

Lorenzo Alfieri  Peter Salamon  Alessandra Bianchi  Jeffrey Neal  Paul Bates  Luc Feyen 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4067-4077

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

P–T–t estimation of deformation in low‐grade quartz‐feldspar‐bearing rocks using thermodynamic modelling and 40Ar/39Ar dating techniques: example of the Plan‐de‐Phasy shear zone unit (Briançonnais Zone,Western Alps)     

Pierre Lanari  Yann Rolland  Stéphane Schwartz  Olivier Vidal  Stéphane Guillot  Pierre Tricart  Thierry Dumont 《地学学报》2014,26(2):130-138

Pressure–Temperature–time (P–T–t) estimates of the syn‐kinematic strain at the peak‐pressure conditions reached during shallow underthrusting of the Briançonnais Zone in the Alpine subduction zone was made by thermodynamic modelling and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating in the Plan‐de‐Phasy unit (SE of the Pelvoux Massif, Western Alps). The dated phengite minerals crystallized syn‐kinematically in a shear zone indicating top‐to‐the‐N motion. By combining X‐ray mapping with multi‐equilibrium calculations, we estimate the phengite crystallization conditions at 270 ± 50 °C and 8.1 ± 2 kbar at an age of 45.9 ± 1.1 Ma. Combining this P–T–t estimate with data from the literature allows us to constrain the timing and geometry of Alpine continental subduction. We propose that the Briançonnais units were scalped on top of the slab during ongoing continental subduction and exhumed continuously until collision.  相似文献   

Solid–fluid transition modelling in geomaterials and application to a mudflow interacting with an obstacle     

Noémie Prime  Frédéric Dufour  Félix Darve 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(13):1341-1361

Given the contrasting behaviour observed for geomaterials, for example, during landslides of the flow type, this contribution proposes an original constitutive model, which associates both an elasto‐plastic relation and a Bingham viscous law linked by a mechanical transition criterion. This last is defined as the second‐order work sign for each material point, which is a general criterion for divergence instabilities. Finite element method with Lagrangian integration points is chosen as a framework for implementing the new model because of its well‐known ability to deal with both solid and fluid behaviours in large deformation processes. A first boundary model considering a sample of initially stable soil, a slope and an obstacle is performed. The results show the power of the constitutive model because the consistent evolution of initiation, propagation and arrest of the mudflow is described. A parametric study is led on various plastic and viscous parameters to determine their influence on the flow development and arrest. Finally, forces against the obstacle are compared with good agreement with those of other authors for the same geometry and a pure viscous behaviour. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Influence of dissolution/reprecipitation reactions on metamorphic greenschist to amphibolite facies mica 40Ar/39Ar ages in the Longmen Shan (eastern Tibet)          下载免费PDF全文

Laura Airaghi  Clare J. Warren  Julia de Sigoyer  Pierre Lanari  Valérie Magnin 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(7):933-958

Linking ages to metamorphic stages in rocks that have experienced low‐ to medium‐grade metamorphism can be particularly tricky due to the rarity of index minerals and the preservation of mineral or compositional relicts. The timing of metamorphism and the Mesozoic exhumation of the metasedimentary units and crystalline basement that form the internal part of the Longmen Shan (eastern Tibet, Sichuan, China), are, for these reasons, still largely unconstrained, but crucial for understanding the regional tectonic evolution of eastern Tibet. In situ core‐rim ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite and U–Th/Pb allanite data show that amphibolite facies conditions (~10–11 kbar, 530°C to 6–7 kbar, 580°C) were reached at 210–180 Ma and that biotite records crystallization, rather than cooling, ages. These conditions are mainly recorded in the metasedimentary cover. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages obtained from matrix muscovite that partially re‐equilibrated during the post peak‐P metamorphic history comprise a mixture of ages between that of early prograde muscovite relicts and the timing of late muscovite recrystallization at c. 140–120 Ma. This event marks a previously poorly documented greenschist facies metamorphic overprint. This latest stage is also recorded in the crystalline basement, and defines the timing of the greenschist overprint (7 ± 1 kbar, 370 ± 35°C). Numerical models of Ar diffusion show that the difference between ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite and muscovite ages cannot be explained by a slow and protracted cooling in an open system. The model and petrological results rather suggest that biotite and muscovite experienced different Ar retention and resetting histories. The Ar record in mica of the studied low‐ to medium‐grade rocks seems to be mainly controlled by dissolution–reprecipitation processes rather than by diffusive loss, and by different microstructural positions in the sample. Together, our data show that the metasedimentary cover was thickened and cooled independently from the basement prior to c. 140 Ma (with a relatively fast cooling at 4.5 ± 0.5°C/Ma between 185 and 140 Ma). Since the Lower Cretaceous, the metasedimentary cover and the crystalline basement experienced a coherent history during which both were partially exhumed. The Mesozoic history of the Eastern border of the Tibetan plateau is therefore complex and polyphase, and the basement was actively involved at least since the Early Cretaceous, changing our perspective on the contribution of the Cenozoic geology.  相似文献   

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) values in Sphagnum cellulose,Mohos peat bog,Romania     

Túri  Marianna  Hubay  Katalin  Molnár  Mihály  Braun  Mihály  László  Elemér  Futó  István  Palcsu  László 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2021,66(3):229-248

Journal of Paleolimnology - We measured stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C) in Sphagnum cellulose that was extracted from a long peat core drilled in the ombrotrophic Mohos peat bog, Ciomadul...  相似文献   

Geostatistical Algorithm Selection for Mineral Resources Assessment and its Impact on Open-pit Production Planning Considering Metal Grade Boundary Effect     

Maleki  Mohammad  Madani  Nasser  Jélvez  Enrique 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(6):4079-4094

Mine planning is influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Significant sources of geological uncertainty in mine planning include uncertainty in layout of geological domains and uncertainty in metal grades. These two sources of uncertainty cannot be modeled separately because the distribution of the grade is controlled usually by geological domains. Two approaches exist for combining these two sources of uncertainty: the joint simulation approach and the cascade approach. In this paper, these two approaches were compared using a real case study. To this end, uncertainty in iron grade (quantitative variable) and ore zones (qualitative variable) was modeled using both approaches. There were some considerable differences in the results obtained by each approach, which confirm the importance of choosing the most appropriate approach with consideration of the dominate features of a deposit.

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On the consistency of the current conventional EOP series and the celestial and terrestrial reference frames     

Santiago Belda  Robert Heinkelmann  José M. Ferrándiz  Tobias Nilsson  Harald Schuh 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(2):135-149

Precise transformation between the celestial reference frames (CRF) and terrestrial reference frames (TRF) is needed for many purposes in Earth and space sciences. According to the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) recommendations, the accuracy of positions and stability of reference frames should reach 1 mm and 0.1 mm year\(^{-1}\), and thus, the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) should be estimated with similar accuracy. Different realizations of TRFs, based on the combination of solutions from four different space geodetic techniques, and CRFs, based on a single technique only (VLBI, Very Long Baseline Interferometry), might cause a slow degradation of the consistency among EOP, CRFs, and TRFs (e.g., because of differences in geometry, orientation and scale) and a misalignment of the current conventional EOP series, IERS 08 C04. We empirically assess the consistency among the conventional reference frames and EOP by analyzing the record of VLBI sessions since 1990 with varied settings to reflect the impact of changing frames or other processing strategies on the EOP estimates. Our tests show that the EOP estimates are insensitive to CRF changes, but sensitive to TRF variations and unmodeled geophysical signals at the GGOS level. The differences between the conventional IERS 08 C04 and other EOP series computed with distinct TRF settings exhibit biases and even non-negligible trends in the cases where no differential rotations should appear, e.g., a drift of about 20 \(\upmu \)as year\(^{-1 }\)in \(y_{\mathrm{pol }}\) when the VLBI-only frame VTRF2008 is used. Likewise, different strategies on station position modeling originate scatters larger than 150 \(\upmu \)as in the terrestrial pole coordinates.  相似文献   

Assimilation of Hourly Surface Observations with the Canadian High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter     

Weiguang Chang  Dominik Jacques  Luc Fillion  Seung-Jong Baek 《大气与海洋》2017,55(4-5):247-263

An hourly-cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) working at 2.5?km horizontal grid spacing is implemented over southern Ontario (Canada) to assimilate Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs) in addition to the observations assimilated operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. This high-resolution EnKF (HREnKF) system employs ensemble land analyses and perturbed roughness length to prevent an ensemble spread that is too small near the surface. The HREnKF then performs continuously for a four-day period, from which twelve-hour ensemble forecasts are launched every six hours. The impact on analyses and short-term forecasts of assimilating METAR data is given special attention.

It is shown that using ensemble land surface analyses increases near-surface ensemble spreads for temperature and specific humidity. Perturbing roughness length enlarges the spread for surface wind. Given sufficient ensemble spread, the four-day case study shows that the near-surface model state is brought closer to surface observations during the cycling process. The impact of assimilating surface data can also be seen at higher levels by using aircraft reports for verification. The ensemble forecast verification suggests that METAR data assimilation improves ensemble forecasts of air temperature and dewpoint near the surface up to a lead time of six hours or even longer. However, only minor improvement is found in surface wind forecasts.  相似文献   

Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation     

É. Bresson  R. Laprise  D. Paquin  J.M. Thériault  R. de Elía 《大气与海洋》2017,55(2):79-93

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.  相似文献