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61.
Birgit H��nicke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(8):1721-1730
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first
century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation
changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical
relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the
central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century
future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern
Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers
are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise. 相似文献
62.
Green roofs are a form of green infrastructure aimed at retaining or slowing the movement of precipitation as stormwater runoff to sewer systems. To determine total runoff versus retention from green roofs, researchers and practitioners alike employ hydrologic models that are calibrated to one or more observed events. However, questions still remain regarding how event size may impact parameter sensitivity, how best to constrain initial soil moisture (ISM), and whether limited observations (i.e., a single event) can be used within a calibration-validation framework. We explored these questions by applying the storm water management model to simulate a large green roof located in Syracuse, NY. We found that model performance was very high (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index > 0.8 and Kling-Gupta efficiency index > 0.8) for many events. We initially compared model performance across two parameterizations of ISM. For some events, we found similar performance when ISM was varied versus set to zero; for others, varying ISM yielded higher performance as well as greater water balance closure. Within a calibration-validation framework, we found that calibrating to larger events tended to produce moderate to high performance for other non-calibration events. However, very small storms were notoriously difficult to simulate, regardless of calibration event size, as these events are likely fully retained on the roof. Using regional sensitivity analysis, we confirmed that only a subset of model parameters was sensitive across 16 events. Interestingly, many parameters were sensitive regardless of event size, though some parameters were more sensitive when simulating smaller events. This emphasizes that storm size likely influences parameter sensitivity. Overall, we show that while calibrating to a single event can achieve high performance, exploring simulations across multiple events can yield important insight regarding the hydrologic performance of green roofs that can be used to guide the gathering of in situ properties and observations for refining model frameworks. 相似文献
63.
Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953–2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960–2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below ?30 have decreased significantly at more than 76% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres. 相似文献
64.
?????????????????仯????????????е????????????????й????????????????????????????GPS????????????й??????????????????????????????????仯??????????????2001~2007???????????????????????к????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2007~2009?????????????????????????????????????????????????????ν??????????????????????????????????2009~2011????????????????????????????????????????????????2007~2009????? 相似文献
65.
??????????λ???????????μ????????????????????????÷?????????????0.5 m????????????0.2 m??????????????????????????????????????????????????÷???????????????????????2 h????????λ?? 相似文献
66.
???????Vondrak?????????????EKF??,???????GPS??????λ??????????????EKF??????????????????Vondrak??????????????????μ????EKF???????????????д???????λ????????????????EKF???????????????????????д???????????????EKF????????????????д?????????????????????????????????????п????????????????????Ч??? 相似文献
67.
���������︶ƽ 《大地测量与地球动力学》2014,34(6):144-147
???С????????????????????????С???任????AR???????GNSS/INS??????????С????????????????????????????AR??????????????е???????????????????????????÷??????????????????????????????????????Ч??GNSS/INS??????????? 相似文献
68.
???????????TEC????????????????????SSA????????TEC????У???SSA??????????????????ARMA???????????????????????????????IGS????2010??????TEC?????????飬???????????????????????5 d??TEC????????????92%???????ARMA??????4%?? 相似文献
69.
Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Amartya K. Saha Sonali Saha Jimi Sadle Jiang Jiang Michael S. Ross Ren�� M. Price Leonel S. L. O. Sternberg Kristie S. Wendelberger 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):81-108
Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999?C2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe. 相似文献
70.
Juan Carlos Linares Antonio Delgado-Huertas Jos�� Antonio Carreira 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):67-90
The projected temperature rise, rainfall decrease and concentration of rainfall in extreme events could induce growth decline and die-off on tree populations located at the geographical distribution limit of the species. Understanding of adaptive capacity and regional vulnerability to climate change in Mediterranean forests is not well developed and requires more focused research efforts. We studied the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation along the southwestern edge of the Betic range (southern Spain) and measured basal area increment (BAI) and carbon isotope (??) in tree ring series of Abies pinsapo and Pinus halepensis, two Mediterranean conifer trees with contrasting drought adaptive capacity. Climatic information was obtained from a network covering a wide range of elevations and distances from the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts. Temperature trends were tested by the Mann?CKendall test, and precipitation was thoroughly analyzed by quantile regression. Climatic data showed a warming trend, enhanced since the 1970s, while quantile regressions revealed that drought events worsened during the course of the twentieth century. Long-term decrease of A. pinsapo BAI was related to regional warming and changing precipitation patterns, suggesting increasing drought stress on this species. Both temperature and precipitation in the summer influenced wood ?? in P. halepensis, whereas negative correlation between wood ?? and current autumn temperature was yielded for A. pinsapo. Increased intrinsic water use efficiency was inferred from wood ?? in both species; however, A. pinsapo showed sudden growth reductions under drier conditions, while pine trees were able to maintain almost constant BAI values and lower water costs under increasing long-term water stress. 相似文献