On peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods with zero-inflated Poisson arrivals under stationarity and nonstationarity   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Artur Tiago Silva  Maria Manuela Portela  Mauro Naghettini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1587-1599

  相似文献   

Gravothermal catastrophe in anisotropic spherical systems     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Giuseppe Pucacco  & Enrico Vesperini 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(1):25-30

In this paper we investigate the gravothermal instability of spherical stellar systems endowed with a radially anisotropic velocity distribution. We focus our attention on the effects of anisotropy on the conditions for the onset of instability and in particular we study the dependence of the spatial structure of critical models on the amount of anisotropy present in a system. The investigation has been carried out by the method of linear series which has already been used in the past to study the gravothermal instability of isotropic systems._   We consider models described by King, Wilson and Woolley–Dickens distribution functions. In the case of King and Woolley–Dickens models, our results show that, for quite a wide range of the amount of anisotropy in the system, the critical value of the concentration of the system (defined as the ratio of the tidal to the King core radius of the system) is approximately constant and equal to the corresponding value for isotropic systems. Only for very anisotropic systems does the critical value of the concentration start to change and it decreases significantly as the anisotropy increases and penetrates the inner parts of the system. For Wilson models the decrease of the concentration of critical models is preceded by an intermediate regime in which critical concentration increases, reaches a maximum and then starts to decrease. The critical value of the central potential always decreases as the anisotropy increases.  相似文献   

Sedimentation of long-lasting wind-affected volcanic plumes: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile     

Costanza Bonadonna  Raffaello Cioni  Marco Pistolesi  Manuela Elissondo  Valerie Baumann 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(2):1-19

  相似文献   

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: I. Forecasting the Solar Wind Parameters     

Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Astrid M. Veronig 《Solar physics》2007,240(2):315-330

We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005, characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°]. On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to %. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n ( , 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics.  相似文献   

Combining Robustness with Efficiency in?the?Estimation of the Variogram     

Hil��rio Miranda  Manuela Souto?de?Miranda 《Mathematical Geosciences》2011,43(3):363-377

In the present paper, we propose a new method for the estimation of the variogram, which combines robustness with efficiency under intrinsic stationary geostatistical processes. The method starts by using a robust estimator to obtain discrete estimates of the variogram and control atypical observations that may exist. When the number of points used in the fit of a model is the same as the number of parameters, ordinary least squares and generalized least squares are asymptotically equivalent. Therefore, the next step is to fit the variogram by ordinary least squares, using just a few discrete estimates. The procedure is then repeated several times with different subsets of points and this produces a sequence of variogram estimates. The final estimate is the median of the multiple estimates of the variogram parameters. The suggested estimator will be called multiple variograms estimator. This procedure assures a global robust estimator, which is more efficient than other robust proposals. Under the assumed dependence structure, we prove that the multiple variograms estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study confirms that the new method has several advantages when compared with other current methods.  相似文献   

Shrinking and Cooling of Flare Loops in a Two-Ribbon Flare     

Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Astrid Veronig  Marian Karlický  Jun Lin 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):273-299

We analyze the evolution of the flare/postflare-loop system in the two-ribbon flare of November 3, 2003, utilizing multi-wavelength observations that cover the temperature range from several tens of MK down to 10⁴ K. A non-uniform growth of the loop system enables us to identify analogous patterns in the height–time, h(t), curves measured at different temperatures. The “knees,” “plateaus,” and “bends” in a higher-temperature curve appear after a certain time delay at lower heights in a lower-temperature curve. We interpret such a shifted replication as a track of a given set of loops (reconnected field lines) while shrinking and cooling after being released from the reconnection site. Measurements of the height/time shifts between h(t) curves of different temperatures provide a simultaneous estimate of the shrinkage speed and cooling rate in a given temperature domain, for a period of almost ten hours after the flare impulsive phase. From the analysis we find the following: (a) Loop shrinkage is faster at higher temperatures – in the first hour of the loop-system growth, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK is 20 – 30 km s⁻¹, whereas at 1 MK it amounts to 5 km s⁻¹; (b) Shrinking becomes slower as the flare decays – ten hours after the impulsive phase, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK becomes 5 km s⁻¹; (c) The cooling rate decreases as the flare decays – in the 5 MK range it is 1 MK min⁻¹ in the first hour of the loop-system growth, whereas ten hours later it decreases to 0.2 MK min⁻¹; (d) During the initial phase of the loop-system growth, the cooling rate is larger at higher temperatures, whereas in the late phases the cooling rate apparently does not depend on the temperature; (e) A more detailed analysis of shrinking/cooling around one hour after the impulsive phase reveals a deceleration of the loop shrinkage, amounting to ā ≈ 10 m s⁻² in the T < 5 MK range; (f) In the same interval, conductive cooling dominates down to T ≈ 3 MK, whereas radiation becomes dominant below T ≈ 2 MK; (g) A few hours after the impulsive phase, radiation becomes dominant across the whole T < 5 MK range. These findings are compared with results of previous studies and discussed in the framework of relevant models.  相似文献   

A constitutive model for granular materials with grain crushing and its application to a pyroclastic soil     

Manuela Cecconi  Antonio DeSimone  Claudio Tamagnini  Giulia M.B. Viggiani 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2002,26(15):1531-1560

A constitutive model for granular materials is developed within the framework of strain–hardening elastoplasticity, aiming at describing some of the macroscopic effects of the degradation processes associated with grain crushing. The central assumption of the paper is that, upon loading, the frictional properties of the material are modified as a consequence of the changes in grain size distribution. The effects of these irreversible microscopic processes are described macroscopically as accumulated plastic strain. Plastic strain drives the evolution of internal variables which model phenomenologically the changes of mechanical properties induced by grain crushing by controlling the geometry of the yield locus and the direction of plastic flow. An application of the model to Pozzolana Nera is presented. The stress–dilatancy relationship observed for this material is used as a guidance for the formulation of hardening laws. One of the salient features of the proposed model is its capability of reproducing the stress–dilatancy behaviour observed in Pozzolana Nera, for which the minimum value of dilatancy always follows the maximum stress ratio experienced by the material. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The halo distribution of 2dF galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Cristiano Porciani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(1):186-198

  相似文献   

The solar soft X-ray background flux and its relation to flare occurrence     

Veronig  Astrid M.  Temmer  Manuela  Hanslmeier  Arnold 《Solar physics》2004,219(1):125-133

Solar Physics - The soft X-ray background flux (XBF) based on GOES 1–8&;nbsp;Å measurements for the period 1975–2003 is studied. There is strong evidence that in the XBF the...  相似文献   

Structural features and mechanical behaviour of a pyroclastic weak rock     

Manuela Cecconi  Giulia MB Viggiani 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2001,25(15):1525-1557

The results of an extensive programme of laboratory testing on intact and reconstituted samples of a pyroclastic weak rock from the volcanic complex of the Colli Albani (Central Italy) are presented. The deposit is known as Pozzolana Nera and may be assimilated to a bonded coarse grained material. The nature of bonds and the micro‐structural features were examined by means of diffractometry, optical and electron microscopy. As bonds are made of the same constituents of grains and aggregates of grains, bond deterioration and particles breakage upon loading are indistinguishable features of the mechanical behaviour. The testing programme consisted mainly of one‐dimensional and drained and undrained triaxial compression tests in a wide range of confining pressures up to 58 MPa. As confining stress increases, the mechanical behaviour of the material changes from brittle and dilatant to ductile and contractant; for both brittle and ductile behaviour failure is associated with the formation of shear surfaces separating the sample in several parts at the end of test. The experimental stress–dilatancy relationships are compared with the classical stress–dilatancy theories for a purely frictional material and for a material with friction and cohesion between particles. The analysis of the data indicates that peak strength results from the interplay between degradation of inter‐particle bonds, increasing friction between particles and increasing rate of dilation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Son, Ltd.  相似文献