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91.
Till Kuhlbrodt Stefan Rahmstorf Kirsten Zickfeld Frode Bendiksen Vikebø Svein Sundby Matthias Hofmann Peter Michael Link Alberte Bondeau Wolfgang Cramer Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537
This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems
in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate
model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by
2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards
the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling.
Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to
the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures.
A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional
shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could
lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be
large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity
is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production
in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual
in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’
views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION. 相似文献
92.
Ahmed A. Balogun Jimmy O. Adegoke Sajith Vezhapparambu Matthias Mauder Joseph P. McFadden Kevin Gallo 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,133(3):299-321
Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older
suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available
for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural
land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently
developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy
partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen
ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R
n
) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m−2) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m−2) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m−2, respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m−2 for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky
conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations
over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q
E
), sensible heat flux (Q
H
), and the residual heat storage ΔQ
s
terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R
n
, respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R
n
, and Q
E
values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in
North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan
areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the
older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined. 相似文献
93.
Near-total depletions of ozone have been observed in the Arctic spring since the mid 1980s. The autocatalytic reaction cycles involving reactive halogens are now recognized to be of main importance for ozone depletion events in the polar boundary layer. We present sensitivity studies using the model MISTRA in the box-model mode on the influence of chemical species on these ozone depletion processes. In order to test the sensitivity of the chemistry under polar conditions, we compared base runs undergoing fluxes of either Br2, BrCl, or Cl2 to induce ozone depletions, with similar runs including a modification of the chemical conditions. The role of HCHO, H2O2, DMS, Cl2, C2H6, HONO, NO2, and RONO2 was investigated. Cases with elevated mixing ratios of HCHO, H2O2, DMS, Cl2, and HONO induced a shift in bromine speciation from Br / BrO to HOBr/HBr, while high mixing ratios of C2H6 induced a shift from HOBr/HBr to Br/BrO. The shifts from Br/BrO to HOBr/HBr accelerated the aerosol debromination, but also increased the total amount of deposited bromine at the surface (mainly via increased deposition of HOBr). For all NOy species studied (HONO, NO2, RONO2) the chemistry is characterized by an increased bromine deposition on snow reducing the amount of reactive bromine in the air. Ozone is less depleted under conditions of high mixing ratios of NOx. The production of HNO3 led to the acid displacement of HCl, and the release of chlorine out of salt aerosol (Cl2 or BrCl) increased. 相似文献
94.
Jordi LLORCA Ignasi CASANOVA Josep M. TRIGO‐RODRÍGUEZ José M. MADIEDO Julia ROSZJAR Addi BISCHOFF Ulrich OTT Ian A. FRANCHI Richard C. GREENWOOD Matthias LAUBENSTEIN 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(2):159-174
Abstract— Puerto Lápice is a new eucrite fall (Castilla‐La Mancha, Spain, 10 May 2007). In this paper, we report its detailed petrography, magnetic characterization, mineral and bulk chemistry, oxygen and noble gas isotope systematics, and radionuclide data. Study of four thin sections from two different specimens reveal that the meteorite is brecciated in nature, and it contains basaltic and granulitic clasts, as well as recrystallized impact melt and breccia fragments. Shock veins are ubiquitous and show evidence of at least three different shock events. Bulk chemical analyses suggest that Puerto Lápice belongs to the main group of basaltic eucrites, although it has a significantly higher Cr content. Oxygen isotopes also confirm that the meteorite is a normal member of the HED suite. Noble gas abundances show typical patterns, with dominant cosmogenic and radiogenic contributions, and indicate an average exposure age of 19 ± 2 Ma, and a Pu‐fission Xe age well within typical eucrite values. Cosmogenic radionuclides suggest a preatmospheric size of about 20–30 cm in diameter. 相似文献
95.
96.
Florian Scholz Christian Hensen Anja Reitz Rolf L. Romer Volker Liebetrau Anette Meixner Stephan M. Weise Matthias Haeckel 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(18):5444-5459
The chemical and isotopic composition of pore fluids is presented for five deep-rooted mud volcanoes aligned on a transect across the Gulf of Cadiz continental margin at water depths between 350 and 3860 m. Generally decreasing interstitial Li concentrations and 87Sr/86Sr ratios with increasing distance from shore are attributed to systematically changing fluid sources across the continental margin. Although highest Li concentrations at the near-shore mud volcanoes coincide with high salinities derived from dissolution of halite and late-stage evaporites, clayey, terrigenous sediments are identified as the ultimate Li source to all pore fluids investigated. Light δ7Li values, partly close to those of hydrothermal vent fluids (δ7Li: +11.9‰), indicate that Li has been mobilized during high-temperature fluid/sediment or fluid/rock interactions in the deep sub-surface. Intense leaching of terrigenous clay has led to radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7106) in pore fluids of the near-shore mud volcanoes. In contrast, non-radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7075) at the distal locations are attributed to admixing of a basement-derived fluid component, carrying an isotopic signature from interaction with the basaltic crust. This inference is substantiated by temperature constraints from Li isotope equilibrium calculations suggesting exchange processes at particularly high temperatures (>200 °C) for the least radiogenic pore fluids of the most distal location.Advective pore fluids in the off-shore reaches of the Gulf of Cadiz are influenced by successive exchange processes with both oceanic crust and terrigenous, fine-grained sediments, resulting in a chemical and isotopic signature similar to that of fluids in near-shore ridge flank hydrothermal systems. This suggests that deep-rooted mud volcanoes in the Gulf of Cadiz represent a fluid pathway intermediate between mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal vent and shallow, marginal cold seep. Due to the thicker sediment coverage and slower fluid advection rates, the overall geochemical signature is shifted towards the sediment-diagenetic signal compared to ridge flank hydrothermal environments. 相似文献
97.
Matthias
Van GINNEKEN Luigi FOLCO Carole CORDIER Pierre ROCHETTE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(2):228-247
Abstract– On the basis of morphological and petrographic characteristics, eight “giant” unmelted micrometeorites in the 300–1100 μm size range were selected from the Transantarctic Mountain micrometeorite collection, Victoria Land, Antarctica. Mineralogical and geochemical data obtained by means of scanning electron microscopy, electron probe microanalyses, and synchrotron X‐ray diffraction allow their classification as chondritic micrometeorites. The large size of the micrometeorites increases considerably the amount of mineralogical and geochemical information compared to micrometeorites in smaller size fractions, therefore allowing a better definition of their parent material. A large variety of material is observed: five micrometeorites are related to unequilibrated and equilibrated ordinary chondrite, one to CV chondrite, one to CM chondrite, and one to CI chondrite parent materials. Besides reporting the first occurrence of a CV‐like micrometeorite, our study shows that the abundance of chondritic material supports observations from recent studies on cosmic spherules that a large part of the micrometeorite flux in this size range is of asteroidal origin. 相似文献
98.
Annika Nolte Malte Eley Matthias Schöniger David Gwapedza Jane Tanner Sukhmani Kaur Mantel Konstantin Scheihing 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14264
To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments. 相似文献
99.
A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments 下载免费PDF全文
Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
100.
Peter Brugger Tirtha Banerjee Frederik De Roo Konstantin Kröniger Rafat Qubaja Shani Rohatyn Eyal Rotenberg Feodor Tatarinov Dan Yakir Fulin Yang Matthias Mauder 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,169(2):233-250
We investigate the effects of an isolated meso-\(\gamma \)-scale surface heterogeneity for roughness and albedo on the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, with a case study at a semi-arid forest surrounded by sparse shrubland (forest area: \(28~\text{ km }^2\), forest length in the main wind direction: 7 km). Doppler lidar and ceilometer measurements at this semi-arid forest show an increase in the ABL height over the forest compared with the shrubland on four out of eight days. The differences in the ABL height between shrubland and forest are explained for all days with a model that assumes a linear growth of the internal boundary layer of the forest through the convective ABL upwind of the forest followed by a square-root growth into the stable free atmosphere. For the environmental conditions that existed during our measurements, the increase in ABL height due to large sensible heat fluxes from the forest (\(600~\text {W~m}^{-2}\) in summer) is subdued by stable stratification in the free atmosphere above the ABL, or reduced by high wind speeds in the mixed layer. 相似文献