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Detlef P. van Vuuren Jason Lowe Elke Stehfest Laila Gohar Andries F. Hof Chris Hope Rachel Warren Malte Meinshausen Gian-Kasper Plattner 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):255-285
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since
the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and
understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary
IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with
more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes
of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice.
There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon
cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements.
This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities. 相似文献
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The subject of this paper is the detailed hydrological simulation of two playa lakes located in southern Spain from January 2011 to March 2012 on a daily basis. These playas are placed over a 400-km 2 shallow aquifer, which is exposed to an increasing stress caused by agricultural activities, mainly olive grove plantations. The objective of the paper is to elaborate a detailed numeric model that simulates the water regime of each playa lake on a daily scale. The simulation is compared to measured water level (WL) data of the playas in order to characterize the groundwater–surface interactions. The ultimate objective of this paper is to assess the environmental impact of the increasing anthropogenic water consumption within the area of research. The results of the GW–surface interaction were very consistent with previous works. One of the playa lakes is groundwater-dependent and the other one is presumably a perched playa lake. The GW discharge of the former playa (214 mm) during the research period stands in sharp contrast to no regional GW discharge in the latter. Water level data prove that the hydrological year (2011–2012) had a very negative water budget. The evapotranspiration estimation was almost as high as double the sum of the precipitation, the run-off, and the groundwater discharge. The simulation of an anthropologically altered water regime proves that water retrieval has a harmful impact on the WL of the playa lakes as well as on the aquifer. 相似文献
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Beach-cast wrack of marine origin is considered a spatial subsidy to the marine-terrestrial transition zone. We found that
the wrack line on sand and gravel beaches of Vancouver Island was frequented by intertidal purple shore crabs,Hemigrapsus nudus (Dana 1851) and densely colonized by detritivorous talitrid amphipods. Amphipods spend the day buried in sand and forage
on beach wrack during the night.H. nudus were found in supratidal wrack putches immediately after nightly high tides in field censuses, but spent most of the day
and ebb tides either submerged subtidally or hidden underneath intertidal rocks and boulders. In feeding trials, intertidal
shore crabs were capable of preying on talitrid amphipods. We considerH. nudus an omnivore feeding on both fresh and decaying macroalgae as well as animal prey. Although living supratidally, amphipods
were significantly preferred over intertidal littorine snails by foraging shore crabs. Handling time of amphipods was significantly
shorter than for littorine snails. While amphipods had a reduced risk of predation byH. nudus when buried in the sand, foraging undern eath wrack patches did not reduce predation pressure on amphipods by shore crabs.
Rates of amphipod consumption by shore crabs were higher at darkness than daylight. In addition to an apparent day-night rhythm,
tidal height and time elapsed since previous high tide had a significant influence on shore crab density wrack. We conclude
that beach-cast wrack acts as a spatial subsidy by virtue of providing a valuable food source to talitrid amphipods, which
are in turn consumed by shore crabs that ride the nightly high tide into supratidal wrack patches to reduce the risk of passing
bare sand on theiry way to a feeding habitat rich in valuable prey. 相似文献
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Nico-Alexander Urbanski Malte Vöge Ralf Seyfried Lars Rüpke Tanja Petersen Till Hanebuth Matthias Hort 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2002,91(4):712-722
The intention of our study was to gain new insight into the complex interplay between different types of eruption of the Stromboli volcano by combining detailed field observation with different geophysical methods. We recorded more than 600 eruptions by use of continuous Doppler radar measurements. We detected the onset of the seismic precursor and the beginning of the visible eruption by use of seismic and infrared data. Two soil samples per day were used to monitor the effect of humidity on the eruptive style. We mapped the crater region as a reference base for the long-term morphological changes of the active region and for the exact positions of our measurement systems. Two distinct types of eruption were distinguished from each other on the basis of seismic and radar data - short, wide-angle Strombolian explosions and pulsating, sharp angle fountain-like eruptions. Data and visual observations imply that weather conditions significantly effect volcanic activity. We also interpret the intensification of eruptive activity during our field study as replenishment of the reservoir with a new batch of magma in late September 2000. 相似文献
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Annika Nolte Malte Eley Matthias Schöniger David Gwapedza Jane Tanner Sukhmani Kaur Mantel Konstantin Scheihing 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14264
To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments. 相似文献
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Countries with emission levels below their emission allowances have surplus Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) or other emission credits. Under the Kyoto Protocol, these surplus credits may effectively be carried from the first to a following commitment period. In the climate negotiations, various rules for carry-over and sale of surplus allowances have been put forward. This paper analyses the effect of these options on the reduction pledges for 2020, taking into account the estimated credits from the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation projects, and land-use activities for the first commitment period. For current Kyoto Protocol rules of unlimited carry-over of surplus allowances and limited carry-over of other credits, the environmental effectiveness of reduction pledges could be seriously undermined. For the group of countries that showed a willingness to participate in a second commitment period, it could imply that instead of an aggregated 2020 target resulting from the pledges of 18 to 28?% below 1990 levels by 2020, their emissions could return to business-us-usual emission projections. For the EU, a 30?% target by 2020 could imply higher emissions compared to a 20?% target, if surplus allowances would be used for achieving the 30?% but not for the 20?% target. Restricting the use of Kyoto surplus units to domestic use only, would limit the problem, but still seriously undermine the effectiveness of 2020 reduction targets. 相似文献