Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bas J. van Ruijven  Marc A. Levy  Arun Agrawal  Frank Biermann  Joern Birkmann  Timothy R. Carter  Kristie L. Ebi  Matthias Garschagen  Bryan Jones  Roger Jones  Eric Kemp-Benedict  Marcel Kok  Kasper Kok  Maria Carmen Lemos  Paul L. Lucas  Ben Orlove  Shonali Pachauri  Tom M. Parris  Anand Patwardhan  Arthur Petersen  Benjamin L. Preston  Jesse Ribot  Dale S. Rothman  Vanessa J. Schweizer 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):481-494

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.  相似文献   

Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle     

Carmen Herrero  Antonio García-Olivares  Josep L. Pelegrí 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):283-298

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.  相似文献   

Impact of the past mining activity in Roşia Montană (Romania) on soil and vegetation     

Adina-Laura Lazăr  Călin Baciu  Carmen Roba  Tiberius Dicu  Cristian Pop  Călin Rogozan  Cristina Dobrotă 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4653-4666

The paper presents the results of a combined soil and vegetation survey in Ro?ia Montan? mining area (western Romania), famous for its gold and silver deposits, extensively exploited over the last 2,000 years. As the ore extraction has ceased in 2006 and new operations could be initiated in the future, the study contributes to the definition of the environmental baseline. Samples of topsoil and leaves of the tree species Betula pendula and Carpinus betulus have been collected from the inside and outside of the mining area, on a total surface of more than 60 km². The pH and heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) have been measured on 262 soils/sediments samples, revealing the predominantly acidic character of soils and the generally low contents of heavy metals. Stronger acidity and higher contents of heavy metals have been noticed in the proximity of the mining site, on the tailings and waste rock dumps, and along the streams with acid water. More than 100 leaf samples have been analysed for the same heavy metals as soils and also for chlorophyll fluorescence and pigment concentrations. B. pendula has shown a particular ability to concentrate Zn in leaves, at levels that may greatly exceed the Zn content in the corresponding soil samples. The correlation between the heavy metal contents in leaves and in soils, in most of the cases, is not very strong, presumably in relation to the low concentrations in soils. The chlorophyll concentration in leaves of B. pendula slightly diminishes on soils with low pH.  相似文献   

EURD observations of interstellar radiation     

Jerry Edelstein  Stuart Bowyer  Eric J. Korpela  Michael Lampton  JoaquÍn Trapero  José F. Gómez  Carmen Morales  Veronica Orozco 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(1):177-185

The hot interstellar medium (ISM) has far-reaching effect upon thestructure of galaxies. Although ISM heating processes are fairly wellunderstood, after decades of study, the processes that cool the hotinterstellar medium remain obscure. The EURD spectrograph was designed tomeasure the diffuse cosmic background from 350 to 1100 Å in order tostudy the hot ISM and the mechanisms by which it sheds its energy. Wepresent the first analysis of EURD observations of the cosmic background.These EURD observations have proven to be far more sensitive than previouswork; compared to previous results, we have improved the limits to theintensity of 450 to 900 Å line emission from the ISM by one to twoorders of magnitude. Our limit to OVI 1032 Å / 1038 Å doublet of 7900ph s^-1 cm^-2 str^-1 is the lowest yet reported. The EURDlimits to line emission are less intense than predicted by a varietytheoretical models of the local ISM.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

A Very Small Array search for the extended Sunyaev–Zel''dovich effect in the Corona Borealis supercluster     

Ricardo Génova-Santos  José Alberto Rubiño-Martín  Rafael Rebolo †  Kieran Cleary ‡  Rod D. Davies  Richard J. Davis  Clive Dickinson §  Nelson Falcón ‡‡  Keith Grainge  Carlos M. Gutiérrez  Michael P. Hobson  Michael E. Jones ¶  Rüdiger Kneissl &#;  Katy Lancaster  Carmen P. Padilla-Torres  Richard D. E. Saunders  Paul F. Scott  Angela C. Taylor ¶  Robert A. Watson †† 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,363(1):79-92

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The nature and possible origin of lava-like material within cheniér crater     

Carmen J. Villella 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1977,17(4):343-352

This paper considers the origin of certain tongues of lava-like material in Cheniér Crater, a meteorite crater located about 63 km northeast of the major crater, Tsiolkovsky, on the lunar far side. The author contends that the tongues originated from subsurface movement of magma generated as a result of the meteorite impact which created Tsiolkovsky Crater. The impact produced lines of weakness which were further enhanced by the impact forming Cheniér. Magma then moved from Tsiolkovsky through the zones of weakness to Cheniér Crater, extruding on the surface to form the first stringer. Following the extrusion, magnetic movement stopped and a cap formed over the vent. Enough heat was left in place under Cheniér, however, to cause crustal melting and consequently the extrusion of a second and possible third lava-like stringer before the magma chamber under Cheniér cooled and a cap over the vents permanently formed. Confirmation of the theory depends upon whether magma can move through weak zones in the lunar subsurface. Indications of this possibility have been suggested in findings dealing with the floors of Tycho and Aristarchus craters and in a study of the effects of artificial cratering.  相似文献   

Unpacking governance: Building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basins in Brazil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nathan L. Engle  Maria Carmen Lemos 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):4-13

Governance and institutions are critical determinants of adaptive capacity and resilience. Yet the make-up and relationships between governance components and mechanisms that may or may not contribute to adaptive capacity remain relatively unexplored empirically. This paper builds on previous research focusing on integrated water resources management in Brazil to ‘unpack’ water governance mechanisms that may shape the adaptive capacity of water systems to climatic change. We construct a river basin index to characterize governance approaches in 18 Brazilian river basins, apply a reliability test to assess the validity of these governance indicators, and use in-depth qualitative data collected in a subsample of the basins to explore the relationship between the governance indicators and adaptive capacity. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between integrated water governance mechanisms and adaptive capacity. In addition, we carry out a cluster analysis to group the basins into types of governance approaches and further unveil potential relationships between the governance variables and overall adaptive capacities. The cluster analysis indicates that tensions and tradeoffs may exist between some of the variables, especially with equality of decision making and knowledge availability; a finding that has implications for decision makers aiming to build adaptive capacity and resilience through governance and institutional means.  相似文献   

Reproduction of Donax venustus Poli 1795, Donax semistriatus Poli 1795 and Intermediate Morphotypes (Bivalvia: Donacidae) in the Littoral of Málaga (Southern Spain)     

Cristina Tirado  &Carmen Salas 《Marine Ecology》1999,20(2):111-130

The reproduction and sexual cycles of Donax venustus Poli 1795, Donax semistriatus Poli 1795, and individuals with intermediate shell morphotypes were studied in the littoral of Málaga (Southern Spain) from February 1990 to January 1991, using histology and analysing the changes in flesh dry weight. The littoral of Málaga has mild seawater temperatures and several upwellings with high levels of chlorophyll a. Due to these environmental conditions, the reproductive periods of these bivalve species are very extensive, from February to November. The histological study shows asynchronous sexual cycles, with continuous but partial individual spawnings from April to November in about 50% of the D. semistriatus population, and percentages higher than 40% of the sample in most months for D. venustus. An important decrease in the ratio flesh dry weight/length³ was noted from June to August in the three populations; this is apparently related with peaks of spawning. Based on the macroscopic observation of the gonads, on the flesh dry weight study and on histological data, the sexual cycle of the intermediate morphotypes is simultaneous and similar throughout the year with those of D. venustus and D. semistriatus .  相似文献   

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica     

Mario?GómezEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  M.?Concepción Ausín  M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.  相似文献