The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Niklas S. Christensen  Andrew W. Wood  Nathalie Voisin  Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Richard N. Palmer 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):337-363

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950–1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected `business-as-usual'(BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado Riverbasin were 0.5 °C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7, and 2.4 °C warmer for Periods 1–3, respectively, relative to the historicalclimate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control climate was slightly(1%) less than for observed historical climate, and 3, 6, and 3%less for future Periods 1–3, respectively. Annual runoff in the controlrun was about 10% lower than for simulated historical conditions, and 14, 18, and 17% less for Periods 1–3, respectively. Analysis of watermanagement operations using a water management model driven by simulated streamflows showed that streamflows associated with control and future BAU climates would significantly degrade the performance of the water resourcessystem relative to historical conditions, with average total basin storage reduced by 7% for the control climate and 36, 32 and 40% for Periods 1–3, respectively. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the LowerBasin (mandated by the Colorado River Compact) were met in 80% of years for the control climate simulation (versus 92% in the historical climate simulation), and only in 59–75% of years for the future climate runs. Annual hydropower output was also significantly reduced for the control and future climate simulations. The high sensitivity of reservoir system performance for future climate is a reflection of the fragile equilibrium that now exists in operation of the system, with system demands only slightly less than long-term mean annual inflow.  相似文献   

Distribution of sterol and fatty alcohol biomarkers in particulate matter from the frontal structure of the Alboran Sea (S.W. Mediterranean Sea)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Imma Tolosa  Nathalie LeBlond  Claire Copin-Montgut  Jean-Claude Marty  Stephen de Mora  Louis Prieur 《Marine Chemistry》2003,82(3-4):161-183

Sterol and fatty alcohol biomarkers were analyzed in suspended and sinking particles from the water column (20–300 m) of the Almeria–Oran frontal zone to characterize the biogenic sources and biogeochemical processes. Diatom- and haptophyte-related sterols were predominant at all sites and vertical distributions of sterol, and fatty alcohol biomarkers in sinking particles were markedly different from suspended particles. In contrast to the relatively fresh sinking particles with elevated concentrations of phyto- and zooplanktonic sterols, suspended particles were extensively degraded with increasing depth and exhibited a more terrestrial and zooplanktonic signature with depth.Sterol and alcohol biomarkers distributions and δ¹³C values from the jet core and the associated gyre of Atlantic waters showed a decoupling between the sinking particles of 100- and 300-m depth, demonstrating the influence of lateral advection in the frontal zone. In contrast, vertical transport of the particulate organic matter in Mediterranean waters was interpreted from the similar isotopic and molecular composition at both depths. The high abundance of phytosterols and phytol below the euphotic zone at 100 m signified that downwelling of biomass occurred on the downstream side of the gyre. The high concentrations of phytosterols and POC, in combination with the high phytosterols/phytol ratio, indicated the accumulation of detrital plant material in the oligotrophic Mediterranean waters near the frontal zone.A higher contribution of phytol in the sinking particles collected during the night at the surface of the jet and at the upstream side of the gyre provided evidence of diel vertical zooplankton migration and important grazing by herbivorous zooplankton.Carbon isotope ratios of sterols confirmed that the 24-ethylcholest-5-en-3β-ol, commonly associated with terrestrial sources, was a substantial constituent of the phytoplankton in this area. However, the more δ¹³C depleted values obtained for this compound in suspended particles suggested that there was some terrestrial contribution that only becomes evident after degradation of the more labile marine organic matter.  相似文献   

Massive Upland to Wetland Conversion Compensated for Historical Marsh Loss in Chesapeake Bay,USA     

Nathalie W. Schieder  David C. Walters  Matthew L. Kirwan 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(4):940-951

Sea level rise leads to coastal transgression, and the survival of ecosystems depends on their ability to migrate inland faster than they erode and submerge. We compared marsh extent between nineteenth-century maps and modern aerial photographs across the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in North America, and found that Chesapeake marshes have maintained their spatial extent despite relative sea level rise rates that are among the fastest in the world. In the mapped region (i.e., 25% of modern Chesapeake Bay marshland), 94 km² of marsh was lost primarily to shoreline erosion, whereas 101 km² of marsh was created by upland drowning. Simple projections over the entire Chesapeake region suggest that approximately 100,000 acres (400 km²) of uplands have converted to wetlands and that about a third of all present-day marsh was created by drowning of upland ecosystems since the late nineteenth century. Marsh migration rates were weakly correlated with topographic slope and the amount of development of adjacent uplands, suggesting that additional processes may also be important. Nevertheless, our results emphasize that the location of coastal ecosystems changes rapidly on century timescales and that sea level rise does not necessarily lead to overall habitat loss.  相似文献   

Lithium Isotope Composition of Marine Biogenic Carbonates and Related Reference Materials          下载免费PDF全文

Luc Bastian  Nathalie Vigier  Stéphanie Reynaud  Marie‐Emmanuelle Kerros  Marie Revel  Germain Bayon 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2018,42(3):403-415

In this study, the accuracy and the precision corresponding to Li isotopic measurements of low level samples such as marine and coastal carbonates are estimated. To this end, a total of fifty‐four analyses of a Li‐pure reference material (Li7‐N) at concentrations ranging from 1 to 6 ng ml^?1 were first performed. The average δ⁷Li values obtained for solutions with and without chemical purification were 30.3 ± 0.4‰ (2s, n = 19) and 30.2 ± 0.4‰ (2s, n = 36), respectively. These results show that the chosen Li chemical extraction and purification procedure did not induce any significant isotope bias. Two available carbonate reference materials (JCt‐1 and JCp‐1) were analysed, yielding mean δ⁷Li values of 18.0 ± 0.27‰ (2s, n = 6) and 18.8 ± 1.8‰ (2s, n = 9), respectively. Small powder aliquots (< 15 mg) of JCp‐1 displayed significant isotope heterogeneity and we therefore advise favouring JCt‐1 for interlaboratory comparisons. The second part of this study concerns the determination of δ⁷Li value for biogenic carbonate samples. We performed a total of twenty‐nine analyses of seven different tropical coral species grown under controlled and similar conditions (24.0 ± 0.1 °C). Our sample treatment prior to Li extraction involved removal of organic matter before complete dissolution in diluted HCl. Our results show (a) a constant δ⁷Li within each skeleton and between the different species (δ⁷Li = 17.3 ± 0.7‰), and (b) a Li isotope fractionation of ?2‰ compared with inorganic aragonite grown under similar conditions. Comparison with literature data suggests a significant difference between samples living in aquaria and those grown in natural conditions. Finally, we investigate ancient (fossil) carbonate material and foraminifera extracted from marine sedimentary records. Different leaching procedures were tested using various HCl molarities. Results indicate that carbonate preferential dissolution must be carried out at an acid molarity < 0.18 mol l^?1. Possible contamination from silicate minerals can be verified using the Al/Ca ratio, but the threshold value strongly depends on the carbonate δ⁷Li value. When the silicate/carbonate ratio is high in the sediment sample (typically > 2), contamination from silicates cannot be avoided, even at low HCl molarity (? 0.1 mol l^?1). Finally, bulk carbonate and foraminifera extracted from the same core sample exhibited significant discrepancies: δ⁷Li values of foraminifera were more reproducible but were significantly lower. They were also associated with lower Sr/Ca and higher Mn/Ca ratios, suggesting a higher sensitivity to diagenesis, although specific vital effects cannot be fully ruled out.  相似文献   

MétéEAU Nappes: a real-time water-resource-management tool and its application to a sandy aquifer in a high-demand irrigation context     

Surdyk  Nicolas  Thiéry  Dominique  Nicolas  Jérome  Gutierrez  Alexis  Vigier  Yannick  Mougin  Bruno 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(6):1737-1749

The MétéEAU Nappes water-resource-management tool is presented. It is usable on the aquifer or part-of-aquifer scale for real-time observation of the state of the groundwater resource, and it is already operating in France. This online decision support tool is also able to predict the state of the resource in the short- and mid-terms. The paper explains the use of the tool in a case study in the Authion Valley, in the north-west of France, chosen for its context of tension surrounding the groundwater resource resulting from high volumes of abstraction for irrigation. The results of the simulation highlight the advantages of MétéEAU Nappes as a tool for prediction and simulation of the state of the groundwater resource. The results also show the advantages of this type of tool for water resource management, such as supplying local actors with reliable and real-time observations of the aquifer and providing forecasts to anticipate possible water shortage.

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Potential Orthopyroxene,Clinopyroxene and Olivine Reference Materials for In Situ Lithium Isotope Determination   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Ben‐Xun Su  Xiao‐Yan Gu  Etienne Deloule  Hong‐Fu Zhang  Qiu‐Li Li  Xian‐Hua Li  Nathalie Vigier  Yan‐Jie Tang  Guo‐Qiang Tang  Yu Liu  Kwan‐Nang Pang  Aaron Brewer  Qian Mao  Yu‐Guang Ma 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2015,39(3):357-369

Over 1400 electron probe and 700 ion probe microanalyses were performed on eleven mineral separates to evaluate their potential as reference materials for in situ Li isotopic determination. Our results suggest the homogenous distributions of major elements, Li and its isotopes for each sample. Hence, these samples are suitable to be used as reference materials for in situ measurements of Li abundance and Li isotopes by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) or laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). These samples have the advantage of mitigating probable matrix effects during calibration owing to the wide range of compositions. The effect of composition on the δ⁷Li of olivine measured by SIMS is a linear function of composition, with δ⁷Li increasing by 1.0‰ for each mole per cent decrease in forsterite component.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary climatic changes in southern Chile, as recorded in a diatom sequence of Lago Puyehue (40°40′ S)     

Mieke Sterken  Elie Verleyen  Koen Sabbe  Griet Terryn  Francois Charlet  Sébastien Bertrand  Xavier Boës  Nathalie Fagel  Marc De Batist  Wim Vyverman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,39(2):219-235

A late Quaternary diatom stratigraphy of Lago Puyehue (40°40′ S, 72°28′ W) was examined in order to infer past limnological and climatic changes in the South-Chilean Lake District. The diatom assemblages were well preserved in a 1,122 cm long, ¹⁴C-dated sediment core spanning the last 17,900 years, and were in support of an early deglaciation of Lago Puyehue. The presence of a short cold spell in South Chile, equivalent to the Younger Dryas event in the Northern Hemisphere, the Antarctic Cold Reversal in Antarctica, or the Huelmo-Mascardi event in southern South America, was not clearly evidenced in the diatom data, although some climate instability may have occurred between 13,400 and 11,700 cal. yr. BP, and a relatively long period (between 16,850 and 12,810 cal. yr. BP) with low absolute abundances and biovolumes could be tentatively interpreted as a period of low rainfall and/or temperatures. An increase in the moisture supply to the lake was tentatively inferred at 12,810 cal. yr. BP. After 9,550 cal. yr. BP, inferred stronger and longer persisting summer stratification, may have been the result of the higher temperatures associated with an early-Holocene thermal optimum. The mid-Holocene appeared to be characterized by a decrease in precipitation, culminating around 5,000 cal. yr. BP, and rising again after 3,000 cal. yr. BP, likely associated with a previously documented lowered frequency and amplitude of El Niño events. An increase in precipitation during the late Holocene (3,000 cal. yr. BP–present) might have marked subsequent increased frequency of El Niño occurrences, leading to drier summers and slightly moister winters in the area.  相似文献   

A 17,900-year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue (Chilean Lake District): introduction     

Marc De Batist  Nathalie Fagel  Marie-France Loutre  Emmanuel Chapron 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,39(2):151-161

This paper introduces the background and main results of a research project aimed at unravelling the paleolimnological and paleoclimatological history of Lago Puyehue (40° S, Lake District, Chile) since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), based on the study of several sediment cores from the lake and on extensive fieldwork in the lake catchment. The longest record was obtained in an 11-m-long piston core. An age-depth model was established by AMS ¹⁴C dating, ²¹⁰Pb and ²³⁷Cs measurements, identification of event-deposits, and varve-counting for the past 600 years. The core extends back to 17,915 cal. yr. BP, and the seismic data indicate that an open-lake sedimentary environment already existed several thousands of years before that. The core was submitted to a multi-proxy analysis, including sedimentology, mineralogy, grain-size, major geochemistry and organic geochemistry (C/N ratio, δ¹³C), loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility, diatom analysis and palynology. Along-core variations in sediment composition reveal that the area of Lago Puyehue was characterized since the LGM by a series of rapid climate fluctuations superimposed on a long-term warming trend. Identified climate fluctuations confirm a.o. the existence of a Late-Glacial cold reversal predating the northern-hemisphere Younger Dryas cold period by 500–1,000 years, as well as the existence of an early southern-hemisphere Holocene climatic optimum. Varve-thickness analyses over the past 600 years reveal periodicities similar to those associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, as well as intervals with increased precipitation, related to an intensification of the El Niño impact during the southern-hemisphere equivalent of the Little Ice Age.  相似文献   

Impact of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons on Tropospheric Chemistry and the Oxidizing Power of the Global Troposphere: 3-Dimensional Modelling Results     

Nathalie Poisson  Maria Kanakidou  Paul J. Crutzen 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2000,36(2):157-230

The impact of natural and anthropogenicnon-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) on troposphericchemistry is investigated with the global,three-dimensional chemistry-transport model MOGUNTIA.This meteorologically simplified model allows theinclusion of a rather detailed scheme to describeNMHC oxidation chemistry. Comparing model resultscalculated with and without NMHC oxidation chemistryindicates that NMHC oxidation adds 40–60% to surfacecarbon monoxide (CO) levels over the continents andslightly less over the oceans. Free tropospheric COlevels increase by 30–60%. The overall yield of COfrom the NMHC mixture considered is calculated to beabout 0.4 CO per C atom. Organic nitrate formationduring NMHC oxidation, and their transport anddecomposition affect the global distribution of NO _x and thereby O₃ production. The impact of theshort-lived NMHC extends over the entire tropospheredue to the formation of longer-lived intermediateslike CO, and various carbonyl and carboxyl compounds.NMHC oxidation almost doubles the net photochemicalproduction of O₃ in the troposphere and leads to20–80% higher O₃ concentration inNO _x -rich boundarylayers, with highest increases over and downwind ofthe industrial and biomass burning regions. Anincrease by 20–30% is calculated for the remotemarine atmosphere. At higher altitudes, smaller, butstill significant increases, in O₃ concentrationsbetween 10 and 60% are calculated, maximizing in thetropics. NO from lightning also enhances the netchemical production of O₃ by about 30%, leading to asimilar increase in the global mean OH radicalconcentration. NMHC oxidation decreases the OH radicalconcentrations in the continental boundary layer withlarge NMHC emissions by up to 20–60%. In the marineboundary layer (MBL) OH levels can increase in someregions by 10–20% depending on season and NO _x levels.However, in most of the MBL OH will decrease by10–20% due to the increase in CO levels by NMHCoxidation chemistry. The large decreases especiallyover the continents strongly reduce the markedcontrasts in OHconcentrations between land and oceanwhich are calculated when only the backgroundchemistry is considered. In the middle troposphere, OHconcentrations are reduced by about 15%, although dueto the growth in CO. The overall effect of thesechanges on the tropospheric lifetime of CH₄ is a 15%increase from 6.5 to 7.4 years. Biogenic hydrocarbonsdominate the impact of NMHC on global troposphericchemistry. Convection of hydrocarbon oxidationproducts: hydrogen peroxides and carbonyl compounds,especially acetone, is the main source of HO _x in theupper troposphere. Convective transport and additionof NO from lightning are important for the O₃ budgetin the free troposphere.  相似文献   

Slow Slip History for the MEXICO Subduction Zone: 2005 Through 2011     

Shannon Graham  Charles DeMets  Enrique Cabral-Cano  Vladimir Kostoglodov  Baptiste Rousset  Andrea Walpersdorf  Nathalie Cotte  Cécile Lasserre  Robert McCaffrey  Luis Salazar-Tlaczani 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(10-11):3445-3465

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