Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps     

Jennifer Cronin  Gabrial Anandarajah  Olivier Dessens 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):79-93

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the propagation of P waves in fractured media   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sylvie Kelner  Michel Bouchon  & Olivier Coutant 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(1):197-206

We study the propagation of P waves through media containing open fractures by performing numerical simulations. The important parameter in such problems is the ratio between crack length and incident wavelength. When the wavelength of the incident wavefield is close to or shorter than the crack length, the scattered waves are efficiently excited and the attenuation of the primary waves can be observed on synthetic seismograms. On the other hand, when the incident wavelength is greater than the crack length, we can simulate the anisotropic behaviour of fractured media resulting from the scattering of seismic waves by the cracks through the time delay of the arrival of the transmitted wave. The method of calculation used is a boundary element method in which the Green's functions are computed by the discrete wavenumber method. For simplicity, the 2-D elastodynamic diffraction problem is considered. The rock matrix is supposed to be elastic, isotropic and homogeneous, while the cracks are all empty and have the same length and strike direction. An iterative method of calculation of the diffracted wavefield is developed in the case where a large number of cracks are present in order to reduce the computation time. The attenuation factor Q ⁻¹ of the direct waves passing through a fractured zone is measured in several frequency bands. We observe that the attenuation factor Q ⁻¹ of the direct P wave peaks around kd = 2, where k is the incident wavenumber and d the crack length, and decreases proportionally to ( kd ) ⁻¹ in the high-wavenumber range. In the long-wavelength domain, the velocity of the direct P wave measured for two different crack realizations is very close to the value predicted by Hudson's theory on the overall elastic properties of fractured materials.  相似文献   

Two ways to look at learning regions in the context of globalization: The homogenizing and particularizing approaches     

Olivier Crevoisier 《GeoJournal》1999,49(4):353-361

  相似文献   

Depositional environment of a Kimmeridgian carbonate 'black band' (Akkuyu Formation, south-western Turkey)     

François Baudin  Nicolas Tribovillard  Fatima Laggoun-Défarge  Eric Lichtfouse  Olivier Monod  & Silvia Gardin 《Sedimentology》1999,46(4):589-602

The Upper Jurassic Akkuyu Formation of south-western Turkey consists of pale-coloured carbonate facies, but includes a peculiar ‘black band’ at its base. In order to characterize the depositional environment of this level, a sedimentological, organic and inorganic geochemical study was performed on 30 samples. Three units are distinguished. Unit 1 consists of black marlstones, very rich in organic carbon (22–30%) with HI (hydrogen index) values around 600. The organic matter is an amorphous homogeneous material even at nanoscopic scale. This unit is also characterized by a very high concentration of V ( >1000 p.p.m.) and a δ¹³C_org value around ?26·5‰. Unit 2 shows thin-bedded black limestones with chert layers. Its organic content varies from 2% to 6%. As in unit 1, the HI values are uniformly high (600), and gas chromatography shows a high quantity of hopanes. The V concentration is also high (≈400 p.p.m.). The unit has a high Sr/Ca ratio, an organic carbon isotopic ratio close to ?28·7‰ and diffuse, nanoscopically amorphous organic material that is closely associated with pyrite. Unit 3 corresponds to the white limestones overlying the ‘black band’. This calcitic facies is almost devoid of organic carbon (<0·1%). The δ¹³C_org values are similar to those of unit 1 (?25·5‰ to ?26‰). Deposition occurred in a basinal environment surrounded by a carbonate platform. Primary productivity was high but not exceptional; terrestrial organic inputs were scarce. Bottom waters were probably euxinic during the deposition of unit 1. The presence of both hopane-rich and sulphur-rich nanoscopically amorphous organic matter may be the result of strong sulphate-reducing bacterial activity. Coupled with low amounts of iron, this led to intense vulcanization of the organic matter and thus good preservation. With the onset of unit 2 deposition, environmental conditions became less extreme, perhaps because of cooler water temperatures. Finally, the depositional conditions became oxic, leading to the accumulation of pale-coloured organic-poor limestones of unit 3.  相似文献   

Intentional contamination of water distribution networks: developing indicators for sensitivity and vulnerability assessments     

Amir?NafiEmail author  Eric?Crastes  Rehan?Sadiq  Denis?Gilbert  Olivier?Piller 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(2):527-544

Performing a comprehensive risk analysis is primordial to ensure a reliable and sustainable water supply. Though the general framework of risk analysis is well established, specific adaptation seems needed for systems such as water distribution networks (WDN). Understanding of vulnerabilities of WDN against deliberate contamination and consumers’ sensitivity against contaminated water use is very vital to inform decision-maker. This paper presents an innovative step-by-step methodology for developing comprehensive indicators to perform sensitivity, vulnerability and criticality analyses in case of absence of early warning system (EWS). The assessment and the aggregation of these indicators with specific fuzzy operators allow identifying the most critical points in a WDN. Intentional intrusion of contaminants at these points can potentially harm both the consumers as well as water infrastructure. The implementation of the developed methodology has been demonstrated through a case study of a French WDN unequipped with sensors.  相似文献   

A case study of using Raman lidar measurements in high-accuracy GPS applications     

Pierre Bosser  Olivier Bock  Christian Thom  Jacques Pelon  Pascal Willis 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(4):251-265

This paper investigates the impact of rapid small-scale water vapor fluctuations on GPS height determination. Water vapor measurements from a Raman lidar are used for documenting the water vapor heterogeneities and correcting GPS signal propagation delays in clear sky conditions. We use data from four short observing sessions (6 h) during the VAPIC experiment (15 May–15 June 2004). The retrieval of wet delays from our Raman lidar is shown to agree well with radiosonde retrievals (bias and standard deviation (SD) were smaller than 1 and 2.8 mm, respectively) and microwave radiometers (from two different instruments, bias was 6.0/−6.6 mm and SD 1.3/3.8 mm). A standard GPS data analysis is shown to fail in accurately reproducing fast zenith wet delay (ZWD) variations. The ZWD estimates could be improved when mean post-fit phase residuals were removed. Several methodologies for integrating zenith lidar observations into the GPS data processing are also presented. The final method consists in using lidar wet delays for correcting a priori the GPS phase observations and estimating a scale factor for the lidar wet delays jointly with the GPS station position. The estimation of this scale factor allows correcting for a mis-calibration in the lidar data and provides in the same way an estimate of the Raman lidar instrument constant. The agreement of this constant with an independent determination using radiosonde data is at the level of 1–4%. The lidar wet delays were derived by ray-tracing from zenith pointing measurements: further improvement in GPS positioning is expected from slant path lidar measurements that would properly account for water vapor anisotropy.  相似文献   

Effectiveness of servo struts in controlling excavation-induced wall deflection and ground settlement     

Li  Ming-Guang  Demeijer  Olivier  Chen  Jin-Jian 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(9):2575-2590

Acta Geotechnica - Deformations in deep excavations can be controlled by providing adjustable support using servo struts; however, the design of strut positions and applied forces remains to be...  相似文献   

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests for transient heads in heterogeneous aquifers   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Le Borgne T  Paillet F  Bour O  Caudal JP 《Ground water》2006,44(3):444-452

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests have been proposed as an efficient method to investigate preferential flowpaths in heterogeneous aquifers, which is a major task in the characterization of fractured aquifers. Cross-borehole flowmeter tests are based on the idea that changing the pumping conditions in a given aquifer will modify the hydraulic head distribution in large-scale flowpaths, producing measurable changes in the vertical flow profiles in observation boreholes. However, inversion of flow measurements to derive flowpath geometry and connectivity and to characterize their hydraulic properties is still a subject of research. In this study, we propose a framework for cross-borehole flowmeter test interpretation that is based on a two-scale conceptual model: discrete fractures at the borehole scale and zones of interconnected fractures at the aquifer scale. We propose that the two problems may be solved independently. The first inverse problem consists of estimating the hydraulic head variations that drive the transient borehole flow observed in the cross-borehole flowmeter experiments. The second inverse problem is related to estimating the geometry and hydraulic properties of large-scale flowpaths in the region between pumping and observation wells that are compatible with the head variations deduced from the first problem. To solve the borehole-scale problem, we treat the transient flow data as a series of quasi-steady flow conditions and solve for the hydraulic head changes in individual fractures required to produce these data. The consistency of the method is verified using field experiments performed in a fractured-rock aquifer.  相似文献   

Experimental study of dense pyroclastic density currents using sustained,gas-fluidized granular flows     

Pete J. Rowley  Olivier Roche  Timothy H. Druitt  Ray Cas 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(9):1-13

Submarine lava flow morphology is commonly used to estimate relative flow velocity, but the effects of crystallinity and viscosity are rarely considered. We use digital petrography and quantitative textural analysis techniques to determine the crystallinity of submarine basaltic lava flows, using a set of samples from previously mapped lava flow fields at the hotspot-affected Galápagos Spreading Center. Crystallinity measurements were incorporated into predictive models of suspension rheology to characterize lava flow consistency and rheology. Petrologic data were integrated to estimate bulk lava viscosity. We compared the crystallinity and viscosity of each sample with its flow morphology to determine their respective roles in submarine lava emplacement dynamics. We find no correlation between crystallinity, bulk viscosity, and lava morphology, implying that flow advance rate is the primary control on submarine lava morphology. However, we show systematic variations in crystal size and shape distribution among pillows, lobates, and sheets, suggesting that these parameters are important indicators of eruption processes. Finally, we compared the characteristics of lavas from two different sampling sites with contrasting long-term magma supply rates. Differences between lavas from each study site illustrate the significant effect of magma supply on the physical properties of the oceanic upper crust.  相似文献   

Measurement of the radius of Mercury by radio occultation during the MESSENGER flybys     

Mark E. Perry  Daniel S. Kahan  Olivier S. Barnouin  Carolyn M. Ernst  Sean C. Solomon  Maria T. Zuber  David E. Smith  Roger J. Phillips  Dipak K. Srinivasan  Jürgen Oberst  Sami W. Asmar 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):1925-1931

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft completed three flybys of Mercury in 2008–2009. During the first and third of those flybys, MESSENGER passed behind the planet from the perspective of Earth, occulting the radio-frequency (RF) transmissions. The occultation start and end times, recovered with 0.1 s accuracy or better by fitting edge-diffraction patterns to the RF power history, are used to estimate Mercury's radius at the tangent point of the RF path. To relate the measured radius to the planet shape, we evaluate local topography using images to identify the high-elevation feature that defines the RF path or using altimeter data to quantify surface roughness. Radius measurements are accurate to 150 m, and uncertainty in the average radius of the surrounding terrain, after adjustments are made from the local high at the tangent point of the RF path, is 350 m. The results are consistent with Mercury's equatorial shape as inferred from observations by the Mercury Laser Altimeter and ground-based radar. The three independent estimates of radius from occultation events collectively yield a mean radius for Mercury of 2439.2±0.5 km.  相似文献