Performance of CMORPH,TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain,mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan     

Yawar?HussainEmail author  Frédéric?Satgé  Muhammad?Babar?Hussain  Hernan?Martinez-Carvajal  Marie-Paule?Bonnet  Martin?Cárdenas-Soto  Henrique?Llacer?Roig  Gulraiz?Akhter 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1119-1132

The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.  相似文献   

Modification of a Parametrization of Shallow Convection in the Grey Zone Using a Mesoscale Model     

Dávid Lancz  Balázs Szintai  Rachel Honnert 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,169(3):483-503

In current operational numerical weather prediction models, the effect of shallow convection is parametrized. The grey zone of shallow convection is found between the horizontal resolutions of mesoscale numerical models (2–3 km) and large-eddy simulations (10–100 m or finer). At these horizontal scales the shallow convection is to some extent explicitly resolved by the model. The shallow-convection parametrization is still needed, but has to be regulated according to the model horizontal resolution. Here the behaviour of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather prediction model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale is examined in the grey zone and a new scale-adaptive surface closure of its shallow-convection parametrization, dependent on horizontal resolution, is defined based on large-eddy simulation. The new closure is tested on a series of numerical experiments and validated on a 15-day-long real case period. Its impact on the development of deep convection is examined in detail. The idealized simulations show promising results, as the mean profiles of the subgrid and resolved turbulence change in the desired way. Based on the real case tests our modification has a low impact on model performance, but is part of a set of upgrades of the current parametrization that is aimed to treat the shallow convection grey zone.  相似文献   

Evaluation of an automated EA-IRMS method for total carbon analysis of atmospheric aerosol at HEKAL     

István Major  Brigitta Gyökös  Marianna Túri  István Futó  Ágnes Filep  András Hoffer  Enikő Furu  A. J. Timothy Jull  Mihály Molnár 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2018,75(1):85-96

Comprehensive atmospheric studies have demonstrated that carbonaceous particles are one of the main components of atmospheric aerosols over Europe. The aim of our study was to establish an automated elemental analyser interfaced to a stable isotope mass spectrometer (EA-IRMS) method at the Hertelendi Laboratory of Environmental Studies (HEKAL), as a suitable method of quantification of total carbon mass in individual PM_2.5 aerosol samples. Total carbon (TC) mass and simultaneous stable isotopic ratios were determined for both test standard and genuine aerosol samples. Finally, the results were compared to the ones obtained independently by an alternative sealed tube combustion method developed previously at HEKAL. The TC recovery tests of standard material prepared by the sealed tube method confirmed at least a carbon recovery yield of 92% for a broad range of carbon mass (100–2000 μg). The stable isotopic results confirmed that sealed tube method is reproducible and suitable to be used as a reference to verify our new EA-IRMS method. The EA-IRMS TC measurements of genuine aerosols gave on average 3% higher carbon recovery yield, relative to the uncorrected results of the sealed tube method. The comparison of the stable isotopic results by the two methods for aerosols also showed minimal differences. Consequently, the possibility of simultaneous TC and stable isotopic analyses makes the EA-IRMS method a very attractive alternative for continuous measurement of aerosols, with an accuracy and reliability similar to other commercial devices.  相似文献   

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region     

Moises?E.?AngelesEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Jorge?E.?González  Nazario?Ramírez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):59-72

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.  相似文献   

Winter severity and snowiness and their multiannual variability in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains     

Grzegorz?UrbanEmail author  Dá?a?Richterová  Stanislava?Kliegrová  Ilona?Zusková  Piotr?Pawliczek 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(1-2):221-240

This paper analyses winter severity and snow conditions in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains and examines their long-term trends. The analysis used modified comprehensive winter snowiness (WSW) and winter severity (WOW) indices as defined by Paczos (1982). An attempt was also made to determine the relationship between the WSW and WOW indices. Measurement data were obtained from eight stations operated by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW–PIB), from eight stations operated by the Czech Hydrological and Meteorological Institute (CHMI) and also from the Meteorological Observatory of the University of Wroc?aw (UWr) on Mount Szrenica. Essentially, the study covered the period from 1961 to 2015. In some cases, however, the period analysed was shorter due to the limited availability of data, which was conditioned, inter alia, by the period of operation of the station in question, and its type.Viewed on a macroscale, snow conditions in the Karkonosze Mountains and Jizera Mountains (in similar altitude zones) are clearly more favourable on southern slopes than on northern ones. In the study area, negative trends have been observed with respect to both the WSW and WOW indices—winters have become less snowy and warmer. The correlation between the WOW and WSW indices is positive. At stations with northern macroexposure, WOW and WSW show greater correlation than at ones with southern macroexposure. This relationship is the weakest for stations that are situated in the upper ranges (Mount ?nie?ka and Mount Szrenica).  相似文献   

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia     

Dalibor?Vyber?iEmail author  Lívia?Labudová  Milada?E?tóková  Pavol?Fa?ko  Milan?Trizna 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(3-4):925-936

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.  相似文献   

Changes in heat wave characteristics over Extremadura (SW Spain)     

Acero  Francisco Javier  Fernández-Fernández  María Isabel  Carrasco  Víctor Manuel Sánchez  Parey  Sylvie  Hoang  Thi Thu Huong  Dacunha-Castelle  Didier  García  José Agustín 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):605-617

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human...  相似文献   

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts     

Villeta  M.  Valencia  J. L.  Saá  A.  Tarquis  A. M. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1323-1335

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and...  相似文献   

An Attempt to Partition Stomatal and Non-stomatal Ozone Deposition Parts on a Short Grassland     

L. Horváth  P. Koncz  A. Móring  Z. Nagy  K. Pintér  T. Weidinger 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,167(2):303-326

To evaluate the damaging effect of tropospheric ozone on vegetation, it is important to evaluate the stomatal uptake of ozone. Although the stomatal flux is a dominant pathway of ozone deposition onto vegetated surfaces, non-stomatal uptake mechanisms such as soil and cuticular deposition also play a vital role, especially when the leaf area index \({LAI}< 4\). In this study, we partitioned the canopy conductance into stomatal and non-stomatal components. To calculate the stomatal conductance of water vapour for sparse vegetation, we firstly partitioned the latent heat flux into effects of transpiration and evaporation using the Shuttleworth–Wallace (SW) model. We then derived the stomatal conductance of ozone using the Penman–Monteith (PM) theory based on the similarity to water vapour conductance. The non-stomatal conductance was calculated by subtracting the stomatal conductance from the canopy conductance derived from directly-measured fluxes. Our results show that for short vegetation (LAI \(=\) 0.25) dry deposition of ozone was dominated by the non-stomatal flux, which exceeded the stomatal flux even during the daytime. At night the stomatal uptake of ozone was found to be negligibly small. In the case of vegetation with \({LAI}\approx 1\), the daytime stomatal and non-stomatal fluxes were of the same order of magnitude. These results emphasize that non-stomatal processes must be considered even in the case of well-developed vegetation where cuticular uptake is comparable in magnitude with stomatal uptake, and especially in the case of vegetated surfaces with \({LAI}< 4\) where soil uptake also has a role in ozone deposition.  相似文献   

A GIS-based fire spread simulator integrating a simplified physical wildland fire model and a wind field model     

D. Prieto Herráez  L. Ferragut Canals  J. M. Cascón Barbero  A. Morillo Rodríguez 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(11):2142-2163

??This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.  相似文献