The Pangean ice age: studies with a coupled climate-ice sheet model     

W. T. Hyde  T. J. Crowley  L. Tarasov  W. R. Peltier 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(9):619-629

 Application of an ice sheet model developed for the Pleistocene to the extensive Carboniferous glaciation on Gondwana yields an ice sheet which has several features consistent with observations. While complete deglaciation is not achieved without CO₂ changes, the Milankovich-induced fluctuations in ice sheet volume are comparable to Pleistocene glacial/ interglacial signals. This result is shown to hold for a large fraction of physically reasonable parameter space. The model also exhibits multiple equilibria and sharp bifurcations, as infinitesimal changes in the solar constant or precipitation can lead to a qualitatively different climate. The success of the model in predicting ice location in an environment quite different from the Pleistocene provides additional support for the robustness of the basic model physics and suggests that the model can be applied with some confidence to other pre-Pleistocene glaciations. Received: 30 June 1998 / Accepted: 5 January 1999  相似文献   

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum     

Clotaire Michel  Helen Crowley  Pia Hannewald  Pierino Lestuzzi  Donat Fäh 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4639-4660

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.  相似文献   

Quantification of Tsunami Bathymetry Effect on Finite Fault Slip Inversion     

Quentin Bletery  Anthony Sladen  Bertrand Delouis  Lionel Mattéo 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(12):3655-3670

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Exploring the impact of spatial correlations and uncertainties for portfolio analysis in probabilistic seismic loss estimation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

G. A. Weatherill  V. Silva  H. Crowley  P. Bazzurro 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(4):957-981

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Comparison of the Hill–Siscoe polar cap potential theory with the Weimer and AMIE models     

Michael C. Kelley  Geoffrey Crowley  Daniel R. Weimer 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(4):302-308

The magnetic storm on November 2004 was characterized by a high solar wind pressure and thus offers a unique opportunity to test the Hill–Siscoe formula (H–S) for the polar cap potential (PCP). To estimate the polar cap potential, we use the Weimer Statistical Convection Model (WCM), and the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics Model (AMIE), based on ingestion of a number of data sets. H–S is in excellent agreement with WCM, and with AMIE during times when DMSP is used in the latter. The implication is that the AMIE conductivity model yields conductivities that are too high by a factor of 2–3. Both H–S and WCM display saturation effects, although WCM is more severe. The two methods track well until an IEF of about 20 mV/m occurs, where H–S continues to increase while WCM levels off. Even at high electric field values, the pressure increases the denominator of the H–S formula by 60%, keeping the potential lower than its saturation value. There are several H–S points above 250 kV, even up to 400 kV, that are not found in WCM and occur right after a rapid transition from B_z north to south. For B_z north, we find evidence for a saturation effect on the PCP at large IEF, little effect as a function of solar wind velocity, and an increase of the PCP with increasing pressure. This seems to rule out viscous interaction but may involve geometric changes in the high-altitude polar cusp that affect recombination there for B_z north.  相似文献   

The legacy of crystal-plastic deformation in olivine: high-diffusivity pathways during serpentinization   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Oliver Plümper  Helen E. King  Christian Vollmer  Quentin Ramasse  Haemyeong Jung  Håkon Austrheim 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(4):701-724

Crystal-plastic olivine deformation to produce subgrain boundaries composed of edge dislocations is an inevitable consequence of asthenospheric mantle flow. Although crystal-plastic deformation and serpentinization are spatio-temporally decoupled, we identified compositional readjustments expressed on the micrometric level as a striped Fe-enriched ( [`(X)]<sub>\textFe</sub> \bar{X}_{\text{Fe}}  = 0.24 ± 0.02 (zones); 0.12 ± 0.02 (bulk)) or Fe-depleted ( [`(X)]_\textFe \bar{X}_{\text{Fe}}  = 0.10 ± 0.01 (zones); 0.13 ± 0.01 (bulk)) zoning in partly serpentinized olivine grains from two upper mantle sections in Norway. Focused ion beam sample preparation combined with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and aberration-corrected scanning TEM, enabling atomic-level resolved electron energy-loss spectroscopic line profiling, reveals that every zone is immediately associated with a subgrain boundary. We infer that the zonings are a result of the environmental Fe²⁺Mg₋₁ exchange potential during antigorite serpentinization of olivine and the drive toward element exchange equilibrium. This is facilitated by enhanced solid-state diffusion along subgrain boundaries in a system, which otherwise re-equilibrates via dissolution-reprecipitation. Fe enrichment or depletion is controlled by the silica activity imposed on the system by the local olivine/orthopyroxene mass ratio, temperature and the effect of magnetite stability. The Fe-Mg exchange coefficients K_\textD^{\textAtg/\textOl} K_{\text{D}}^{{{\text{Atg}}/{\text{Ol}}}} between both types of zoning and antigorite display coalescence toward exchange equilibrium. With both types of zoning, Mn is enriched and Ni depleted compared with the unaffected bulk composition. Nanometer-sized, heterogeneously distributed antigorite precipitates along olivine subgrain boundaries suggest that water was able to ingress along them. Crystallographic orientation relationships gained via electron backscatter diffraction between olivine grain domains and different serpentine vein generations support the hypothesis that serpentinization was initiated along olivine subgrain boundaries.  相似文献   

Evolution of a Carboniferous carbonate-hosted sphalerite breccia deposit,Isle of Man     

Kevin L. Shelton  Justin M. Beasley  Jay M. Gregg  Martin S. Appold  Stephen F. Crowley  James P. Hendry  Ian D. Somerville 《Mineralium Deposita》2011,46(8):859-880

A newly discovered, extensive sphalerite-bearing breccia (~7.5 wt.% Zn) is hosted in dolomitised Carboniferous limestones overlying Ordovician–Silurian metasedimentary rocks on the Isle of Man. Although base metal sulphide deposits have been mined historically on the island, they are nearly all quartz vein deposits in the metamorphic basement. This study investigates the origin of the unusual sphalerite breccia and its relationship to basement-hosted deposits, through a combination of petrographic, cathodoluminescence, fluid inclusion, stable isotope and hydrogeologic modelling techniques. Breccia mineralisation comprises four stages, marked by episodes of structural deformation and abrupt changes in fluid temperature and chemistry. In stage I, high-temperature (T _h > 300°C), high-salinity (20–45 wt.% equiv. NaCl) fluid of likely basement origin deposited a discontinuous quartz vein. This vein was subsequently dismembered during a major brecciation event. Stages II–IV are dominated by open-space filling sphalerite, quartz and dolomite, respectively. Fluid inclusions in these minerals record temperatures of ~105–180°C and salinities of ~15–20 wt.% equiv. NaCl. The δ³⁴S values of sphalerite (6.5–6.9‰ Vienna-Canyon Diablo troilite) are nearly identical to those of ore sulphides from mines in the Lower Palaeozoic metamorphic rocks. The δ¹⁸O values for quartz and dolomite indicate two main fluid sources in the breccia’s hydrothermal system, local Carboniferous-hosted brines (~0.5–6.0‰ Vienna standard mean ocean water) and basement-involved fluids (~5.5–11.5‰). Ore sulphide deposition in the breccia is compatible with the introduction and cooling of a hot, basement-derived fluid that interacted with local sedimentary brines.  相似文献   

Lattice distortion in a zircon population and its effects on trace element mobility and U–Th–Pb isotope systematics: examples from the Lewisian Gneiss Complex, northwest Scotland     

John M. MacDonald  John Wheeler  Simon L. Harley  Elisabetta Mariani  Kathryn M. Goodenough  Quentin Crowley  Daniel Tatham 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,166(1):21-41

Zircon is a key mineral in geochemical and geochronological studies in a range of geological settings as it is mechanically and chemically robust. However, distortion of its crystal lattice can facilitate enhanced diffusion of key elements such as U and Pb. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis of ninety-nine zircons from the Lewisian Gneiss Complex (LGC) of northwest Scotland has revealed five zircons with lattice distortion. The distortion can take the form of gradual bending of the lattice or division of the crystal into subgrains. Zircon lattices are distorted because of either post-crystallisation plastic distortion or growth defects. Three of the five distorted zircons, along with many of the undistorted zircons in the population, were analysed by ion microprobe to measure U and Pb isotopes, Ti and REEs. Comparison of Th/U ratio, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age, REE profile and Ti concentration between zircons with and without lattice distortion suggests that the distortion is variably affecting the concentration of these trace elements and isotopes within single crystals, within samples and between localities. REE patterns vary heterogeneously, sometimes relatively depleted in heavy REEs or lacking a Eu anomaly. Ti-in-zircon thermometry records temperatures that were either low (~700 °C) or high (>900 °C) relative to undistorted zircons. One distorted zircon records apparent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb isotopic ages (?3.0 to +0.3 % discordance) in the range of ~2,420–2,450 Ma but this does not correlate with any previously dated tectonothermal event in the LGC. Two other distorted zircons give discordant ages of 2,331 ± 22 and 2,266 ± 40 Ma, defining a discordia lower intercept within error of a late amphibolite-facies tectonothermal event. This illustrates that Pb may be mobilised in distorted zircons at lower metamorphic grade than in undistorted zircons. These differences in trace element abundances and isotope systematics in distorted zircons relative to undistorted zircons are generally interpreted to have been facilitated by subgrain walls. Trace elements and isotopes would have moved from undistorted lattice into these subgrain walls as their chemical potential is modified due to the presence of the dislocations which make up the subgrain wall. Subgrain walls provided pathways for chemical exchange between crystal and surroundings. Only five per cent of zircons in this population have lattice distortion suggesting it will not have a major impact on zircon geochronology studies, particularly as three of the five distorted zircons are from strongly deformed rocks not normally sampled in such studies. However, this does suggest there may be a case for EBSD analysis of zircons prior to geochemical analysis when zircons from highly deformed rocks are to be investigated.  相似文献   

CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

T. J. Crowley 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(4):241-255

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999  相似文献   

Annual variations in water storage and precipitation in the Amazon Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John W. Crowley  Jerry X. Mitrovica  Richard C. Bailey  Mark E. Tamisiea  James L. Davis 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(1):9-13

We combine satellite gravity data from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and precipitation measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), over the period from mid-2002 to mid-2006, to investigate the relative importance of sink (runoff and evaporation) and source (precipitation) terms in the hydrological balance of the Amazon Basin. When linear and quadratic terms are removed, the time-series of land water storage variations estimated from GRACE exhibits a dominant annual signal of 250 mm peak-to-peak, which is equivalent to a water volume change of ~1,800 km³. A comparison of this trend with accumulated (i.e., integrated) precipitation shows excellent agreement and no evidence of basin saturation. The agreement indicates that the net runoff and evaporation contributes significantly less than precipitation to the annual hydrological mass balance. Indeed, raw residuals between the de-trended water storage and precipitation anomalies range from ±40 mm. This range is consistent with stream-flow measurements from the region, although the latter are characterized by a stronger annual signal than our residuals, suggesting that runoff and evaporation may act to partially cancel each other.  相似文献