Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems     

阮家荣  王家  区兆驹 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2007,6(4):391-400

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地南缘中-新生界碎屑成份特征与构造期次   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  

方世虎  贾承造  宋岩  郭召杰  袁述武  王绪龙 《地质科学》2007,42(4):753-765

准噶尔盆地南缘晚侏罗世-早白垩世早期、晚白垩世及晚新生代发育的近源粗碎屑沉积显示构造活动的存在。野外剖面及镜下碎屑成份统计表明:砾岩的砾石成份、砂岩碎屑成份的物源属性主要是再旋回造山带和晚古生代的岩浆弧,但盆地南缘东段与西段的岩屑组成及物源属性存在较大的差异。其中,沉积岩岩屑在晚侏罗世—早白垩世早期、晚白垩世和晚新生代发生了相应的增加,显示盆缘沉积岩物源的隆升—剥蚀作用和构造活动的相对活跃。砂岩碎屑特征、重矿物相对含量及重矿物组合特征证明盆地南缘东、西两段的物源属性存在较大差异,特别是不稳定重矿物的增加显示晚侏罗世-早白垩世早期、晚白垩世和晚新生代为构造相对活跃的构造环境。综合中-新生界沉积碎屑特征及差异分析,准噶尔盆地南缘中-新生代盆山格局发生了3次较大的转变过程,分别对应于上述3个时期。中-新生代3次构造活动对含油气系统形成具有重要控制作用,构造活动期次与油气藏形成、调整的期次也有良好的对应关系。  相似文献   

中国滑雪场可达性及市场潜力测度   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

窦文康  王世金  韩彤彤  颉佳 《地理科学》2021,41(2):319-327

利用可达性分析方法与潜力模型对中国滑雪场空间分布格局与市场潜力进行了系统分析,全面认识了滑雪场在交通可达性方面的优劣势,并针对不同区域提出了相应的发展或改进方向.研究表明:中国滑雪场距离城市中心的平均最短旅行时间为1.24 h,南方可达性普遍较差,北方同一城市内部差异较大.全国各城市到达某一滑雪场的最短时间呈圈层式分布...  相似文献   

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China     

HUANG Lin  NING Jia  ZHU Ping  ZHENG Yuhan  ZHAI Jun 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(4):518-534

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.  相似文献   

Evidence for the 8,200 a <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b</Emphasis>.<Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">p</Emphasis>. cooling event in the middle Okinawa Trough     

Hua?YuEmail author  Yingqian?Xiong  Zhenxia?Liu  Serge?Berné  Chi-Yue?Huang  Guodong?Jia 《Geo-Marine Letters》2008,28(3):131-136

Based on new and existing data on oxygen isotopes, alkenone-surface seawater temperature trends, planktonic foraminifers, lithology, and clay mineral composition of piston cores, a distinct cooling event has been identified around 8,200 cal a b.p. in the middle Okinawa Trough, northwest Pacific. This corresponds to the 8,200 a b.p. cooling event recorded in many places of the Northern Hemisphere. During this event, the local temperature decreased by 1°C, and the δ¹⁸O value increased by 0.6‰. A strengthened Asian winter monsoon is the most probable cause for this event, which thus adds further credibility to the contention that we are dealing here with a global phenomenon.  相似文献   

美术与感觉寻求的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐佳  高劲松  徐中敏  施建农  张雨青 《广东海洋大学学报》2008,28(5)

阐述了感觉寻求研究中与绘画有关的研究,分析感觉寻求人格与绘画的复杂度、风格倾向、内容的积极性以及艺术的不确定性之间的关系,认为美术学习可能会影响到人格的发展趋势,影响其创造性人格特质的形成。  相似文献   

海洋水色遥感图像伪彩化方法的研究     

尹中林  毛天明  陆嘉 《海洋学研究》2008,26(4):41-48

分析了国内外有关信息伪彩化应用的研究现状后认为:海洋水色遥感图像的伪彩化应该是基于任务的,也只有基于任务的伪彩化才能保证伪彩化结果的准确性。基于任务的伪彩化要求必须从伪彩化相关的3个对象(信息、色彩与用户)所具有的特点出发,确定有针对性的伪彩化实现方案。在综合考虑了伪彩化3个对象的特点后,提出海洋水色遥感图像的伪彩化可以分3种方案进行伪彩化设计,每种方案都有自己的针对性、使用范围及局限性。方案1是针对对海洋信息作定量分析而提出来的,主要用于揭示海洋信息中的高频快变成分,同时兼顾揭示信息中的低频成分,被分析信息的波动幅度不大。方案2是针对对海洋信息作定性分析而提出的,不强求对信息量的准确量化,更多关心的是海洋信息相互间的关系,因此要求色标具有很高的信息表现力。方案3是方案1及方案2的补充,方案1具有定量能力,但总色差较小,对信息的解析能力有限,方案2虽然有较大的总色差,具有较好的解析能力,但只有定性能力,方案3将在保持局部区域的定量特点外,扩大整体的总色差。在伪彩化或可视化设计中,主要是关心数据信息中最引人注意的部分也即突出最重要的部分,在大多数情况下,用户对数据信息的低端及高端更感兴趣,这也是方案3中双反色调色板设计及使用的基础。3种方案的针对性设计将方便伪彩化在水色遥感信息分析中的准确、快捷使用。文章最后通过例子证明,在对海洋水色遥感信息的分析和研究中,选择3个方案中的1种或几种作适当的调整,海洋水色遥感信息可以得到较好的诠释。  相似文献   

黄河水下三角洲海底管道沉降量确定方法研究     

张建  常方强  贾永刚 《海岸工程》2008,27(3):39-46

提出一种海底管道沉降计算方法——递推法,应用到胜利油田埕岛海域海底管道沉降计算中,并将计算结果与目前常用的日本规范法和极限法进行比较。研究发现在粉土与粉质粘土为主的强度较高的海床上,递推法与日本规范法计算结果比较接近,极限法的最小;在淤泥质土组成的强度较低的海床上,日本规范法的计算值最大,递推法的居中,极限法的最小。逆推法可计算裸置和埋设两种形式的管道沉降量,而另外两者只能计算裸置管道的沉降。文中进一步讨论了引起管道沉降的影响因素,土体强度和压缩性对管道沉降影响较大。且管道埋深越大,沉降也越大。最后分析了黄河水下三角洲埕岛海域4个区的管道沉降量,Ⅰ区争Ⅱ区管道沉降较小,可以忽略,Ⅳ区沉降较大,在淤泥质软土上的管道,可能会完全陷入土中。  相似文献   

长山群岛海区春季水温垂直结构分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李庆红  赵宏杰  张磊  蔡佳 《海洋技术学报》2008,27(1):101-105

利用海军大连舰艇学院2006年4月长山群岛海区的CTD调查资料,系统分析了该季节长山群岛海区的温度垂直结构,并探讨了其形成机理。分析指出:4月上、中旬是长山群岛海区季节性温跃层的生成期,群岛东侧和南侧边缘受黄海冷水团形成过程的影响,温跃层的出现概率和跃层强度都远远高于群岛内部;在生成时机上,群岛东侧和南侧边缘海域早于群岛内部水域。中间层和底层海水温度的垂直结构与海流有着很好的相关性,在海洋平流的作用下,海区会产生正跃层、逆跃层、冷中间层、暖中间层等复杂的温度垂直结构。上层海水温度结构主要受海面风场和气温的影响,较强的热辐射和充分的风力搅拌能够加速温跃层的生成。  相似文献   

A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas     

Clara Deal 《极地研究(英文版)》2008,19(2):218-229

Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments： three phytoplankton （pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae： D, F, and Ai） , three zooplankton （copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton ： ZS, ZL, ZP） , three nutrients （ nitrate ＋ nitrite, ammonium, silicon ： NO3 , NH4, Si） and detritus （Det）. The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.  相似文献