多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

王改利  刘黎平阮征 《应用气象学报》2007,18(3):388-395

强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气是造成洪涝灾害最主要的降水天气系统。以广州雷达和梅州雷达的拼图资料以及温州单站雷达资料为基础, 讨论了TREC方法中时间步长、网格大小及雨强阈值等参数变化对跟踪结果的影响, 并对TREC矢量场进行了平滑处理, 这在一定程度上减少了TREC矢量场中由于地物回波和回波梯度变化造成的一些明显错误的矢量, 得到较为连续的矢量场, 并将得到的矢量场用于暴雨的临近预报。个例分析及预报结果的验证表明:通过选择合适的参数, 雨强CAPPI、反射率因子CAPPI和CR 3种资料得到的TREC矢量场一致性好, 能够反映我国的强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨的移动方向。CR资料的外推预报结果稍差于其他两者, 3种资料预报的准确性都随着预报时间的递增而降低, 对连续时刻的TREC矢量进行拟合, 有助于提高预报准确率。TREC方法对于结构比较复杂、不易识别的台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气, 在预警方面具有一定应用价值。  相似文献   

瀑布沟水库蓄水前中小地震震源参数研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谢蓉华  阮祥  张致伟  杜瑶 《地震地磁观测与研究》2013,34(1)

研究瀑布沟水库蓄水前库区地震的活动性以及震源机制、应力场等震源参数的性质,为水库蓄水之后可能诱发地震活动的监测、成因及类型鉴别给出可供依据的参考.研究结果显示,水库库尾边缘西部地震活动水平相对较高;库中段的中小地震活动水平相对较弱;大坝附近的库首段地震活动水平相对较低,震源深度主要集中在5-15 km.研究区内小震震源机制解结果显示,瀑布沟水库蓄水前小震主要为走滑型地震,蓄水区与研究区平均应力场总体呈NW方向.  相似文献   

Modeling residual circulation and stratification in Oujiang River estuary     

林伟波  王义刚  阮晓红  徐群 《中国海洋工程》2012,26(2):351-362

A 3D,time-dependent,baroclinic,hydrodynamic and salinity model was implemented and applied to the Oujiang River estuarine system in the East China Sea.The model was driven by the forcing of tidal elevations along the open boundaries and freshwater inflows from the Oujiang River.The bottom friction coefficient and vertical eddy viscosity were adjusted to complete model calibration and verification in simulations.It is demonstrated that the model is capable of reproducing observed temporal variability in the water surface elevation and longitudinal velocity,presenting skill coefficient higher than 0.82.This model was then used to investigate the influence of freshwater discharge on residual current and salinity intrusion under different freshwater inflow conditions in the Oujiang River estuary.The model results reveal that the river channel presents a two-layer structure with flood currents near the bottom and ebb currents at the top layer in the region of seawater influenced on north shore under high river flow condition.The river discharge is a major factor affecting the salinity stratification in the estuarine system.The water exchange is mainly driven by the tidal forcing at the estuary mouth,except under high river flow conditions when the freshwater extends its influence from the river’s head to its mouth.  相似文献   

Evaluation models of insurers’ risk management based on large system theory     

Xiaobei Liang  Demian Chen  Da Ruan  Bingyong Tang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):415-423

The financial supply chain is increasingly recognized as an area offering significant potential for generating bottom-line improvements and creating competitive advantage. Insurers’ appraisal is one of the basic decisions for a company, and the choosing course has always many criterions. Considering the stability of the financial supply chain, the coordination evaluation and fuzzy multi-objective evaluation model of insurers’ risk management are firstly studied in this paper by using large system theory and methods. The corresponding coordination evaluation index model is then established to evaluate, forecast and control the actuality and the future of risk coordination management, and to improve the durative development for a combination pension model. The evaluation standards of numerous insurers are established to constitute a set of vectors. By presenting a dimensional point to each insurer, the optimal or the worst insurer is decided. Finally, the distances of each insurer to the optimal or the worst insurer on the basis of the Euclidean distance are counted, and the insurers’ ordering according to the value of distances is sorted out. The financial supply chain and large system theory and methods are combined to contribute new evaluation models that revise the deficiency of intrinsic model and improve the financial stability.  相似文献   

Research of the Activity of Earthquakes Induced by Water Injection of Salt Mining in Changning County,Sichuan Province     

Ruan Xiang  Cheng Wanzheng  Zhang Yongjiu  Li Jun  Chen Yin 《中国地震研究》2009,23(2):170-179

According to information from on-the-spot investigations, the tectonics of salt mining areas and digital seismic records, we studied the activity of earthquakes induced by water pumping in and out of the salt mines in Shuanghe town, Changning county, Sichuan Province. The study found that the rates of water injection and extraction in the Shuanghe salt mining region were evenly matched before April 2006 and earthquake activity was stable. On the other hand, shallow small and moderate earthquake numbers increased sharply after the water injection rate became much larger than the water extraction rate. Large injection over a long time may causes the permeation of water through pre-existing small fractures and micro-cracks in the Changning anticlinal and accelerate the rupture of micro tectonic formations in nearby regions, inducing small earthquake swarm activity. The Q value calculated by using digital earthquake records indicates a relatively inhomogeneous medium in this area. The results of the accurate location of small earthquakes show that sources are relatively shallow and are concentrated at a depth of 2km to 3km. Focal mechanism solutions reveal a normal dip-slip character of shallow earthquakes. All of these show certain characteristics of earthquake activity induced by water injection.  相似文献   

Research on the Dynamic Change of Regional Stress Fields before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake     

Cheng Wanzheng  Ruan Xiang  Qiao Huizhen  Zhang Zhiwei  Zhang Yongjiu 《中国地震研究》2009,23(3):244-256

Using the digital telemetric seismic waveform data of Chengdu and Kunming, this article studies the focal mechanism solutions and the apparent stress values of a large number of small earthquakes, and then analyzes the dynamic variation of regional stress fields and the spatio-temporal distribution of apparent stress values. The annual variation values of the azimuth of average principal stress field before the May 12, 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in the Sichuan-Yunnan region were 58° from 2003 to 2004, 85° from 2003 to 2005,61° from 2006 to 2007 and 90° from 2006 to April 2008 respectively. In recent years, deflection or disturbances occurred in the azimuth of the average principal stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Analysis shows that this may be related to the change of stress field states of crustal blocks before and after the December 26, 2004 M_S9.0 Sumatra earthquake and the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. The ratio of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichuan-Qinghai block was on the higher side in the period from 2006 to 2007, and the source faulting type of the regional moderate and small earthquakes had changed before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. The change of state of the stress field is consistent with the changes in block displacement fields revealed by GPS data and the crustal shortening velocity vertical to the Longmenshan fault zone. Based on the radiation energy calculated from all bands of the seismic waveform, the value of apparent stress σ_app is obtained. The fluctuation shape of the fitting trend of the apparent stress is related to the intensity of regional seismicity. It reveals that the micro-dynamic fluctuation process of the regional stress value is similar to the azimuth transition of the regional principal compressive stress field, which can be used to probe for pregnant physical processes. Areas with a higher value of apparent stress σ_app are possible areas of potential seismic risk. It can be seen from the spatial distribution of the medium and short-term apparent stress σ_app before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the Longmenshan fault zone is in a low stress distribution area, and the relatively high apparent stress is in the peripheral area. These images may show medium and short-term locking phenomena near the seismogenic tectonics of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. For example, changes with time of the focal parameter consistency of the sub-blocks in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, continual increase of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichuan-Qinghai block and the appearance of spatial distribution areas of high apparent σ_app stress. The work on this aspect was continued after the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, and the results seem to be shown a clearer relationship between these phenomena and future great earthquakes.  相似文献   

汶川地震序列b值的分析研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王俊  阮祥  郑江蓉  孙业君  江昊琳  詹小艳 《地震地磁观测与研究》2009,30(2):15-21

采用Aki等（1965）和Shi等（1982）计算b值及标准差的方法,分析了2008年5月12日～2008年8月31日四川地震台网所记录到的汶川地震序列ML≥2．0地震的b值,在空间、时间以及随震源深度的变化特征。结果显示：汶川地震序列b值在震源区上分布是非均匀的,但基本在[0．5,0．9]之间变化,震源区的中段b值高于两端;同时发现,几次M≥6．0余震都发生在b值较低的区域内;震源区b值具有随震源深度增加而减小的趋势,在20km左右处,减小的趋势最为明显;随着时间的推移,b值波动变化幅度逐渐减小,周期变大。  相似文献   

风廓线雷达探测大气返回信号谱的仿真模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王莎  阮征  葛润生 《应用气象学报》2012,23(1):20-29

利用2008年1—9月北京延庆地区对流层CFL-08风廓线雷达和2009年7—12月广东东莞地区边界层CFL-03风廓线雷达晴空大气探测资料,对大气返回信号功率谱密度分布及雷达系统噪声幅度统计特征进行分析。基于大气返回信号的谱分布符合高斯分布的统计结果,采用高斯模型对大气返回信号谱进行模拟;雷达系统噪声是白噪声,其谱线幅度的统计特征呈高斯分布,在此基础上,通过生成高斯分布随机函数对雷达探测输出信号进行信号谱分布的仿真模拟,并采用雷达探测信号的谱参数对仿真模拟进行检验,效果较好。该文应用仿真模拟的数据,对风廓线雷达信息处理方法及其处理精度进行了初步试验和分析。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘中晚三叠世物源演变及其地质意义^*          下载免费PDF全文

刘帅  阮壮  杨志辉  吴雨轩  李怡佳  韩淑筠 《古地理学报》2019,21(6):939-958

针对鄂尔多斯盆地南缘中晚三叠世物源构成转化及盆山耦合机制不清的问题,选取了铜川地区金锁关剖面和周至柳叶河剖面的延长组砂岩为研究对象,运用岩石学、碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学的方法,探讨鄂尔多斯盆地南部延长组的物源构成和变化,并探寻其构造耦合机制。结果表明,金锁关剖面上三叠统碎屑锆石可分为5个年龄段,分别是237-330 Ma、390-480 Ma、870-1230 Ma、1740-1980 Ma、2070-2732 Ma,中三叠统碎屑锆石共具有4个年龄段,分别是240-290 Ma、1760-1840 Ma、2250-2300 Ma、2350-2700 Ma;盆地南端柳叶河地区上三叠统碎屑锆石共具有5个年龄段,分别是244-310 Ma、360-600 Ma、800-1300 Ma、1700-2100 Ma和2450-2550 Ma。通过物源对比发现,中三叠世鄂尔多斯盆地南缘的物源来自于华北克拉通、兴蒙造山带和阿拉善地区,晚三叠世沉积砂体的物源来自华北克拉通、阿拉善、兴蒙造山带、西秦岭、北秦岭以及祁连造山带,且岩石学特征和源区构造背景的转变均支持这一认识。这种物源的转变,与中三叠世盆地南部秦岭造山带的活化以及盆地样式的转变有关。  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-wave velocity structure and tectonic implications of the northwestern sub-basin and Macclesfield of the South China Sea     

Xiaodong Wei  Aiguo Ruan  Jiabiao Li  Xiongwei Niu  Zhenli Wu  Weiwei Ding 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2017,38(1-2):125-136

Based on the optimum P-wave model, the S-wave velocity structure of a wide angle seismic profile (OBS2006-1), across the northwestern sub-basin (NWSB) and the Macclesfield, is simulated by a 2-D ray-tracing method. The results indicate the S-wave velocities in the upper and lower crust of the NWSB are 3.2–3.6 km/s and 3.6–4.0 km/s, with Vp/Vs ratios of 1.82–1.88 and 1.74–1.82, respectively, which reflect typical oceanic crust characteristics. The S-wave velocity in the upper crust of the NWSB is a little higher in the NNW segment than that in the SSE segment, while the lateral variation of Vp/Vs ratio is in the opposite. We suggest that the NWSB might have experienced asymmetrical magma flows during sea floor spreading, which may have blurred the magnetic anomaly lineation. The comparison of S-wave velocities along the northern margin of the SCS shows that the west section is different from the east section, and the northwestern margin has a non-volcanic crust structure. The S-wave structures and P-wave velocity models along the northern margin, Macclesfield and Reed Bank show that the Macclesfield might have a conjugate relationship with the Reed Bank.  相似文献