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One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude μ is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude mmax for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of μ for the time interval Tf in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence α?=?0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times Tf to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude mmax?=?8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of μ in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1???α?=?0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of μ is around μ?=?7.16???8.23 in all seismic zones. 相似文献
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A review and analysis of post-stack time-lapse time-shifts has been carried out that covers published literature supplemented by in-house datasets available to the authors. Time-shift data are classified into those originating from geomechanical effects and those due to fluid saturation changes. From these data, conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of post-stack time-shifts for overburden and reservoir monitoring purposes. A variety of field examples are shown that display the range and magnitude of variation for each class of application. The underlying physical mechanisms creating these time-shifts are then described, and linked to a series of generic and field-specific rock physics calculations that predict their magnitudes. These calculations serve as a guide for practitioners wishing to utilize this information on their own datasets. Conclusions are drawn regarding the reliability of this attribute for monitoring purposes, and the extent to which further development is required and how it should be reported by authors. 相似文献
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River confluences (RCs) are important features within river systems where the three dimensional (3D) flow structures and the downstream mixing of flows can cause deep scour holes. Despite this, few methods have been proposed to control scouring at RCs. In this study, application of a collar was experimentally examined for local scour control at the point where two rivers flow together. In parti-cular, experimental tests were done with and without collar application at three different locations. The results reveal that the scour depth is directly proportional to the discharge ratio, i.e. the ratio of lateral discharge to that in the channel downstream of the confluence, and the densimetric Froude number (Frg). In addition, installation of a collar at RCs can decrease the scour depth up to 100%, thus completely avoiding the scour process. The results also show that by increasing the Frg the optimal installation location for a collar changes and moves towards the river bed level. Using a collar can also reduce the height of the point bar formed downstream of the confluence. The outcomes of the study allow deri-vation of an equation for predicting scour depth when a collar is applied as a countermeasure. The analysis of this equation shows that the estimates are mostly affected by the Frg. 相似文献
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Klaus Peter Jochum Steven A. Wilson Wafa Abouchami Marghaleray Amini Jérome Chmeleff Anton Eisenhauer Ernst Hegner Linda M. Iaccheri Bruno Kieffer Joachim Krause William F. McDonough Regina Mertz‐Kraus Ingrid Raczek Roberta L. Rudnick Denis Scholz Grit Steinhoefel Brigitte Stoll Andreas Stracke Sonia Tonarini Dominique Weis Ulrike Weis Jon D. Woodhead 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2011,35(2):193-226
This paper contains the results of an extensive isotopic study of United States Geological Survey GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING reference glasses. Thirteen different laboratories were involved using high‐precision bulk (TIMS, MC‐ICP‐MS) and microanalytical (LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, LA‐ICP‐MS) techniques. Detailed studies were performed to demonstrate the large‐scale and small‐scale homogeneity of the reference glasses. Together with previously published isotopic data from ten other laboratories, preliminary reference and information values as well as their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level were determined for H, O, Li, B, Si, Ca, Sr, Nd, Hf, Pb, Th and U isotopes using the recommendations of the International Association of Geoanalysts for certification of reference materials. Our results indicate that GSD‐1G and the MPI‐DING glasses are suitable reference materials for microanalytical and bulk analytical purposes. 相似文献
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In this paper, an approach is presented to analyze the stability risk of rock slopes based on a new rating system. Three factors are used to estimate the risk level of rock slopes: (1) failure probability, (2) element at risk rating, and (3) vulnerability rating. Element at risk and vulnerability ratings are both given a range from 0 to 10, and the probability of failure is varied between 0 and 1, so the risk rating ranges between 0 and 100. This risk rating can be used to determine both the quantitative and qualitative risk levels of slopes at the same time. The method is tested on the western sector of the slopes facing Songun copper plant phase III, Iran, to clarify its procedures and assess its validity. Deterministic kinematic analyses showed that the slope has a potential for circular failure. Risk assessments revealed that the risk levels of the slope in both static and pseudo-static conditions are “very low” and “high,” respectively. 相似文献
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Introducing a new method to determine rivers’ ecological water requirement in comparison with hydrological and hydraulic methods 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A. Shokoohi M. Amini 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2014,11(3):747-756
The absence of a rational, comprehensive, flexible and easy to use method with minimum data requirement to determine rivers’ environmental flow requirements is the main motivation for this research. Based on the microhabitat preferences of index species, hydrological (the Tennant and Q 95) and hydraulic methods for determining the environmental flow requirement (EFR) are compared. Using an ad hoc procedure, the important species of a river at the southern part of the Caspian Sea in Iran were distinguished, and the discharges to maintain the microhabitat (depth and velocity) in critical months were calculated. The observed differences between the index species’ required velocity and depth and those suggested by the Tennant method emphasize the importance of the rivers morphological properties for this method application. Allocating EFR by the Tennant and Q 95 methods would degrade the aquatic life. The EFR determined by the hydraulic method is equal to 95 % of the average annual discharge, which could maintain the ecological habitat in good situation, but may provoke a conflict in the region. The Tennant, Q 95 and hydraulic methods allocate EFR as 14, 36 and 79 % of the annual flow volume, respectively. Developing a new combined method based on using the hydraulic method’s discharge for critical months and the Tennant method suggestion for the excellent condition in other months allocates 50 % of the average annual discharge. This new method is a compromise between protecting environment and considering the water rights of rivers’ flow consumers and is suggested specially for dry regions of the world. 相似文献
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H. Aghababaee J. Amini Y. C. Tzeng J. T. Sri Sumantyo 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2013,41(4):739-747
The paper presents an effective way of detecting the changes of multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. An accurate unsupervised change detection method that combines the intensity information and the fractal dimension of SAR images is proposed based on the fractal genetic model (FGM). The model computes firstly the local fractal dimension of the SAR images to obtain the fractal image and next a new proposed measure (D) is calculated from the normalized ratio of SAR images and the normalized difference of fractal images. Finally, the change map is derived by minimizing a cost function using a genetic algorithm (GA) on the derived image from the measure. Experimental results of detecting changes from SAR images acquired by ASAR on board ENVISAT and ALOS-PALSAR reveal that the proposed method is an effective and efficient tool for change detection from SAR images. 相似文献
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Brigitte Stoll Klaus Peter Jochum Kirstin Herwig Marghaleray Amini Michael Flanz Berthold Kreuzburg Dmitry Kuzmin Matthias Willbold Jacinta Enzweiler 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2008,32(1):5-26
In this paper we describe a flux‐free fusion technique for the highly precise LA‐ICP‐MS bulk analysis of geological samples. For this purpose we have developed an automated iridium‐strip heater with temperature and melt time control. To optimise the homogeneity of the fused glasses and to reduce possible depletion of volatile elements during melting, we undertook experiments with basaltic rock and glass powders using different melting temperatures (1300–1700 °C) and melting times (5‐80 s). Major and trace element microanalysis was performed using EPMA and LA‐ICP‐MS. Homogeneous glasses were obtained for temperatures ≥ 1500 °C and melting times ≥ 10 s. High loss (20‐90%) of highly volatile elements (e.g., Cs, Ge, Sn, Pb) was observed for high melting temperatures (≥ 1600 °C) and long melting times (80 s). Standard melting conditions (1600 °C, 10 s) represent a compromise, as the glasses were homogeneous with respect to major and trace elements and, at the same time, were not depleted in elements with condensation temperatures (at a pressure of 10?4 bar) higher than about 900 K (e.g., Zr, Hf, Ba, Sr, REE, U, Mo, Ni, Rb, Ga). Several international geological reference materials with SiO2 ranging between 47% m/m and 59% m/m were prepared using our standard melting conditions (1600 °C, 10 s) and subsequently analysed by LA‐ICP‐MS. These samples also include the new Brazilian basaltic reference material BRP‐1. Matrix‐matched calibration of the LA‐ICP‐MS data was performed using the basaltic reference glasses KL2‐G, ML3B‐G, BCR‐2G and BHVO‐2G. Most analytical data agreed within uncertainty at the 95% confidence level with the GeoReM preferred values published in the GeoReM database for reference materials of geological and environmental interest. To demonstrate routine bulk LA‐ICP‐MS analyses of geochemical and cosmochemical samples using the whole rock fusion technique, we also present trace element data for ocean island basalts from Lanai (Hawaii) and of Martian meteorites. 相似文献