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1.
Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany 
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下载免费PDF全文 Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Induction of vitellogenin in vivo and in vitro in the model teleost medaka (Oryzias latipes): comparison of gene expression and protein levels 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Quantification of the egg yolk precursor vitellogenin (VTG) in fish has become a standard technique to detect estrogenic effects of known chemicals and environmental samples. In the present study, we have analysed VTG induction by estradiol, ethynylestradiol and genistein exposure in the model teleost medaka (Oryzias latipes) and demonstrate that the medaka is a suitable model system to analyse estrogenic effects. By comparing VTG gene expression and protein levels we show that in principal both techniques can be used to study VTG induction in vivo (juvenile and adult males) and in vitro (primary cultures of male liver cells). If a short term in vivo or in vitro exposure is performed, detection of mRNA might be sufficient. For long term studies with the need to detect weak estrogenic chemicals and a precise quantification, immuno-chemical detection may be favoured. 相似文献
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Estuaries act as an organic matter and nutrient filter in the transition between the land, rivers and the ocean. In the past, high nutrient and organic carbon load and low oxygen concentration made the Elbe River estuary (NW Europe) a sink for dissolved inorganic nitrogen. A recent reduction in loads and subsequent recovery of the estuary changed its biogeochemical function, so that nitrate is no longer removed on its transition towards the coastal North Sea. Nowadays in the estuary, nitrification appears to be a significant nitrate source. To quantify nitrification and determine actively nitrifying regions in the estuary, we measured the concentrations of ammonium, nitrite and nitrate, the dual stable isotopes of nitrate and net nitrification rates in the estuary on five cruises from August 2012 to August 2013. The nitrate concentration increased markedly downstream of the port of Hamburg in summer and spring, accompanied by a decrease of nitrate isotope values that was clearest in summer exactly at the location where nitrate concentration started to increase. Ammonium and nitrite peaked in the Hamburg port region (up to 18 and 8 μmol L?1, respectively), and nitrification rates in this region were up to 7 μmol L?1 day?1. Our data show that coupled re-mineralization and nitrification are significant internal nitrate sources that almost double the estuary’s summer nitrate concentration. Furthermore, we find that the port of Hamburg is a hot spot of nitrification, whereas the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ) only plays a subordinate role in turnover of nitrate. 相似文献
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Matthew A.LAZZARA Sophie A.ORENDORF Taylor P.NORTON Jordan G.POWERS David H.BROMWICH Scott CARPENTIER John J.CASSANO Steven R.COLWELL Arthur M.CAYETTE Kirstin WERNER 《大气科学进展》2020,37(5):423-430
1.Overview In July 2018,the Antarctic community came together to meet at the 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)in Madison,Wisconsin,USA(Fig.1);and in the following year in June 2019,the 14th WAMC was held in Charleston,South Carolina,USA(Fig.2).With a growing history,the WAMC addresses the topics of Antarctic meteorology and climate(Kameda et al.,2008;Colwell et al.,2016;Lazzara et al.,2018)as well as weather-related issues of scientific and operational support.The workshops bring together researchers,operational forecasters,numerical modelers,observational specialists,and students.The themes of both workshops included Antarctic meteorological observations,Antarctic atmospheric numerical modeling,Antarctic meteorological and climate research,and Antarctic weather forecasting and operational services.The 2018 and 2019 WAMC were both followed by a one-day focus on the Year of Polar Prediction-Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH),when preparations and follow-up discussions were made with regard to the YOPP Special Observing Period from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019. 相似文献
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Isotopic composition of nitrate in five German rivers discharging into the North Sea 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
We determined concentrations and isotopic composition of nitrate in five German rivers (Rhine, Elbe, Weser, Ems, and Eider) that discharge into the North Sea. Samples were obtained on a biweekly to monthly basis and chemical and isotopic analyses were conducted for the period January 2006 to March 2007 at sampling stations situated before estuarine mixing with North Sea water. We observed maximum nitrate loads in winter and fall, when both discharge and concentration of nitrate are highest. Mean annual isotope values in nitrate ranged from 8.2‰ to 11.3‰ for and 0.4‰ to 2.2‰ for . The ranges of isotope values suggest that nitrate in these rivers derives from soil nitrification, sewage, and/or manure. These and published data on other rivers in northern Europe and northern America reveal a correlation between agricultural land use (>60% in the catchment areas of rivers examined) and values. The rivers Rhine, Elbe, Weser and Ems show similar seasonal patterns of the isotopic fractionation of nitrate with increasing values and simultaneously decreasing concentrations during summer months, indicating that assimilation of nitrate is the main fractionation process of riverine nitrate. Isotopic signals in winter are more depleted than the mean summer isotope values, attributed to less microbial activity and assimilative processes. Load weighted nitrate δ15N of the riverine input to the German Bight Coastal Water mass before estuarine mixing and processing is between 8‰ and 12‰. The high δ15N value of river nitrate is matched by high δ15N of nitrate in surface sediments in the German Bight. 相似文献
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Herwig Dejonghe Anne Mathieu Veronique De Bruyne Sven De Rijcke 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1998,72(3):219-233
We argue that the temperature of the stellar phase is likely a monotically decreasing function of radius in the central regions
of elliptical galaxies with cusps. We show that it requires the presence of a central mass concentration. An estimate of its
minimum mass based on few parameters is given. This lower bound is consistent with current mass values of the central objects
in galaxies derived from detailed models.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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David H.BROMWICH Matthew A.LAZZARA Arthur M.CAYETTE Jordan G.POWERS Kirstin WERNER John J.CASSANO Steven R.COLWELL Scott CARPENTIER Xun ZOU 《大气科学进展》2022,39(3):536-542
1. Overview In June 2021, the 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) and the 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Meeting (http://polarmet.osu.edu/WAMC;021/) were held online and hosted by the Polar Meteorology Group at Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus,Ohio (Fig. 1). 相似文献