排序方式： 共有27条查询结果，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Boris Kargoll Mohammad Omidalizarandi Ina Loth Jens-André Paffenholz Hamza Alkhatib 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(3):271-297
In this paper, we investigate a linear regression time series model of possibly outlier-afflicted observations and autocorrelated random deviations. This colored noise is represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) process, in which the independent error components follow a scaled (Student’s) t-distribution. This error model allows for the stochastic modeling of multiple outliers and for an adaptive robust maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the unknown regression and AR coefficients, the scale parameter, and the degree of freedom of the t-distribution. This approach is meant to be an extension of known estimators, which tend to focus only on the regression model, or on the AR error model, or on normally distributed errors. For the purpose of ML estimation, we derive an expectation conditional maximization either algorithm, which leads to an easy-to-implement version of iteratively reweighted least squares. The estimation performance of the algorithm is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations for a Fourier as well as a spline model in connection with AR colored noise models of different orders and with three different sampling distributions generating the white noise components. We apply the algorithm to a vibration dataset recorded by a high-accuracy, single-axis accelerometer, focusing on the evaluation of the estimated AR colored noise model. 相似文献
2.
Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
The weight-specific respiration rate (μl O2 mg−1 AFDW h−1) of three species of leech from Lake Esrom, Denmark, Glossiphonia concolor, G. complanata and Helobdella stagnalis was measured in a closed stirred chamber with a micro electrode. At declining oxygen concentration (mg O2 l−1) all three species expressed moderate ability to regulate respiration, in G. concolor and G. complanata down to 2 mg O2 l−1, in H. stagnalis down to 0.75 mg O2 l−1. Survival in anoxia was measured in closed bottles. The time to 50% survival (LD50) was 30 days in G. concolor at 20 °C and 30 and 4 days in H. stagnalis at 10 and 20 °C, respectively. The results were discussed in relation to habitat and spatial distribution of the three species in the lake. 相似文献
4.
Neutrino production of radio Cherenkov signals in the Moon is the object of radio telescope observations. Depending on the energy range and detection parameters, the dominant contribution to the neutrino signal may come from interactions of the neutrino on the Moon facing the telescope, rather than neutrinos that have traversed a portion of the Moon. Using the approximate analytic expression of the effective lunar aperture from a recent paper by Gayley, Mutel and Jaeger, we evaluate the background from cosmic ray interactions in the lunar regolith. We also consider the modifications to the effective lunar aperture from generic non-standard model neutrino interactions. A background to neutrino signals are radio Cherenkov signals from cosmic ray interactions. For cosmogenic neutrino fluxes, neutrino signals will be difficult to observe because of low neutrino flux at the high energy end and large cosmic ray background in the lower energy range considered here. We show that lunar radio detection of neutrino interactions is best suited to constrain or measure neutrinos from astrophysical sources and probe non-standard neutrino-nucleon interactions such as microscopic black hole production. 相似文献
5.
6.
7.
8.
Ina Cecić 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(1-2):59-64
In 1986, a project was started concerning the improvement of macroseismic data management in Slovenia. It was decided to establish a network of collaborators all over Slovenia (20 251 km2, approx. 2 million inhabitants), dense enough to allow the use of the MSK scale. Since the uniform spatial distribution with desired density of collaborators is hard to achieve, several methods are being used to obtain new collaborators. At present we have approximately 4100 collaborators in our computer supported database.When an earthquake is felt in Slovenia, the seismologist decides to what areas the questionnaires are to be sent. The prospective observers can be chosen by two criteria: density and quality marks. The density mark allows us to choose a number of observers in the same town or village, based mostly on the quality of answers and demographic conditions. The quality mark is computed, combined with the previous marks, and updated every time a completed questionnaire is returned.The average number of shocks for which the questionnaires are being sent is about 25 per year during the normal seismic activity. The average number of questionnaires is approximately 300 per event. The percentage of the returned questionnaires is above 66%. A user-friendly, interactive program has been developed to manage the database with information about collaborators, to select an area, density and quality threshold of inquiry, and to print addresses onto questionnaires. 相似文献
9.
Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Ehsan Forootan Jürgen Kusche Ina Loth Wolf-Dieter Schuh Annette Eicker Joseph Awange Laurent Longuevergne Bernd Diekkrüger Michael Schmidt C. K. Shum 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(4):913-940
West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections. 相似文献
10.
Christiane Schröder Ina Pokorny Nicola Dolgener Christoph Herden Hauke Drews Ralph Tiedemann 《Limnologica》2012,42(4):291-298
The ongoing global amphibian decline calls for an increase of habitat and population management efforts. Pond restoration and construction is more and more accompanied by breeding and translocation programs. However, the appropriateness of translocations as a tool for conservation has been widely debated, as it can cause biodiversity loss through genetic homogenization and can disrupt local adaptation, eventually leading to outbreeding depression. In this study, we investigated the genetic structure of two translocated populations of the critically endangered fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina at its north western distribution edge using supposedly neutral genetic markers (variation in the mitochondrial control region and microsatellites) as well as a marker under selection (major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes). While one of the newly established populations showed the typical genetic composition of surrounding populations, the other was extremely diverged without clear affinity to its putative source. In this population we detected a profound impact of allochthonous individuals: 100% of the analyzed individuals exhibited a highly divergent mitochondrial haplotype which was otherwise found in Austria. 83% of them were also assigned to Austria by the analysis of microsatellites. Interestingly, for the adaptive marker (MHC) local alleles were predominant in this population, while only very few alleles were shared with the Austrian population. Probably Mendelian inheritance has reshuffled genotypes such that adaptive local alleles are maintained (here, MHC), while presumably neutral allochthonous alleles dominate at other loci. The release of allochthonous individuals generally increased the genetic variability of the affected population without wiping out locally adaptive genotypes. Thus, outbreeding depression might be less apparent than sometimes thought and natural selection appears strong enough to maintain locally adaptive alleles, at least in functionally important immune system genes. 相似文献