Mitigating the Rate and Extent of Global Warming   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stefan Rahmstorf  Andrey Ganopolski 《Climatic change》2002,52(3):255-262

Editorial Introduction

Mitigating the Rate and Extent of Global Warming  相似文献   

Integrated surface–groundwater flow modeling: A free-surface overland flow boundary condition in a parallel groundwater flow model     

Stefan J. Kollet  Reed M. Maxwell 《Advances in water resources》2006

Interactions between surface and groundwater are a key component of the hydrologic budget on the watershed scale. Models that honor these interactions are commonly based on the conductance concept that presumes a distinct interface at the land surface, separating the surface from the subsurface domain. These types of models link the subsurface and surface domains via an exchange flux that depends upon the magnitude and direction of the hydraulic gradient across the interface and a proportionality constant (a measure of the hydraulic connectivity). Because experimental evidence of such a distinct interface is often lacking in field systems, there is a need for a more general coupled modeling approach.  相似文献   

Restoration of submerged vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes – A guideline and state of the art in Germany     

Sabine Hilt  Elisabeth M. Gross  Michael Hupfer  Harald Morscheid  Jens Mhlmann  Arnulf Melzer  Jens Poltz  Stefan Sandrock  Eva-Maria Scharf  Susanne Schneider  Klaus van de Weyer 《Limnologica》2006,36(3):155-171

One of the most serious problems caused by eutrophication of shallow lakes is the disappearance of submerged macrophytes and the switch to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. The reduction of external nutrient loads often does not result in a change back to the macrophyte-dominated state because stabilising mechanisms that cause resilience may delay a response. Additional internal lake restoration measures may therefore be needed to decrease the concentration of total phosphorus and increase water clarity. The re-establishment of submerged macrophytes required for a long-term stability of clear water conditions, however, may still fail, or mass developments of tall-growing species may cause nuisance for recreational use. Both cases are often not taken into account when restoration measures are planned in Germany, and existing schemes to reduce eutrophication consider the topic inadequately. Here we develop a step-by-step guideline to assess the chances of submerged macrophyte re-establishment in shallow lakes. We reviewed and rated the existing literature and case studies with special regard on (1) the impact of different internal lake restoration methods on the development of submerged macrophytes, (2) methods for the assessment of natural re-establishment, (3) requirements and methods for artificial support of submerged macrophyte development and (4) management options of macrophyte species diversity and abundance in Germany. This guideline is intended to help lake managers aiming to restore shallow lakes in Germany to critically asses and predict the potential development of submerged vegetation, taking into account the complex factors and interrelations that determine their occurrence, abundance and diversity.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Stefan Becker  Marco Gemmer  Tong Jiang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(6):435-444

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.  相似文献   

M L Determination for Local and Regional Events Using a Sparse Network in Southwestern Germany     

Stefan Stange 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):247-257

A method for the determination of consistent local magnitude M _L values (Richter scale, or M _WA) for earthquakes with epicentral distances ranging from 10 km through 1000 km is demonstrated. The raw data consists of nearly 1300 amplitude readings from a network of six digital seismographs in Baden–Württemberg (Southwestern Germany) during 26 months starting in 1995, later extended by another 1000 amplitude readings until 1999. Relying on most of the basics introduced by C.F. Richter a three-parameter attenuation curve (distance correction, magnitude-distance relation) for Baden–Württemberg and adjacent areas is presented. Station corrections are evaluated and the attenuation curve is calibrated with respect to other agencies for distances greater than 650 km. Reasonable parametrisations are discussed and meaningful error bars are attributed. Finally, a seventh station is incorporated by means of its station correction alone, without needing to update the attenuation curve.  相似文献   

Indicators of Climate Warming in Minnesota: Lake ICE Covers and Snowmelt Runoff   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Stephanie L. Johnson  Heinz G. Stefan 《Climatic change》2006,75(4):421-453

Records of hydrologic parameters, especially those parameters that are directly linked to air temperature, were analyzed to find indicators of recent climate warming in Minnesota, USA. Minnesota is projected to be vulnerable to climate change because of its location in the northern temperate zone of the globe. Ice-out and ice-in dates on lakes, spring (snowmelt) runoff timing, spring discharge values in streams, and stream water temperatures recorded up to the year 2002 were selected for study. The analysis was conducted by inspection of 10-year moving averages, linear regression on complete and on partial records, and by ranking and sorting of events. Moving averages were used for illustrative purposes only. All statistics were computed on annual data. All parameters examined show trends, and sometimes quite variable trends, over different periods of the record. With the exception of spring stream flow rates the trends of all parameters examined point toward a warming climate in Minnesota over the last two or three decades. Although hidden among strong variability from year to year, ice-out dates on 73 lakes have been shifting to an earlier date at a rate of −0.13 days/year from 1965 to 2002, while ice-in dates on 34 lakes have been delayed by 0.75 days/year from 1979 to 2002. From 1990 to 2002 the rates of change increased to −0.25 days/year for ice-out and 1.44 days/year for ice-in. Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002 the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred −0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff −0.23 days/year earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by 0.11^∘C/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature. Ranking and sorting of annual data shows that a disproportionately large number of early lake ice-out dates has occurred after 1985, but also between 1940 and 1950; similarly late lake ice-in has occurred more frequently since about 1990. Ranking and sorting of first spring runoff dates also gave evidence of earlier occurrences, i.e. climate warming in late winter. A relationship of changes in hydrologic parameters with trends in air temperature records was demonstrated. Ice-out dates were shown to correlate most strongly with average March air temperatures shifting by −2.0 days for a 1^°C increase in March air temperature. Spring runoff dates also show a relationship with March air temperatures; spring runoff dates shift at a rate of −2.5 days/1^°C minimum March air temperature change. Water temperatures at seven river sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area show an average rise of 0.46^°C in river temperature/1^°C mean annual air temperature change, but this rate of change probably includes effects of urban development. In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records.  相似文献   

Microbial ecology of the stratified water column of the Black Sea as revealed by a comprehensive biomarker study   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Stuart G. Wakeham  Rudi Amann  Katherine H. Freeman  Ellen C. Hopmans  Bo Barker Jrgensen  Isabell F. Putnam  Stefan Schouten  Jaap S. Sinninghe Damst  Helen M. Talbot  Dagmar Woebken 《Organic Geochemistry》2007,38(12):2070-2097

The stratified water column of the Black Sea is partitioned into oxic, suboxic, and euxinic zones, each characterized by different biogeochemical processes and by distinct microbial communities. In 2003, we collected particulate matter by large volume in situ filtration at the highest resolution to date for lipid biomarker analysis and bacterioplankton for enumeration of major prokaryotic groups. Abundances of several prokaryotic groups were estimated using CARD-FISH probes specific for Bacteria, Archaea (Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota), epsilonproteobacteria (mainly sulfide oxidizers) and sulfate reducing bacteria. We also measured a wide range of bacterial and archaeal lipid biomarkers. Depth distributions of diagnostic biomarkers are matched with zonation of microbial processes, including aerobic bacterial oxidation of methane, oxidation of ammonium by bacteria and archaea, metal reduction, and sulfide oxidation at the chemocline, and bacterial sulfate reduction and anaerobic oxidation of methane by archaea in the anoxic zone. Cell densities for archaea and sulfate reducing bacteria are estimated based on water column biomarker concentrations and compared with CARD-FISH results.  相似文献   

Improved ocean-geoid resolution from retracked ERS-1 satellite altimeter waveforms   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Stefan Maus  Chris M. Green  & J. Derek Fairhead 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(1):243-253

The ocean geoid can be inferred from the topography of the mean sea surface. Satellite altimeters transmit radar pulses and determine the return traveltime to measure sea-surface height. The ERS-1 altimeter stacks 51 consecutive radar reflections on board the satellite to a single waveform. Tracking the time shift of the waveform gives an estimate of the distance to the sea surface. We retrack the ERS-1 radar traveltimes using a model that is focused on the leading edge of the waveforms. While earlier methods regarded adjacent waveforms as independent statistical events, we invert a whole sequence of waveforms simultaneously for a spline geoid solution. Smoothness is controlled by spectral constraints on the spline coefficients. Our geoid solutions have an average spectral density equal to the expected power spectrum of the true geoid. The coherence of repeat track solutions indicates a spatial resolution of 31  km, as compared to 41  km resolution for the ERS-1 Ocean Product. While the resolution of the latter deteriorates to 47  km for wave heights above 2  m, our geoid solution maintains its resolution of 31  km for rough sea. Retracking altimeter waveform data and constraining the solution by a spectral model leads to a realistic geoid solution with significantly improved along-track resolution.  相似文献   

The introduction of neural network system and its applications in rock engineering   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Yi Huang  Stefan Wnstedt 《Engineering Geology》1998,49(3-4):253-260

The neural network system has been developing very fast recently. It has been widely used in many industries such as automation, nuclear power plant, chemical industry, etc. Neural network systems have a great advantage in dealing with problems in which many factors influence the process and result, and the understanding of this process is poor, and there are experimental data or field data. In rock engineering, many problems are of this nature. In this paper, a brief introduction to neural network systems is given. Problems such as what is a neural network, how it works and what kind of advantages it has are discussed. After this, several applications in rock engineering, made by us, are presented. Case 1 is ore boundary delineation. In this case, the rock are divided into three classes, i.e.: (1) waste rock; (2) semi-ore; and (3) ore for mining purposes. The neural network system built can judge whether it is ore, semi-ore or waste rock along the borehole according its corresponding geophysical logging data, such as gamma-ray, gamma-gamma, neutron and resistivity. Case 2 is aggregate quality prediction. In this case, the quality parameters: (1) impact value; (2) abrasion value I; and (3) abrasion value II are predicted by using a neural network system based on density, point load, content of quarts and content of brittle minerals. Case 3 is rock indentation depth prediction. In this case, the rock indentation depth under indentation load is predicted by the established neural network system based on the indentation load on rock, indenter type and rock mechanical properties, such as uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus. Poisson's ratio, critical energy release rate and density. In all these cases, the neural network systems have been applied successfully. The testing results are satisfactory and better than the existing techniques.  相似文献   

Seasonal dynamics of aggregates and their typical biocoenosis in the Elbe Estuary     

Heike Zimmermann-Timm  Henry Holst  Stefan Müller 《Estuaries and Coasts》1998,21(4):613-621

In 1995, an extensive investigation was carried out in the Elbe Estuary in Germany. Special attention was paid to organisms, including bacteria, amoebae, ciliates, flagellates, rotifers, larvae ofDreissena polymorpha, and nematodes, dispersed in the water column and associated firmly or loosely with different types of aggregates. The abundance, size, and colonization by microorganisms of the aggregates varied during the seasons. The largest aggregates were found during spring and summer, when diatoms, rotifers, and crustaceans were present. The most aggregates were encountered in spring and from summer to autumn. Most of the species observed during the study were more common in pelagic habitats than in benthic ones. However, the presence of ciliates in the groups Hypotrichida and Sessilida as well as as flagellates in the groups Biosoecida, Cercomonadida, Choanoflagellida, Chrysomonadida, Kinetoplastida, and amoebae and some nematodes in the open water depends, upon the availability of surfaces, because they are sessile or poor swimnters, and some flagellates and amoebae need to attach themselves to an object to feed. Most organisms were much more abundant in or on aggregates than in the surrounding water during spring and summer, which indicates that aggregates enhance the habitat and promote the development of the organisms. From spring through autumn, the structure of the community associated with the aggregates is influenced by the pelagic environment. The presence of the species in the benthic community was detected only during summer.  相似文献