Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy     

Jesse H. Ausubel  Arnulf Grübler  Nebojsa Nakicenovic 《Climatic change》1988,12(3):245-263

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.  相似文献   

Restoration of submerged vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes – A guideline and state of the art in Germany     

Sabine Hilt  Elisabeth M. Gross  Michael Hupfer  Harald Morscheid  Jens Mhlmann  Arnulf Melzer  Jens Poltz  Stefan Sandrock  Eva-Maria Scharf  Susanne Schneider  Klaus van de Weyer 《Limnologica》2006,36(3):155-171

One of the most serious problems caused by eutrophication of shallow lakes is the disappearance of submerged macrophytes and the switch to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. The reduction of external nutrient loads often does not result in a change back to the macrophyte-dominated state because stabilising mechanisms that cause resilience may delay a response. Additional internal lake restoration measures may therefore be needed to decrease the concentration of total phosphorus and increase water clarity. The re-establishment of submerged macrophytes required for a long-term stability of clear water conditions, however, may still fail, or mass developments of tall-growing species may cause nuisance for recreational use. Both cases are often not taken into account when restoration measures are planned in Germany, and existing schemes to reduce eutrophication consider the topic inadequately. Here we develop a step-by-step guideline to assess the chances of submerged macrophyte re-establishment in shallow lakes. We reviewed and rated the existing literature and case studies with special regard on (1) the impact of different internal lake restoration methods on the development of submerged macrophytes, (2) methods for the assessment of natural re-establishment, (3) requirements and methods for artificial support of submerged macrophyte development and (4) management options of macrophyte species diversity and abundance in Germany. This guideline is intended to help lake managers aiming to restore shallow lakes in Germany to critically asses and predict the potential development of submerged vegetation, taking into account the complex factors and interrelations that determine their occurrence, abundance and diversity.  相似文献   

Naturnahe Abwasserreinigung: Interdisziplinäre Zusammenarbeit von Naturwissenschaftler und Ingenieur     

Tanja Gschlssl  Peter Schleypen  Christian Steinmann  Arnulf Melzer 《Limnologica》1999,29(1):103-104

Sewage from scattered villages is often treated in septic tanks whose removal efficiency of biodegradable components amounts to about 35%. Viewed from the standpoint of water protection such a performance provides an insufficient prevention of water pollution. It is worth aspiring to more extensive sewage treatment, i.e. oxidation of organic matter and nitrogen compounds. This particularly applies to rural regions if scattered villages are situated in ecologically sensitive regions such as watersheds of small brooks. Here, it is resonable to emply natural methods of treating sewage such as constructed wetlands and lagoons up to a size of 1,000 population equivalents. Constructed wetlands and lagoons provide an excellent field of cooperation between biologist and engineer, because the complexity of the microbial communities and the influence of the physico-chemical and geological conditions upon the microorganisms are not yet well understood. Further interdisciplinary research work has to be done for instance in regard to the relationship between helophytes and bacteria in the biofilm on the rhizomes of the need or focussing upon effluent polishing of lagoons.  相似文献   

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges     

David L. McCollum  Volker Krey  Keywan Riahi  Peter Kolp  Arnulf Grubler  Marek Makowski  Nebojsa Nakicenovic 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):479-494

This paper assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We explain how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that stringent climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Concerted decarbonization efforts can lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide: upwards of 2–32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030, depending on the aggressiveness of the air pollution policies foreseen in the baseline. At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100–600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1–0.7 % of GDP). Novel aspects of this paper include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2 °C climate target.  相似文献   

Learning and climate change     

Brian C. O'Neill  Paul Crutzen  Arnulf Grübler  Minh Ha Duong  Klaus Keller  Charles Kolstad 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):585-589

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.  相似文献   

Kompaßkompensation mittels Feldstärkenmessungen     

Arnulf Schlüter 《Ocean Dynamics》1948,1(5-6):204-213

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Evidence from Antarctic mantle peridotite xenoliths for changes in mineralogy, geochemistry and geothermal gradients beneath a developing rift   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S.F. Foley  A.V. Andronikov  S. Melzer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(12):3096-3120

Garnet and spinel peridotite xenoliths associated with the Phanerozoic Lambert-Amery Rift in eastern Antarctica contain evidence for several stages in the development of the mantle beneath the rift. Despite the fact that equilibria were only partly attained, a combination of petrography, whole-rock geochemistry, mineral chemistry and thermobarometry can be used to decipher four stages prior to entrainment of the xenoliths in the host magma during the initial stages of the breakup of Antarctica, India and Madagascar. The first chronological stage is represented by harzburgitic protoliths represented by rare occurrences of low-Ca olivines and orthopyroxenes in spinel lherzolites: these yield the lowest temperatures of 830-850 °C, and are also characterized by distinct trace element contents; lower Ti, Cr, V and Zn in olivine and orthopyroxene, and additionally lower Cu, Ni, Ga and Li in orthopyroxene. Some garnets are subcalcic, indicating that the spinel-garnet lherzolites also formed from harzburgitic protoliths. The second stage is the formation of garnet due to a pressure increase probably related to collision at 1.1 Ga. The third stage is marked by the growth of clinopyroxene, demonstrably in cpx-poor spinel lherzolites but probably in all xenolith groups: equilibrium of clinopyroxene with olivine and orthopyroxene was not attained in all samples, so that the non-judicious use of thermobarometers can produce bewildering results. The fourth stage is an enrichment episode that affected all spinel-garnet peridotites and about half of the spinel peridotites. During this stage, reaction rims were produced on the clinopyroxenes that formed during stage 3, the modal content of olivine and Mg/(Mg + Fe) in the rocks was reduced, CaO, Al₂O₃ and trace elements were enriched, and garnets were almost completely transformed to kelyphites. A later stage is documented by interstitial glasses and films around spinels related to infiltration of melt from the host magma. These post-date, and are more enriched in alkalies than, partially melted rims on clinopyroxenes, demonstrating that all the three earlier episodes were pre-entrainment events. Pressures indicated by the spinel + garnet lherzolites are restricted to 20-24 kbar at 1040-1180 °C. Early harzburgitic assemblages are interpreted to represent an earlier, cooler geotherm, whereas the kelyphite assemblages indicate temperatures 180-200 °C hotter than the main xenolith geotherm. This event also caused recrystallization of the clinopyroxene rims and is attributed to heating during rifting, but not due to the host magma itself. The preservation of evidence for three progressively hotter geotherms can be related to the upward movement of isotherms during the development of the sub-rift mantle.  相似文献   

Lattice vibrational modes in synthetic tremolite-Sr-tremolite and tremolite-richterite solid solutions     

M. Andrut  M. Gottschalk  S. Melzer  J. Najorka 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2000,27(5):301-309

Powder IR spectra of synthetic richterite-tremolite and Sr-tremolite-tremolite solid solutions were obtained in the spectral range between 1400 and 600?cm^?1. Under the consideration of the crystal structure and the Wykoff positions of the atoms in the primitive unit cell, the number, type and symmetry of vibrational modes were deduced. The space group of tremolite C_2h was used as the factor group leading to 16 theoretical stretching vibrations in the IR range caused by the Si₄O₁₁ ^∞-ribbon. The energy of the internal vibrations of the Si₄O₁₁ ^∞-ribbon is a function of the relative bond strengths and masses of nearby ions. For the amphiboles a one-mode behavior was observed for all the Si-O, Si-O-Si and O-Si-O stretching vibrations, indicating no clustering in the two solid solution series. In both solid solution series the vibrational energy of the stretching vibrations is a linear function of composition. In the system richterite-tremolite a shift of the stretching frequencies of the Si₄O₁₁ ^∞-ribbon over the whole compositional range of up to 30?cm^?1 was observed. In contrast, for Sr-tremolite-tremolite the maximum shift was only 5?cm^?1. These quite small band shifts allow the (Si₄O₁₁)^∞-ribbon to be treated as an isolated entity for factor group analysis. Nevertheless, by the two exchange mechanisms, Ca(M4)???Sr(M4) and □(A) Ca(M4)???Na(A)Na(M4), the FWHHs increased and the amplitudes decreased, indicating a slight distortion of the ribbon. For Sr-tremolite-tremolite only a linear expansion of the lattice was observed. In the series richterite-tremolite individual bond angles of the SiO₄ tetrahedra are additionally changed, causing the higher energy shift of the bands. The strongest and sharpest bands were observed for the end member tremolite. The one-mode behavior of the Si₄O₁₁-double chain indicates that there is no short-range order of Na/Ca and Ca/Sr at the M4 sites of these amphiboles.  相似文献   

Measurements of Carbon Monoxide and Nonmethane Hydrocarbons During POPCORN     

R. Koppmann  C. Plass-Dülmer  B. Ramacher  J. Rudolph  H. Kunz  D. Melzer  P. Speth 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1998,31(1-2):53-72

During the field campaign POPCORN (Photo oxidant formation by plant emitted compounds and OH radicals in North-eastern Germany) in Pennewitt (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany) in August 1994, carbon monoxide and nonmethane hydrocarbons were measured over a large maize field by in-situ gas chromatography. Throughout the campaign CO and NMHC showed, even for a remote rural area, unexpectedly low mixing ratios. Except a few episodes, CO mixing ratios were around 120 ppb. Ethane was the only hydrocarbon showing mixing ratios exceeding 1 ppb. The mixing ratios of all other NMHC ranged between several hundred ppt and the lower limit of detection which was between 20 and 5 ppt depending on the compound. During three frontal passages CO and NMHC mixing ratios increased significantly, while between August 13 and 16, 1994, polar air masses were encountered with CO and NMHC mixing ratios dropping to values which are typical for North Atlantic background air. During this period average CO mixing ratios were 85 ppb and ethane as the most abundant hydrocarbon decreased to 650 ppt. The large-scale meteorological situation is reflected in an unusual frequency distribution of CO. The distribution shows three maxima which can be assigned to the periods of the frontal passages, to the observation of polar air masses and the rest of the campaign. Two-day backward trajectories were calculated in order to obtain information about the origin of the air masses transported to the site. The observed NMHC and CO data can be attributed to the origin of the air masses and the air mass trajectories. NMHC and CO mixing ratios were well correlated indicating that these compounds originated from similar mostly anthropogenic sources. An exception was isoprene which showed no correlation with CO. With values below 100 ppt the mixing ratio of isoprene, which is emitted by terrestrial vegetation, was also unexpectedly low during the first half of the campaign although the maximum temperatures were around 35°C.  相似文献   

Stable sulfur and nitrogen isotopic compositions of crude oil fractions from Southern Germany     

A.V Hirner  W Graf  R Treibs  A.N Melzer  P Hahn-Weinheimer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1984,48(11):2179-2186

Eleven samples of crude oil from the Molasse Basin of Southern Germany were fractionated and their contents of sulfur and nitrogen as well as the stable isotope compositions of these elements (${}^{34}\text{S}{}^{32}\text{S}$ and ${}^{15}\text{N}{}^{14}\text{N}$, resp.) investigated.According to the δ³⁴S determinations, all crude oils from the Tertiary base of the Western and Eastern Molasse belong to one oil family and differ significantly from the Triassic and Liassic oils in the Western Molasse.An enrichment of ³⁴S was observed with increasing polarity of crude oil fractions. The isotope distributions of sulfur in the polar constituents of the biodegraded oils from the sandstones of Ampfing, however, approach a homogeneous distribution.The nitrogen isotope distribution is rather uniform in Southern German oils. A regional differentiation can be recognized, although the overall isotopic variation is small. The δ¹⁵N values of the crudes and asphaltenes do not correlate.  相似文献