Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles     

Takeshi Kuramochi  Jusen Asuka  Hanna Fekete  Kentaro Tamura  Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of settling particles at station K2 in the western subarctic North Pacific     

Yoshihisa?MinoEmail author  Chiho?Sukigara  Makio?C.?Honda  Hajime?Kawakami  Kazuhiko?Matsumoto  Masahide?Wakita  Minoru?Kitamura  Tetsuichi?Fujiki  Kosei?Sasaoka  Osamu?Abe  Jan?Kaiser  Toshiro?Saino 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(6):819-836

Intensive observations using hydrographical cruises and moored sediment trap deployments during 2010 and 2012 at station K2 in the North Pacific Western Subarctic Gyre (WSG) revealed seasonal changes in δ ¹⁵N of both suspended and settling particles. Suspended particles (SUS) were collected from depths between the surface and 200 m; settling particles by drifting sediment traps (DST; 100–200 m) and moored sediment traps (MST; 200 and 500 m). All particles showed higher δ ¹⁵N values in winter and lower in summer, contrary to the expected by isotopic fractionation during phytoplankton nitrate consumption. We suggest that these observed isotopic patterns are due to ammonium consumption via light-controlled nitrification, which could induce variations in δ ¹⁵N(SUS) of 0.4–3.1 ‰ in the euphotic zone (EZ). The δ ¹⁵N(SUS) signature was reflected by δ ¹⁵N(DST) despite modifications during biogenic transformation from suspended particles in the EZ. δ ¹⁵N enrichment (average: 3.6 ‰) and the increase in C:N ratio (by 1.6) in settling particles suggests year-round contributions of metabolites from herbivorous zooplankton as well as TEPs produced by diatoms. Accordingly, seasonal δ ¹⁵N(DST) variations of 2.4–7.0 ‰ showed a significant correlation with primary productivity (PP) at K2. By applying the observed δ ¹⁵N(DST) vs. PP regression to δ ¹⁵N(MST) of 1.9–8.0 ‰, we constructed the first annual time-series of PP changes in the WSG. This new approach to estimate productivity can be a powerful tool for further understanding of the biological pump in the WSG, even though its validity needs to be examined carefully.  相似文献   

Coupled 1-D physical–biological model study of phytoplankton production at two contrasting time-series stations in the western North Pacific     

Yoshikazu Sasai  Chisato Yoshikawa  S. Lan Smith  Taketo Hashioka  Kazuhiko Matsumoto  Masahide Wakita  Kosei Sasaoka  Makio C. Honda 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(3):509-526

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The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan     

Richard A. Staff  Takeshi Nakagawa  Gordon Schlolaut  Michael H. Marshall  Achim Brauer  Henry F. Lamb  Christopher Bronk Ramsey  Charlotte L. Bryant  Fiona Brock  Hiroyuki Kitagawa  Johannes van der Plicht  Rebecca L. Payne  Victoria C. Smith  Darren F. Mark  Alison Macleod  Simon P. E. Blockley  Jean‐Luc Schwenninger  Pavel E. Tarasov  Tsuyoshi Haraguchi  Katsuya Gotanda  Hitoshi Yonenobu  Yusuke Yokoyama  Suigetsu Project Members 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):259-266

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).  相似文献   

A simple model of drainage flow in a valley     

Takeshi Sato  Junsei Kondo 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,45(4):355-369

A model of the drainage flow in a valley under calm conditions has been developed on the basis of the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and heat. The inflow of mass and heat from side-slopes is incorporated, and the momentum and sensible heat exchanges between valley drainage flow and valley floor are parameterized.The characteristic velocity of valley drainage flow is expressed in terms of the following parameters: three potential temperature differences representing the temperature field in the valey; topographic parameters of the valley; mean bulk coefficients representing the aerodynamic conditions of the valley floor; and the stability of the ambient atmosphere. The characteristic thickness includes additional parameters of side-slope flow.That the model satisfactorily predicts the characteristic thickness and velocity is shown from comparison with observations from valleys several hundred meters to a few hundred kilometers long.  相似文献   

Air/water two-phase flow test tunnel for airfoil studies     

H. Ohashi  Y. Matsumoto  Y. Ichikawa  T. Tsukiyama 《Mineralium Deposita》1994,29(1):249-256

A test tunnel for the study of airfoil performances under air/water two-phase flow condition has been designed and constructed. This facility will serve for a better understanding of the flow phenomena and characteristics of hydraulic machinery under gas/ liquid two-phase flow operating conditions. At the test section of the tunnel, a two-dimensional isolated airfoil or a cascade of airfoils is installed in a two-phase inlet flow with a uniform velocity (up to 10 m/s) and void fraction (up to 12%) distribution. The details of the tunnel structure and the measuring systems are described and the basic characteristics of the constructed tunnel are also given. As an example of the test results, void fraction distribution around a test airfoil is shown.Dedicated to the 60th Birthday of Professor Klaus Gersten  相似文献   

Fossil worm tubes from the presumed cold-seep carbonates of the Miocene Hayama Group, Central Miura Peninsula, Japan     

Takeshi  Naganuma  Yuichi  Okayama  Mutsuo  Hattori Yasumitsu  Kanie 《Island Arc》1995,4(3):199-208

Abstract Fossil worm tubes were collected from the Hayama Group, Miura Peninsula, Japan, together with abundant fossils of Calyptogena-Acharax clams. The fossil worm tubes were well preserved and coated with milky white amorphous silica. Most of the tubes were 1-3 mm in diameter, and up to 10 cm in length. Worm tubes were found in siltstone and limestone, and formed network-like assemblages. Elemental mapping on the tube cross-sections revealed the localization of sulfur, zinc and iron at the worm tubes, which suggests that sulfur-related metabolism and deposition occurred in association with the worm tubes. High resolution analysis revealed the localization of zinc-sulfur (sphalerite, ZnS) on the tubes, while iron-sulfur (pyrite, FeS₂) was localized at the center of the tubes. The spatially separate sphaleritization and pyritization imply that epiphytic and endosymbiotic microorganisms perform different sulfur metabolisms, such as sulfate-reduction and sulfide-oxidation.  相似文献   

Magnetic petrology of the 1991–1995 dacite lava of Unzen volcano,Japan: Degree of oxidation and implications for the growth of lava domes     

Takeshi Saito  Naoto Ishikawa  Hiroki Kamata 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007

To understand the oxidation state and process of oxidation of lava domes, we carried out magnetic petrological analyses of lava samples obtained from domes and block-and-ash-flow deposits associated with the 1991–1995 eruption of Unzen volcano, Japan. As a result, we recognize three different types of magnetic petrology, each related to deuteric high-temperature oxidation during initial cooling. Type A oxides are characterized by homogenous titanomagnetite and titanohematite, indicating a low oxidation state and high titanomagnetite concentrations. Type B oxides are weakly exsolved and contain titanohematite laths and rutile lenses, indicating a higher oxidation state. Type C oxides, which represent the highest oxidation state, are completely exsolved and composed of Ti-poor titanomagnetite, titanohematite, rutile, and pseudobrookite, indicating high hematite concentrations. Some grains in Types A and B show indications of reduction, which was related to interaction with volcanic gases subsequent to high-temperature oxidation. In terms of geological occurrence, the oxidation processes probably differed for endogenous and exogenous domes. Endogenous dome lavas are oxidized concentrically and are classified into the three types according to their location within the dome: samples from the surface are strongly oxidized and classified as Type C, while the inner part is unoxidized and classified as Type A. Exogenous dome lavas are unoxidized and assigned to Type A. Some samples show signs of reduction, which may have occurred around fumaroles. We propose that location within the dome and the process of dome growth are the factors that control oxidation.  相似文献   

Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST     

Norio Matsumoto  Yuichi Kitagawa  Naoji Koizumi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(12):2377-2396

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.  相似文献   

Crustal structure in and around the region of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake deduced from a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration     

Takeshi Ohmura  Takeo Moriya  Chengshi Piao  Takaya Iwasaki  Toshikastu Yoshi  Shin'ichi Sakai  Tetsuya Takeda  Kaoru Miyashita  Humihito Yamazaki  Kiyoshi Ito  Akira Yamazaki  Yoji Shimada  Katsuya Tashiro  Hiroki Miyamachi 《Island Arc》2001,10(3-4):215-227

Abstract The 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake (M_JMA 7.2, M_w 6.9) occurred on Jan. 17, 1995, at a depth of 17 km, beneath the areas of southern part of Hyogo prefecture and Awaji Island. To investigate P-wave velocity distribution and seismological characteristics in the aftershock area of this great earthquake, a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration was carried out by the Research Group for Explosion Seismology (RGES) . The profile including 6 shot points and 205 observations was 135 km in length, extending from Keihoku, Northern Kyoto prefecture, through Kobe, to Seidan on Awaji Island. The charge of each shot was 350–700 kg. The P-wave velocity structure model showed a complicated sedimentary layer which is shallower than 2.5 km, a 2.5 km-thick basement layer whose velocity is 5.5 km/s, overlying the crystalline upper crust, and the boundary between the upper and lower crust.
Almost all aftershock hypocenters were located in the upper crust. However, the structure model suggests that the hypocenters of the main shock and some aftershock clusters were situated deeper than the boundary between the upper and lower crust. We found that the P-velocity in the upper crust beneath the northern part of Awaji Island is 5.64 km/s which is 3% lower than that of the surrounding area. The low-velocity zone coincides with the region where the high stress moment release was observed.  相似文献