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1.
Marine Geophysical Research - In the original publication, the Fig. 2 was published incorrectly. The correct version (Fig. 2) is given in this correction. The original article has been...  相似文献   
2.
Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity and the migration speed of the monsoon rain band over the East Asian region are altered in the recent decade,resulting in the drier conditions in late spring and the earlier onset of Changma.In early August when a climatological monsoon break was clear in the earlier decade,the precipitation has increased dramatically with a meridional coherency.The response to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southeastern China provides a favorable condition for more precipitation in early August through the changes in moisture transport and tropical cyclone passage.  相似文献   
3.
In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.  相似文献   
4.
As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. On leave from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency.  相似文献   
5.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   
6.
Cretaceous subduction complexes surround the southeastern margin of Sundaland in Indonesia. They are widely exposed in several localities, such as Bantimala (South Sulawesi), Karangsambung (Central Java) and Meratus (South Kalimantan).
The Meratus Complex of South Kalimantan consists mainly of mélange, chert, siliceous shale, limestone, basalt, ultramafic rocks and schists. The complex is uncomformably covered with Late Cretaceous sedimentary-volcanic formations, such as the Pitap and Haruyan Formations.
Well-preserved radiolarians were extracted from 14 samples of siliceous sedimentary rocks, and K–Ar age dating was performed on muscovite from 6 samples of schist of the Meratus Complex. The radiolarian assemblage from the chert of the complex is assigned to the early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous. The K–Ar age data from schist range from 110 Ma to 180 Ma. Three samples from the Pitap Formation, which unconformably covers the Meratus Complex, yield Cretaceous radiolarians of Cenomanian or older.
These chronological data as well as field observation and petrology yield the following constraints on the tectonic setting of the Meratus Complex.
(1) The mélange of the Meratus Complex was caused by the subduction of an oceanic plate covered by radiolarian chert ranging in age from early Middle Jurassic to late Early Cretaceous.
(2) The Haruyan Schist of 110–119 Ma was affected by metamorphism of a high pressure–low temperature type caused by oceanic plate subduction. Some of the protoliths were high alluminous continental cover or margin sediments. Intermediate pressure type metamorphic rocks of 165 and 180 Ma were discovered for the first time along the northern margin of the Haruyan Schist.
(3) The Haruyan Formation, a product of submarine volcanism in an immature island arc setting, is locally contemporaneous with the formation of the mélange of the Meratus Complex.  相似文献   
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9.
Intensive observations using hydrographical cruises and moored sediment trap deployments during 2010 and 2012 at station K2 in the North Pacific Western Subarctic Gyre (WSG) revealed seasonal changes in δ 15N of both suspended and settling particles. Suspended particles (SUS) were collected from depths between the surface and 200 m; settling particles by drifting sediment traps (DST; 100–200 m) and moored sediment traps (MST; 200 and 500 m). All particles showed higher δ 15N values in winter and lower in summer, contrary to the expected by isotopic fractionation during phytoplankton nitrate consumption. We suggest that these observed isotopic patterns are due to ammonium consumption via light-controlled nitrification, which could induce variations in δ 15N(SUS) of 0.4–3.1 ‰ in the euphotic zone (EZ). The δ 15N(SUS) signature was reflected by δ 15N(DST) despite modifications during biogenic transformation from suspended particles in the EZ. δ 15N enrichment (average: 3.6 ‰) and the increase in C:N ratio (by 1.6) in settling particles suggests year-round contributions of metabolites from herbivorous zooplankton as well as TEPs produced by diatoms. Accordingly, seasonal δ 15N(DST) variations of 2.4–7.0 ‰ showed a significant correlation with primary productivity (PP) at K2. By applying the observed δ 15N(DST) vs. PP regression to δ 15N(MST) of 1.9–8.0 ‰, we constructed the first annual time-series of PP changes in the WSG. This new approach to estimate productivity can be a powerful tool for further understanding of the biological pump in the WSG, even though its validity needs to be examined carefully.  相似文献   
10.
Observations of temperature fluctuations and simultaneous observations of temperature and salinity fluctuations conducted in the sea are carefully analyzed on the theoretical basis developed in Part I. Observed remarkable fluctuations of about 10 minutes period are considered to agree with the unstable oscillations obtained from the theory. Actual oscillations observed in the sea are regarded to have small wave length such that they satisfy the condition (F) described in the Section 1 of Part I.  相似文献   
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