The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison     

Gunnar Luderer  Valentina Bosetti  Michael Jakob  Marian Leimbach  Jan C. Steckel  Henri Waisman  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):9-37

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.  相似文献   

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?     

Valentina Bosetti  Carlo Carraro  Massimo Tavoni 《Climatic change》2009,96(3):299-312

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.  相似文献   

A limit on the number density of bright z≈ 7 galaxies     

Elizabeth R. Stanway  Malcolm N. Bremer  Valentina Squitieri  Laura S. Douglas  Matthew D. Lehnert 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(1):370-376

We present a survey of bright optical dropout sources in two deep, multiwavelength surveys comprising 11 widely separated fields, aimed at constraining the galaxy luminosity function at   z ≈ 7  for sources at  5–10  L * ( z = 6)  . Our combined survey area is 225 arcmin² to a depth of   J _AB= 24.2  (3σ) and 135 arcmin² to   J = 25.3  (4σ). We find that infrared data longwards of 2 μm are essential for classifying optical dropout sources, and in particular for identifying cool Galactic star contaminants. Our limits on the number density of high-redshift sources are consistent with current estimates of the Lyman break galaxy luminosity function at   z = 6  .  相似文献   

Estuarine biofilm patterns: Modern analogues for Precambrian self-organization     

Roeland C. van de Vijsel  Jim van Belzen  Tjeerd J. Bouma  Daphne van der Wal  Valentina Cusseddu  Sam J. Purkis  Max Rietkerk  Johan van de Koppel 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(5):1141-1154

This field and laboratory study examines whether regularly patterned biofilms on present-day intertidal flats are equivalent to microbially induced bedforms found in geological records dating back to the onset of life on Earth. Algal mats of filamentous Vaucheria species, functionally similar to microbial biofilms, cover the topographic highs of regularly spaced ridge–runnel bedforms. As regular patterning is typically associated with self-organization processes, indicators of self-organization are tested and found to support this hypothesis. The measurements suggest that biofilm-induced sediment trapping and biostabilization enhance bedform relief, strength and multi-year persistence. This demonstrates the importance of primitive organisms for sedimentary landscape development. Algal-covered ridges consist of wavy-crinkly laminated sedimentary deposits that resemble the layered structure of fossil stromatolites and microbially induced sedimentary structures. In addition to layering, both the morphological pattern and the suggested formation mechanism of the recent bedforms are strikingly similar to microbialite strata found in rock records from the Precambrian onwards. This implies that self-organization was an important morphological process in times when biofilms were the predominant sessile ecosystem. These findings furthermore emphasize that self-organization dynamics, such as critical transitions invoking ecosystem emergence or collapse, might have been captured in fossil microbialites, influencing their laminae. This notion may be important for paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on such strata. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Application of surface-wave tomography to mineral exploration: a case study from Siilinjärvi,Finland     

Federico Da Col  Myrto Papadopoulou  Emilia Koivisto  Łukasz Sito  Mikko Savolainen  Laura Valentina Socco 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(1):254-269

In order to assess the feasibility and validity of surface-wave tomography as a tool for mineral exploration, we present an active seismic three-dimensional case study from the Siilinjärvi mine in Eastern Finland. The aim of the survey is to identify the formation carrying the mineralization in an area south of the main pit, which will be mined in the future. Before acquiring the data, we performed an accurate survey design to maximize data coverage and minimize the time for deployment and recollection of the equipment. We extract path-averaged Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity dispersion curves by means of a two-station method. We invert them using a computationally efficient tomographic code which does not require the computation of phase-velocity maps and inverts directly for one-dimensional S-wave velocity models. The retrieved velocities are in good agreement with the data from a borehole in the vicinity, and the pseudo three–dimensional S-wave velocity volume allows us to identify the geological contact between the formation hosting most of the mineralization and the surrounding rock. We conclude that the proposed method is a valid tool, given the small amount of equipment used and the acceptable amount of time required to process the data.  相似文献   

Influence of lunar phases,winds and seasonality on the stranding of mesopelagic fish in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea)          下载免费PDF全文

Pietro Battaglia  Giovanni Ammendolia  Mauro Cavallaro  Pierpaolo Consoli  Valentina Esposito  Danilo Malara  Ignazio Rao  Teresa Romeo  Franco Andaloro 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(5)

The shore stranding of mesopelagic fauna is a recurrent phenomenon in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea). The aim of this paper is to test the influence of lunar phases, winds and seasons upon the frequency of occurrence of strandings of mesopelagic fish. Species abundance in relation to these factors was quantified for the first time. Specimens were collected stranded on the shore along the Sicilian coast of the Strait of Messina between 2008 and 2016. Overall 32 species belonging to seven families (Gonostomatidae, Microstomatidae, Myctophidae, Paralepididae, Phosichthyidae, Sternoptychidae, Stomiidae) were found stranded. Myctophidae was the family including the highest number of species (16), whereas Gonostomatidae was the most abundant in terms of total number of individuals (47.2%), mainly thanks to the species Cyclothone braueri. The moon, which influences the strength of currents (highest during full and new moon phases) and irradiance (higher in some lunar phases, such as the full moon), affected the abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish in the study area. The highest number of stranding events was recorded during the new moon: 34.6% of the total relative abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish. Wind blowing from the sea towards the coastline (southeasterly and easterly winds) created the best conditions for strandings. The highest abundance of stranded specimens was recorded during the winter season.  相似文献   

Metallothionein-like proteins induced by cadmium stress in the scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis     

Avianna F. Zhukovskaya  Nina N. Belcheva  Valentina S. Slobodskova  Viktor P. Chelomin 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(3):189-195

Organisms have evolved a cellular response called stress protein response that increases their tolerance in adverse environmental conditions. Well known stress proteins that bind essential and toxic metals are metallothionein (MT). The scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis is the most interesting organism because it is able to accumulate toxic cadmium in its digestive gland. However, in the tissue of the digestive gland of Mizuhopecten yessoensis MT (metallothioneins) have not been found. Eastern scallops, Mizuhopecten yessoensis, were collected from two locations ?? one clean and one polluted site. The concentrations of cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) were measured in the digestive gland. There was a significant increase in Cd concentrations in this studied tissue. We found that in the presence of cadmium Mizuhopecten yessoensis can induce high molecular proteins. The results of experiments have shown that Cd-binding ligands have a number of properties similar to MT: acetone and temperature stability; the ability to bind some metals, including Cd, Cu and Zn. Protein chromatography (FPLC, Superosa 12) from the digestive gland of scallop M. yessoensis has shown that cadmium is associated with high molecular weight Cd-binding proteins (72 kDa and 43 kDa). The major cadmium-binding protein 72 kDa is glycoprotein. In experiments we have demonstrated that Cd-binding proteins can be induced when there is cadmium exposure. The results of this study strongly suggest that the far eastern scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis has a unique and well-developed system for the detoxification of heavy metals and it allows for biochemical systems to be maintained in a relatively stable manner in the presence of heavy metals.  相似文献   

Genotoxic potential of copper oxide nanoparticles in the bivalve mollusk <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus trossulus</Emphasis>     

Victor P. Chelomin  Valentina V. Slobodskova  Maksim Zakhartsev  Sergey Kukla 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2017,16(2):339-345

Copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO-NPs) are among the most widely used metal oxide nanoparticles, which increases the chance of their being released into the marine environment. As the applications of these particles have increased in recent years, their potential impact on the health of marine biota has also increased. However, the toxicological effects of these NPs in the marine environment are poorly known. In the present study, the DNA damaging potential of CuO-NPs in the marine eastern mussel Mytilus trossulus was evaluated and compared to that of dissolved copper exposures. Genotoxicity was assessed by the single cell gel electrophoresis (comet) assay in mussel gill and digestive gland cells. The results showed that copper in both forms (CuO-NPs and dissolved copper) was accumulated to different extents in mussel tissues. The mussel exposed to the dissolved copper attained higher concentrations of copper in the gills than in the digestive gland. In contrast to these results, it was found that CuO-NPs could induce much higher copper accumulation in the digestive gland than in the gills. A clear and statistically significant increase in DNA damage was found in both tissues of the Cu-exposed group compared to the control mussels. Our results indicated that the CuO-NP exposure produced remarkable effects and increased DNA damage significantly in mussel gill cells only. It should be noted that the digestive gland cells were prone to accumulation following CuO-NPs when compared to the gill cells, while the gill cells were more sensitive to the genotoxic effects of CuO-NPs. These results also suggested the need for a complete risk assessment of engineered particles before its arrival in the consumer market.  相似文献   

New challenges in integrated water quality modelling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael Rode  George Arhonditsis  Daniela Balin  Tesfaye Kebede  Valentina Krysanova  Ann van Griensven  Sjoerd E. A. T. M. van der Zee 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3447-3461

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Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications     

Valentina Krysanova  Fred Hattermann  Shaochun Huang  Cornelia Hesse  Tobias Vetter  Stefan Liersch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):606-635

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?