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73.
Tobias Lung Alessandro Dosio William Becker Carlo Lavalle Laurens M. Bouwer 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):211-227
Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options. 相似文献
74.
To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets. 相似文献
75.
Abstract A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters. 相似文献
76.
Riccardo Camattari Alessandro Battelli Valerio Bellucci Vincenzo Guidi 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(1):1-10
The realization of a Laue lens for astronomical purposes involves the mass production of a series of crystalline tiles as optical components, allowing high-efficiency diffraction and high-resolution focusing of photons. Crystals with self-standing curved diffraction planes is a valid and promising solution. Exploiting the quasi-mosaic effect, it turns out to be possible to diffract radiation at higher resolution. In this paper we present the realization of 150 quasi-mosaic Ge samples, bent by grooving one of their largest surface. We show that grooving method is a viable technique to manufacture such crystals in a simple and very reproducible way, thus compatible with mass production. Realized samples present very homogenous curvature. Furthermore, with a specific chemical etch, it is possible to fine adjust one by one the radius of curvature of the grooved samples. Realized crystals was selected for the ASI’s Laue project, that involves the implementation of a prototype of a Laue lens for hard X- and soft γ-ray astronomy. 相似文献
77.
Thierry Montmerle Jean-Charles Augereau Marc Chaussidon Mathieu Gounelle Bernard Marty Alessandro Morbidelli 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2006,98(1-4):39-95
The solar system, as we know it today, is about 4.5 billion years old. It is widely believed that it was essentially completed 100 million years after the formation of the Sun, which itself took less than 1 million years, although the exact chronology remains highly uncertain. For instance: which, of the giant planets or the terrestrial planets, formed first, and how? How did they acquire their mass? What was the early evolution of the “primitive solar nebula” (solar nebula for short)? What is its relation with the circumstellar disks that are ubiquitous around young low-mass stars today? Is it possible to define a “time zero” (t 0), the epoch of the formation of the solar system? Is the solar system exceptional or common? This astronomical chapter focuses on the early stages, which determine in large part the subsequent evolution of the proto-solar system. This evolution is logarithmic, being very fast initially, then gradually slowing down. The chapter is thus divided in three parts: (1) The first million years: the stellar era. The dominant phase is the formation of the Sun in a stellar cluster, via accretion of material from a circumstellar disk, itself fed by a progressively vanishing circumstellar envelope. (2) The first 10 million years: the disk era. The dominant phase is the evolution and progressive disappearance of circumstellar disks around evolved young stars; planets will start to form at this stage. Important constraints on the solar nebula and on planet formation are drawn from the most primitive objects in the solar system, i.e., meteorites. (3) The first 100 million years: the “telluric” era. This phase is dominated by terrestrial (rocky) planet formation and differentiation, and the appearance of oceans and atmospheres. 相似文献
78.
Vittorio Banfi 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1982,27(2):165-177
The containment of a diffused and ionized mass orbiting around a magnetized central body is herein studied and the condition equation is established. Some qualitative and quantitative applications to the planetary cosmogony problems are developed. 相似文献
79.
Alessandro Marconi Roberto Maiolino Romain G. Petrov 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,286(1-2):245-254
Interferometry in the optical and near infrared has so far played a marginal role in Extragalactic Astronomy. Active Galactic
Nuclei are the brightest and most compact extragalactic sources, nonetheless only a very limited number could be studied with
speckle interferometry and none with long baseline interferometry. The VLTI will allow the study of moderately faint extragalactic
objects with very high spatial resolution thus opening a new window on the universe. With this paper we focus on three scientific
cases to show how AMBER and MIDI can be used to tackle open issues in extragalactic astronomy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
80.
Gerhard Hensler Daniel Tschöke Dominik Bomans Alessandro Boselli 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,284(2):467-470
Observations of the Virgo Cluster galaxy NGC 4569 in soft X-rays and in Hα reveal both an asymmetrically distributed hot gaseous
halo and a giant filament of diffuse emission, respectively, extending from the same side of the disk, the latter one to at
least 8.8 kpc. A deep longslit spectrum along the filament shows velocities systematically different from the systemic velocity
of NGC 4569. With the inclination of the disk one can determine the Hα spur as a giant outflow in NGC 4569.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献