How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G.B Crosta  F Agliardi 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(36):1557-1565

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.  相似文献   

Synthesis of zeolites using fly ash and their application in removing heavy metals from waters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王焰新  郭永龙  杨志华  蔡鹤生  Xavier Querol 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(9):967-976

Fly ash is the solid waste of thermal power plants where coal is used as fuel, and its management and utilization have been of environmental concern for decades. Since the technique of synthesizing zeolite from coal fly ash was introduced by Holler[1] (19…  相似文献   

The electrical structure of the Slave craton   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Alan G. Jones  Pamela Lezaeta  Ian J. Ferguson  Alan D. Chave  Rob L. Evans  Xavier Garcia  Jessica Spratt 《Lithos》2003,71(2-4):505-527

The Slave craton in northwestern Canada, a relatively small Archean craton (600×400 km), is ideal as a natural laboratory for investigating the formation and evolution of Mesoarchean and Neoarchean sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). Excellent outcrop and the discovery of economic diamondiferous kimberlite pipes in the centre of the craton during the early 1990s have led to an unparalleled amount of geoscientific information becoming available.

Over the last 5 years deep-probing electromagnetic surveys were conducted on the Slave, using the natural-source magnetotelluric (MT) technique, as part of a variety of programs to study the craton and determine its regional-scale electrical structure. Two of the four types of surveys involved novel MT data acquisition; one through frozen lakes along ice roads during winter, and the second using ocean-bottom MT instrumentation deployed from float planes.

The primary initial objective of the MT surveys was to determine the geometry of the topography of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) across the Slave craton. However, the MT responses revealed, completely serendipitously, a remarkable anomaly in electrical conductivity in the SCLM of the central Slave craton. This Central Slave Mantle Conductor (CSMC) anomaly is modelled as a localized region of low resistivity (10–15 Ω m) beginning at depths of 80–120 km and striking NE–SW. Where precisely located, it is spatially coincident with the Eocene-aged kimberlite field in the central part of the craton (the so-called “Corridor of Hope”), and also with a geochemically defined ultra-depleted harzburgitic layer interpreted as oceanic or arc-related lithosphere emplaced during early tectonism. The CSMC lies wholly within the NE–SW striking central zone defined by Grütter et al. [Grütter, H.S., Apter, D.B., Kong, J., 1999. Crust–mantle coupling; evidence from mantle-derived xenocrystic garnets. Contributed paper at: The 7th International Kimberlite Conference Proceeding, J.B. Dawson Volume, 1, 307–313] on the basis of garnet geochemistry (G10 vs. G9) populations.

Deep-probing MT data from the lake bottom instruments infer that the conductor has a total depth-integrated conductivity (conductance) of the order of 2000 Siemens, which, given an internal resistivity of 10–15 Ω m, implies a thickness of 20–30 km. Below the CSMC the electrical resistivity of the lithosphere increases by a factor of 3–5 to values of around 50 Ω m. This change occurs at depths consistent with the graphite–diamond transition, which is taken as consistent with a carbon interpretation for the CSMC.

Preliminary three-dimensional MT modelling supports the NE–SW striking geometry for the conductor, and also suggests a NW dip. This geometry is taken as implying that the tectonic processes that emplaced this geophysical–geochemical body are likely related to the subduction of a craton of unknown provenance from the SE (present-day coordinates) during 2630–2620 Ma. It suggests that the lithospheric stacking model of Helmstaedt and Schulze [Helmstaedt, H.H., Schulze, D.J., 1989. Southern African kimberlites and their mantle sample: implications for Archean tectonics and lithosphere evolution. In Ross, J. (Ed.), Kimberlites and Related Rocks, Vol. 1: Their Composition, Occurrence, Origin, and Emplacement. Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, vol. 14, 358–368] is likely correct for the formation of the Slave's current SCLM.  相似文献   

Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data     

Xavier Emery 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(6):699-718

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.  相似文献   

Evaluating rock mass geometry from photographic images   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G. Crosta 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1997,30(1):35-58

Summary The importance of discontinuities in controlling rock mass behaviour in any engineering project involving excavations calls for a sound and spatial characterization of the discontinuity structure present. Such a characterization necessitates field work that requires sufficient rock exposures in order to obtain an adequate number of data, time and considerable cost. Photoanalysis techniques can help in overcoming the above difficulties equally well or better than other techniques. This paper refers to simple photographic techniques and their implementation for computer aided analyses for the characterization of the rock mass fracturing features. In particular attention is focused on scale problems and on reconstruction of fracture density stereoplots on the basis of data collected from one or two images according to different lithologies and outcropping conditions. The methodology for evaluating the volumetric fracture intensity follows in a slightly modified way a technique previously suggested in the literature. Certain reported examples allow to validate the photoanalytical technique used and the proposed method of analysis. Furthermore, analyses on planar density, spacing, frequency, terminations in solid rock or against other discontinuities and spatial correlation have been implemented in a software to yield a more complete rock mass characterization. At the same time input data and analysis results are produced in data files available as input for numerical analyses.  相似文献   

Controls on modern alluvial fan processes in the central Alps,northern Italy     

Giovanni B. Crosta  Paolo Frattini 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(3):267-293

Alluvial fan development in Alpine areas is often affected by catastrophic sedimentary processes associated with extreme ?oods events, causing serious risks for people living on the fans. Hazard assessment in these areas depends on proper identi?cation of the dominant sedimentary processes on the fans. Data from a set of 209 alluvial fans from the central Alps of Italy are presented in this paper and analysed with the help of various statistical techniques (linear regression, principal components analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic regression). First, we used modern sedimentary facies and historical records (?ood events since 15th century), to distinguish between the two dominant sedimentary processes on alluvial fans: debris ?ows and stream?ows. Then, in order to analyse the main controls on past and present fan processes, 36 morphological, geological and land‐use variables were analysed. As with observations for arid‐environment fans, catchment morphology is the most in?uential factor in the study area, whereas geology and land use are minor controls. The role of climatic change and landsliding within the catchments also seems to be very important and is discussed. Statistical techniques also help in differentiating groups of alluvial fans by sets of controlling factors, including stage and type of evolution. Finally, by using discriminant analysis and logistic regression, we classi?ed alluvial fans according to the dominant sedimentary process, with a success rate ranging between 75 and 92 per cent. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Histogram and variogram inference in the multigaussian model   总被引：1，自引：4，他引：1  

Xavier Emery  Julián M. Ortiz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(1):48-58

Several iterative algorithms are proposed to improve the histogram and variogram inference in the framework of the multigaussian model. The starting point is the variogram obtained after a traditional normal score transform. The subsequent step consists in simulating many sets of gaussian values with this variogram at the data locations, so that the ranking of the original values is honored. The expected gaussian transformation and the expected variogram are computed by an averaging operation over the simulated datasets. The variogram model is then updated and the procedure is repeated until convergence. Such an iterative algorithm can adapt to the case of tied data and despike the histogram. Two additional issues are also examined, referred to the modeling of the empirical transformation function and to the optimal pair weighting when computing the sample variogram.  相似文献   

Geostatistical simulation of random fields with bivariate isofactorial distributions by adding mosaic models     

Xavier Emery 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(5):348-360

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of a family of stationary random field models with bivariate isofactorial distributions. Such models are defined as the sum of independent random fields with mosaic-type bivariate distributions and infinitely divisible univariate distributions. For practical applications, dead leaf tessellations are used since they provide a wide range of models and allow conditioning the realizations to a set of data via an iterative procedure (simulated annealing). The model parameters can be determined by comparing the data variogram and madogram, and enable to control the spatial connectivity of the extreme values in the realizations. An illustration to a forest dataset is presented, for which a negative binomial model is used to characterize the distribution of coniferous trees over a wooded area.  相似文献   

Conditional Simulation of Random Fields with Bivariate Gamma Isofactorial Distributions   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Xavier Emery 《Mathematical Geology》2005,37(4):419-445

This work focuses on a random function model with gamma marginal and bivariate isofactorial distributions, which has been applied in mining geostatistics for estimating recoverable reserves by disjunctive kriging. The objective is to widen its use to conditional simulation and further its application to the modeling of continuous attributes in geosciences. First, the main properties of the bivariate gamma isofactorial distributions are analyzed, with emphasis in the destructuring of the extreme values, the presence of a proportional effect (higher variability in high-valued areas), and the asymmetry in the spatial correlation of the indicator variables with respect to the median threshold. Then, we provide examples of stationary random functions with such bivariate distributions, for which the shape parameter of the marginal distribution is half an integer. These are defined as the sum of squared independent Gaussian random fields. An iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to perform the simulation conditional to a set of existing data. Such ‘multivariate chi-square’ model generalizes the well-known multigaussian model and is more flexible, since it allows defining a shape parameter which controls the asymmetry of the marginal and bivariate distributions.  相似文献   

Linking multi-level governance to local common-pool resource theory using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis: Insights from twenty years of biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica     

Xavier Basurto 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(3):573-587

Understanding the relationship between multi-level institutional linkages and conditions influencing the likelihood of successful collective action has practical and theoretical relevance to sustainable local resource governance. This paper studies the relationship between multi-level linkages and local autonomy, a facilitating condition found to increase the likelihood of local successful collective action. A technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to a longitudinal comparative data set. In the context of the decentralization of a protected area system in Costa Rica (1986–2006), it traced the emergence and endurance of autonomy among local institutions for biodiversity conservation. The technique illustrates which set of multi-level linkages combined in different ways, and at different points in time, to reach the same outcome (local autonomy). The findings show that a unique set of combinations of multi-level linkages led to the emergence of local autonomy among institutions for biodiversity conservation governance. In contrast, a more diverse set was associated with the endurance of local autonomy over time, suggesting that institutional diversity may play a more prominent role in the maintenance of institutional robustness than in processes of institutional emergence.  相似文献