Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

Common Proper Motion Search for Faint Companions Around Early-Type Field Stars – Progress Report     

Valentin D. Ivanov  G. Chauvin  C. Foellmi  M. Hartung  N. Huélamo  C. Melo  D. Nürnberger  M. Sterzik 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2006,304(1-4):247-249

The multiplicity of early-type stars is still not well established. The derived binary fraction is different for individual star forming regions, suggesting a connection with the age and the environment conditions. The few studies that have investigated this connection do not provide conclusive results. To fill in this gap, we started the first detailed adaptive-optic-assisted imaging survey of early-type field stars to derive their multiplicity in a homogeneous way. The sample has been extracted from the Hipparcos Catalog and consists of 341 BA-type stars within ∼300 pc from the Sun. We report the current status of the survey and describe a Monte-Carlo simulation that estimates the completeness of our companion detection.  相似文献   

Influence of inhomogeneity of the magnetic field on the excitation of longitudinal waves in pulsar magnetospheres     

A. Z. Kazbegi  G. Z. Machabeli  G. I. Melikidze 《Astrophysics》1986,25(1):425-428

  相似文献   

Simulating methane emission from a Chinese rice field as influenced by fertilizer and water level     

Z. Yu  X. Shangguan  D. Pollard  E. J. Barron 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3485-3501

Natural and agricultural wetlands are considered to be the major sources of global atmospheric methane (CH₄). A one‐dimensional model was developed to simulate methane emission and used to examine the influence of various physical processes on the rate of methane emission. Three processes involved in the methane emission are implemented in the model: production, reoxidation and transport. Three transport pathways were considered: diffusion across water–air or soil–air interfaces, ebullition and diffusion through plants. These pathways are influenced by soil properties, plant growth, water‐table conditions, temperature and external inputs (e.g. fertilizer). The model was used to examine the seasonal variation of the methane emission at a rice field in Hunan, China, which was observed during a field experiment for consecutive (early and late) rice seasons in 1992. The observed seasonal variations of methane emission, and role of plants in transporting methane to the atmosphere, are captured by the model simulation. Further model applications were conducted to simulate effects of fertilizer and water‐level condition on the methane emission. The results indicate that unfermented organic fertilizer produces a higher methane emission rate than mineral fertilizer. The simulations with treatments of a deep‐water covering and constant moisture reduced the methane emission. The rice field study provides a framework for further development of the model towards simulations based on spatially distributed variables (e.g. water table, soil temperature and vegetation) at a regional scale. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Remote sensing for ocean resources     

S Z Qasim 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》1992,20(4):175-182

  相似文献   

A 20 cm2 CCD mosaic camera for a dark matter search part I : Mechanics,optics and cryogeny     

Arnaud  M.  Aubourg  E.  Bareyre  P.  Br';ehin  S.  Caridroit  R.  de Kat  J.  Dispau  G.  Djidi  K.  Gros  M.  Lachièze-Rey  M.  Laigneau  Y.  Laurent  B.  Lesquoy  E.  Lavocat  Ph.  Magneville  C.  Mazeau  B.  Milsztajn  A.  Moscoso  L.  Pasquaud  J.  Paul  B.  Perrin  P.  Petibon  J.  Piret  Y.  Queinnec  F.  Rich  J.  Spiro  M.  de Trogoff  J.  Vigroux  L.  Zylberajch  S.  Ansari  R.  Cavalier  F.  Moniez  M.  Beaulieu  J. P.  Ferlet  R.  Grison  Ph.  Vidal-Madjar  A.  Adrianzyk  G.  Berger  J. P.  Burnage  R.  Delclite  J. C.  Kohler  D.  Magnan  R.  Richaud  A.  Guibert  J.  Moreau  O.  Tajahmady  F.  Baranne  A.  Maurice  E.  Prévôt  L.  Gry  C. 《Experimental Astronomy》1994,4(3-4):265-278

A 20cm ² CCD mosaic camera has been especially built to search for dark galactic halo objects by the gravitational microlensing effect. The sensitive area is made of 16 edge-buttable CCDs developped by Thomson-CTS, with 23×23 µm ² pixels. The 35 kg camera housing and mechanical equipment is presented. The associated electronics and data acquisition system are described in a separate paper. The camera resides at the focal plane of a 40 cm, f/10, Ferson reflector. The instrument has been in operation since December 1991 at the La Silla Observatory (ESO).  相似文献   

WIMPs and solar evolution code     

Yannick Giraud-Héraud  Jean Kaplan  François De Volnay Martin  Charling Tao  Sylvaine Turck-Chièze 《Solar physics》1990,128(1):21-33

The Saclay solar evolution code is used to check the effect of WIMPs on solar evolution. In this paper we study the effects of various types of Cosmion-matter interactions, give constraints on the crosssections compatible with the measured neutrino rate of 2 SNU on chlorine, and relate these constraints to ongoing dark matter detection experiments.Unité associée au CNRS UA 280, F-75251 Paris Cedex 05, France.On leave from LPC, Collège de France.  相似文献   

Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xia Changshui  Qiao Fangli  Zhang Mengning  Yang Yongzeng  Yuan Yeli 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):292-298

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).  相似文献   

Numerical simulations of high-speed solar wind streams within 1 AU and their signatures at 1 AU     

Z. Smith  M. Dryer 《Solar physics》1991,131(2):363-383

A parametric study of the evolution within, and signatures at, 1 AU of high-speed streams is performed with the use of a MHD, 21/2-D, time-dependent model. This study is an extension of an earlier one by Smith and Dryer (1990) who examined the ecliptic plane consequences of relatively short-duration, energetic solar disturbances. The present study examines both the erupting and corotating parts of long-duration, high-speed streams characteristic of coronal hole flows. By examining the variation of the simulated plasma velocity, density, temperature, and magnetic field at 1 AU, as well as the location of the solar coronal hole sources relative to the observer at 1 AU, we are able to provide some insight into the identification of the solar sources of interplanetary disturbances. We present and discuss two definitions for angle locating the solar source of interplanetary disturbances at 1 AU.We apply our results to the suggestion by Hewish (1988) that low-latitude coronal holes are suitably positioned to be the sources of major geomagnetic storms when the holes are in the eastern half of the solar hemisphere at the time of the commencement of the storm. Our results indicate that, for these cases, the streams emanating from within the hole must be very fast, greater than 1000 km s^–1, or very wide, greater than 60°, at the inner boundary of 18 solar radii in our simulation.  相似文献   

Technique for Controlling Spread of Limnotic Oncomelania   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李大美  王祥三  LAI Yonggen 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(3):251-260

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease mostly found in areas along the Changjiang River of China. The disease is spread solely through an intermediary named oncomelania, so its spread of schistosomiasis can be controlled by properly designing water intakes which prevent oncomelania from entering farming land or residential areas. This paper reports a successful design process and a new oncomelania-free intake device. The design of the new intake is based on a sound research program in which extensive experimental studies were carried out to gain knowledge of oncomelania eco-hydraulic behavior and detailed flow field information through CFD simulation.  相似文献