Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping          下载免费PDF全文

Lorenzo Alfieri  Peter Salamon  Alessandra Bianchi  Jeffrey Neal  Paul Bates  Luc Feyen 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4067-4077

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Beach Crowding Index: A Tool for Assessing Social Carrying Capacity of Vulnerable Beaches     

David Serrano Giné  Joan Jurado Rota  María Yolanda Pérez Albert  Carla Bonfill Cerveró 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(3):412-422

The aim of this article is to introduce the Beach Crowding Index (BCI), a procedure to assess the social carrying capacity of vulnerable beaches. The study uses the people at one time (PAOT) approach and data gathered weekly throughout the bathing season regarding the number of beachgoers in 100 m² cells of the beach to assess how many beachgoers it can comfortably hold. The procedure is based on fieldwork, interviews with beachgoers, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis and has been tested on four beaches in protected areas on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. On a scale from 0 to 4, minimum scores throughout the bathing season are 0.7 and maximum 3.7, although results showed wide variation between the beaches, the section of the beach, and the time of day. This study suggests that determining the location of beachgoers and collecting a long-term series of data is fundamental to assessing social carrying capacity and that the BCI procedure can be used for a large number of applications.  相似文献   

Early Jurassic palaeoenvironments in the Surat Basin,Australia – marine incursion into eastern Gondwana     

Andrew D. La Croix  Jianhua He  Valeria Bianchi  Jiahao Wang  Sebastian Gonzalez  Jim R. Undershultz 《Sedimentology》2020,67(1):457-485

Interpretations of palaeodepositional environments are important for reconstructing Earth history. Only a few maps showing the Jurassic depositional environments in eastern Australia currently exist. Consequently, a detailed understanding of the setting of Australia in Gondwana is lacking. Core, wireline logs, two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic from the Precipice Sandstone and Evergreen Formation in the Surat Basin have been used to construct maps showing the evolution of depositional environments through the Early Jurassic. The results indicate the succession consists of three third-order sequences (Sequence 1 to Sequence 3) that were controlled by eustatic sea level. The lowstand systems tract in Sequence 1 comprises braidplain deposits, confined to a fairway that parallels the basin centre. The strata were initially deposited in two sub-basins, with rivers flowing in different orientations in each sub-basin. The transgressive systems tract of Sequence 1 to lowstand systems tract of Sequence 3 is dominated by fluvio–deltaic systems infilling a single merged basin centre. Finally, the transgressive and highstand systems tracts of Sequence 3 show nearshore environments depositing sediment into a shallow marine basin. In the youngest part of this interval, ironstone shoals are the most conspicuous facies, the thickness and number of which increase towards the north and east. This study interprets a corridor to the open ocean through the Clarence–Moreton Basin, or the Carpentaria and Papuan basins, evidence of which has been eroded. These results challenge a commonly held view that eastern Australia was not influenced by eustasy, and propose a more dynamic palaeogeographic setting comprising a mixture of fluvial, deltaic and shallow marine sedimentary environments. This work can be used to unravel the stratigraphic relationships between Mesozoic eastern Australian basins, or in other basins globally as an analogue for understanding the complex interplay of paralic depositional systems in data poor areas.  相似文献   

Cultural land use and vegetation dynamics in the uplands of northern Portugal from the Middle Ages to the Modern period     

Carla Sá Ferreira  Gill Plunkett  Luís Fontes 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(5):695-705

In Europe, mountain landscapes have evolved in a long-term relationship with human communities and present-day landscapes reflect that ancient interaction. The present study aims to reconstruct human activity in two mountain areas in northern Portugal using palynological analysis integrated with the available regional historical, archaeological and palaeoenvironmental archives. Pollen records from two sedimentary sequences span the Medieval and Modern periods and show that mixed agriculture and livestock grazing were consistently present in both regions throughout these times. Variations in cultural indicators show that the extent of farming fluctuated throughout time, with a general increase in cultivation during the Medieval period but with contractions likely coinciding with times of social disturbance. Historical sources suggest that sociopolitical factors and population pressure were fundamental in the utilisation of upland spaces. This study did not find any convincing evidence to suggest that fire was a fundamental factor in heathland spread. We conclude that long-term occupation of the uplands was sustained by low-intensity land use throughout the Medieval to post-Medieval periods, and that the present landscape has assumed a very different character following depopulation of the mountain areas and a shift towards commercial forestry.  相似文献   

DISOLV: A Python Package for the Interpretation of Borehole Dilution Tests     

Sarah L. Collins  Marco Bianchi 《Ground water》2020,58(5):805-812

Single borehole dilution tests (SBDTs) are an inexpensive but effective technique for hydrogeological characterization of hard-rock aquifers. We present a freely available, easy-to-use, open-source Python package, DISOLV, for plotting, analyzing, and modeling SBDT data. DISOLV can significantly reduce the time spent interpreting field data by helping to identify flowing fractures intersecting the borehole and estimate the corresponding flow rates. DISOLV is successfully benchmarked against two analytical solutions. We also present an example application to real data collected in a borehole in a crystalline basement aquifer in southern India.  相似文献   

Identification of the principal patterns of summer moisture transport in South America and their representation by WCRP/CMIP3 global climate models     

Carla Gulizia  Inés Camilloni  Moira Doyle 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):227-241

The goal of this study is to assess the ability of a set of global climate models (GCMs) to represent the main regional spatial patterns of austral summer moisture transport in South America in order to evaluate if one of the possible causes of GCMs misestimating summer precipitation in this region could be associated with an erroneous representation of these patterns. For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and 20 GCMs from the WCRP/CMIP3 multi-model dataset for the period 1960–1999 were considered. Extreme cases of moisture transport patterns were selected to assess their association with rainfall anomalies. Results obtained indicate that only some aspects of water vapor transport and convergence in South America as well as the associated precipitation anomalies can be reproduced adequately by GCMs. Finally, a case study is presented showing that one of the moisture transport patterns identified was observed during December 2008–February 2009.  相似文献   

Phenological Changes of Blooming Diatoms Promoted by Compound Bottom-Up and Top-Down Controls     

Valeria A. Guinder  Juan Carlos Molinero  Celeste M. López Abbate  Anabela A. Berasategui  Cecilia A. Popovich  Carla V. Spetter  Jorge E. Marcovecchio  Rubén H. Freije 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(1):95-104

Understanding phytoplankton species-specific responses to multiple biotic and abiotic stressors is fundamental to assess phenological and structural shifts at the community level. Here, we present the case of Thalassiosira curviseriata, a winter-blooming diatom in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina, which displayed a noticeable decrease in the past decade along with conspicuous changes in phenology. We compiled interannual field data to assess compound effects of environmental variations and grazing by the invasive copepod Eurytemora americana. The two species displayed opposite trends over the period examined. The diatom decreased toward the last years, mainly during the winters, and remained relatively constant over the other seasons, while the copepod increased toward the last years, with an occurrence restricted to winter and early spring. A quantitative assessment by structural equation modeling unveiled that the observed long-term trend of T. curviseriata resulted from the synergistic effects of environmental changes driven by water temperature, salinity, and grazing. These results suggest that the shift in the abundance distribution of T. curviseriata toward higher annual ranges of temperature and salinity—as displayed by habitat association curves—constitutes a functional response to avoid seasonal overlapping with its predator in late winters. The observed changes in the timing and abundance of the blooming species resulted in conspicuous shifts in primary production pulses. Our results provide insights on mechanistic processes shaping the phenology and structure of phytoplankton blooms.  相似文献   

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions     

Süleyman Dündar  Nuno A. Dias  Graça Silveira  Rainer Kind  Lev Vinnik  Luís Matias  Marcelo Bianchi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(6):1949-1970

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Towards a predictive model to assess the natural position of the Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows upper limit     

Matteo Vacchi  Monica Montefalcone  Chiara F. Schiaffino  Valeriano Parravicini  Carlo Nike Bianchi  Carla Morri  Marco Ferrari 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

The upper portion of the meadows of the protected Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica occurs in the region of the seafloor mostly affected by surf-related effects. Evaluation of its status is part of monitoring programs, but proper conclusions are difficult to draw due to the lack of definite reference conditions. Comparing the position of the meadow upper limit with the beach morphodynamics (i.e. the distinctive type of beach produced by topography and wave climate) provided evidence that the natural landwards extension of meadows can be predicted. An innovative model was therefore developed in order to locate the region of the seafloor where the meadow upper limit should lie in natural conditions (i.e. those governed only by hydrodynamics, in absence of significant anthropogenic impact). This predictive model was validated in additional sites, which showed perfect agreement between predictions and observations. This makes the model a valuable tool for coastal management.  相似文献   

Archaeological evidence for destructive earthquakes in Sicily between 400 B.C. and A.D. 600     

Carla Bottari  Stathis C. Stiros  Antonio Teramo 《Geoarchaeology》2009,24(2):147-175

A systematic archaeoseismological study indicates that at least three earthquakes occurred between 400 B.C. and A.D. 600, causing destruction to numerous ancient monuments in Sicily. Evidence for these earthquakes comes from the collapse style of buildings (toppled walls, column drums in a domino‐style arrangement, directional collapses, etc.), and the exclusion of other likely causes for such effects. Dating of inferred earthquakes is based on coins (accurate to within 5–10 years), pottery (accurate to within 50–200 years), and other artifacts. The oldest documented earthquake occurred between 370 and 300 B.C. and caused the collapse of two Greek temples in Selinunte. This otherwise poorly documented event was probably also the cause of extensive destruction in northeastern Sicily in the first century A.D. Destruction of some sites may be assigned to an earthquake that occurred between 360 and 374 and correlates with the A.D. 365 seismic sequence known from historical sources. This study covers a wider region and provides a more precise dating of earthquakes than previous studies. Although it focuses on a certain period (4th–3rd centuries B.C., 4th–7th centuries A.D.), it indicates that the period before A.D. 1000 is not a period of seismic quiescence in Sicily as was previously believed, but to a period characterized by strong and destructive earthquakes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献