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21.
Summary ?Over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere’s continents temperature has been increasing during the last century. Particularly
minimum temperatures show a more pronounced increase than maximum temperatures. Not only the phenological seasons, but also
the potentially plant damaging late frost events are governed by the atmosphere. In case of a rise of minimum temperatures
one would expect phenological phases and spring late frost events to occur earlier. In this work the question is elucidated
whether plant phenology shifts at a higher or lower rate towards earlier occurrences than potential plant damaging events,
like spring late frost events. Frost events based on the last occurrence of daily minimum temperatures below a certain threshold
have been moving faster to earlier occurrence dates than phenological phases during the last decades at 50 climate stations
in Central Europe. Trend values of frost time series range around −0.2 days/year and of phenological time series are between
−0.2 and 0.0 days/year over the period from 1951–1997. ‘Corylus avellana beginning of pollination’ is the only one of the 13 phases considered here with a lower trend value of −0.28 days/year. Early
phases are more adapted to below zero temperatures and therefore follow more closely the temperature variability. Later phases
seem to have more reason to be concerned about possible late frost events and react more cautiously towards higher spring
temperatures and earlier last frost dates. The risk of late frost damage for plants should have been lower during the last
decade as compared to the previous decades.
Received June 28, 2002; accepted July 18, 2002 相似文献
22.
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Uwe Ulbrich Tim brücher Dariusz Graczyk Andreas Krüger Gregor C. Leckebusch Lucas Menzel Iwona Pińskwar Maciej Radziejewski Małgorzata Szwed 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):165-189
In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings. 相似文献
23.
应用小波收缩方法剔除MODIS热红外波段数据条带噪声 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10
采用多元并扫方式 (1km分辨率 1 0元并扫 ,5 0 0m分辨率 2 0元并扫 ,2 5 0m分辨率 4 0元并扫 )的MODIS传感器由于各探测单元在轨响应差异而引起的条带噪声对MODIS定量产品的反演计算精度造成一定影响。这种影响在MODIS的热红外波段尤其明显。为了尽可能减少这种影响 ,提高MODIS定量产品反演精度 ,提出应用小波收缩方法剔除MODIS数据条带噪声。研究首先使用连续小波变换方法分析MODIS条带数据 ,确定MODIS数据条带噪声在小波系数域中的尺度。其次 ,在分析条带噪声模式的基础上 ,使用小波收缩方法对MODIS 1B数据进行噪声剔除计算。最后比较了分别使用噪声剔除前后的两组MODIS 1B数据反演得到的部分云和大气定量遥感产品 ,结果表明 ,使用剔除噪声后的MODIS 1B数据反演的定量遥感产品精度具有明显的提高 相似文献
24.
The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge
conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area
of approx. 110,000 km2. This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions
under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (“business as usual”) are then used as input to the method
of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the
investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The
study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However,
the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads
to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. 相似文献
25.
26.
The concentration of lignin degradation products (vanillin, and syringealdehyde) generated by oxidizing sediment samples with nitrobenzene were considered in an approach to follow the seaward transport of terrestrially derived organic matter. The concentrations of vanillin and syringealdehyde ranged from about 1 per cent of the total ‘organic matter’ in samples taken from inland rivers along the Georgia coast to < 0.1 per cent in samples taken from the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia and Texas. 相似文献
27.
Jan-Olaf Meynecke Elisa Seyboth Jasper De Bie Jan-Lukas Menzel Barraqueta Abdoulkadri Chama Subhra Prakash Dey Serena Blyth Lee Vivitskaia Tulloch Marcello Vichi Ken Findlay Alakendra Narayan Roychoudhury Brendan Mackey 《Marine Ecology》2020,41(6):e12616
Globally, baleen whales were severely depleted by historic whaling. Recovering populations have been observed to alter their behaviour. These changes have been attributed to climate change in some cases and raise concerns over the successful recovery of baleen whale populations. Current data-driven statistical habitat and behavioural models have proven useful for addressing questions of whale distribution changes within their limitations. Given observed changes in oceanic conditions, a new approach to managing baleen whale population recovery is necessary. Model predictions of future whale movements and distributions under climate change scenarios are vital to enable adequate conservation management. This paper presents a new perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change on humpback whales, arguing the need for a system-based multidisciplinary research approach. Our approach includes coupled, mechanistic models based upon robust ecological principles, and integrates key physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecological modules to address long-term changes associated with climate change. To illustrate the need for this system-based multidisciplinary approach, we focus on Southern Hemisphere humpback whales, the recovery of which may be impacted by rapid changes in habitat conditions brought about by anthropogenic climate change. 相似文献
28.
In this study, we simulated the snow water equivalent (SWE), rain-on-snow (ROS) events, evapotranspiration, and run-off for the period 1961–2016 in a central European region covered by low mountain ranges (<820 m a.s.l.) using a distributed hydrological model TRAnspiration and INterception evaporation model (TRAIN). We utilized improved cloud-free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover products to evaluate the modelled snow-covered area, indicating a good performance of the snow modelling. We analysed the intra- and inter-annual variations of the simulated hydrological variables and the synchronous climate variables (air temperature and precipitation). Trend detection indicates a significant SWE decline throughout the snow season, but principally at the high elevations; the most severe warming occurred in early spring (March), whereas precipitation showed a slight increase in January and February. The snowpack in February has displayed the most striking reduction during the past 56 years, which is likely related to both the highest susceptibility of snow to warming and the increased ROS occurrence in February since the early 1990s. The increased combination of high temperatures and extreme rainfalls, as well as the earlier snowmelt, has resulted in a run-off increase during the earlier winter but a decrease in March. The expected changing climate towards warmer and wetter winters will probably exacerbate winter flooding in the future. 相似文献
29.
Diana Menzel Stefan Schouten Pim F. van Bergen Jaap S. Sinninghe Damst 《Organic Geochemistry》2004,35(11-12):1343
The δ13C values of higher plant wax C27–33 n-alkanes were determined in three, time-equivalent Pliocene (2.943 Ma) sapropels and homogeneous calcareous ooze from three different sites forming an east-west transect in the eastern Mediterranean Basin in order to study the composition of the vegetation on the continents surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. A two-end member mixing model transformed the measured δ13C values into the contribution of C4 plants to the terrestrial vegetation. These calculations indicated a high C4 plant contribution (i.e. 40–50%) in the periods just before and just after sapropel formation. During sapropel deposition the C4 plant contribution increased by up to 20% at all sites. This is interpreted to record the increased overall plant coverage of the Mediterranean borderlands resulting from the change in formerly barren desert areas into C4 grass-dominated savannahs as a response to the wetter climate during sapropel deposition. Enhanced accumulation rates (ARs) of long-chain n-alkanes (C27–33) and n-alkan-1-ols (C26–30) towards the middle of the sapropel in concert with a decrease in the Ti/Al ratio confirm an increased delivery of terrigenous organic matter at all sites. These biomarkers were probably predominantly fluvially transported to the Mediterranean Sea, not only by the Nile but by fossil wadi river systems on the northern African continent. 相似文献
30.
D. Cane C. Wastl S. Barbarino L. A. Renier C. Schunk A. Menzel 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):733-746
In Europe, wildfires are an issue not only for the Mediterranean area, but also in the Alpine regions in terms of increasing number of events and severity. In this study we evaluate the impact of climate change on the fire potential in the Alps in the past and in future scenarios. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, which successfully distinguishes among recorded fire/no fire events, is applied to projections of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. We compare two different techniques: 1) a single model run of the COSMO-CLM RCM at 18 km resolution, and 2) a combination of 25-km resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project, combined with the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique and a new probabilistic Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing. The single-model RCM allows for a greater coherence among the input parameters, while the Multimodel techniques permit to reduce the model biases and to downscale to a higher resolution where long term records of observations are available. The projected changes with the Multimodel in the scenario give an estimation of increasing wildfire potential in the mid XXI century. In particular the frequency of severe wildfire potential days is shown to increase dramatically. The single (independent) COSMO model gives a weaker signal and in some regions of the study area the predicted changes are opposite to the ones by the Multimodel. This is mainly due to increasing precipitation amounts simulated especially in the northern parts of the Alps. However, there are also some individual models included in the Multimodel ensemble that show a similar signal. This confirms the ambiguity of any impact study based on a single climate model due to the uncertainty of the projections of the climate models. 相似文献