Machine learning classifiers for attributing tephra to source volcanoes: an evaluation of methods for Alaska tephras     

Matthew S. M. Bolton  Britta J. L. Jensen  Kristi Wallace  Nore Praet  David Fortin  Darrell Kaufman  Marc De Batist 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(1-2):81-92

Glass composition-based correlations of volcanic ash (tephra) traditionally rely on extensive manual plotting. Many previous statistical methods for testing correlations are limited by using geochemical means, masking diagnostic variability. We suggest that machine learning classifiers can expedite correlation, quickly narrowing the list of likely candidates using well-trained models. Eruptives from Alaska's Aleutian Arc-Alaska Peninsula and Wrangell volcanic field were used as a test environment for 11 supervised classification algorithms, trained on nearly 2000 electron probe microanalysis measurements of glass major oxides, representing 10 volcanic sources. Artificial neural networks and random forests were consistently among the top-performing learners (accuracy and kappa > 0.96). Their combination as an average ensemble effectively improves their performance. Using this combined model on tephras from Eklutna Lake, south-central Alaska, showed that predictions match traditional methods and can speed correlation. Although classifiers are useful tools, they should aid expert analysis, not replace it. The Eklutna Lake tephras are mostly from Redoubt Volcano. Besides tephras from known Holocene-active sources, Holocene tephra geochemically consistent with Pleistocene Emmons Lake Volcanic Center (Dawson tephra), but from a yet unknown source, is evident. These tephras are mostly anchored by a highly resolved varved chronology and represent new important regional stratigraphic markers.  相似文献   

Air–Sea \mathrm{CO}_{2} Gas Transfer Velocity in a Shallow Estuary     

Eva Thorborg Mørk  Lise Lotte Sørensen  Bjarne Jensen  Mikael K. Sejr 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,151(1):119-138

The air–sea transfer velocity of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}\, (k_{\mathrm{CO}_{2}})$ was investigated in a shallow estuary in March to July 2012, using eddy-covariance measurements of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes and measured air–sea $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ partial-pressure differences. A data evaluation method that eliminates data by nine rejection criteria in order to heighten parametrization certainty is proposed. We tested the data evaluation method by comparing two datasets: one derived using quality criteria related solely to the eddy-covariance method, and the other derived using quality criteria based on both eddy-covariance and cospectral peak methods. The best parametrization of transfer velocity normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 $(k_{600})$ was determined to be: $k_{600} = 0.3\,{U_{10}}^{2.5}$ where $U_{10}$ is the wind speed in m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at 10 m; $k_{600}$ is based on $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes calculated by the eddy-covariance method and including the cospectral peak method criteria. At low wind speeds, the transfer velocity in the shallow water estuary was lower than in other coastal waters, possibly a symptom of low tidal amplitude leading to low intensity water turbulence. High transfer velocities were recorded above wind speeds of 5 m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ , believed to be caused by early-breaking waves and the large fetch (6.5 km) of the estuary. These findings indicate that turbulence in both air and water influences the transfer velocity.  相似文献   

Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey     

Stige LC  Ottersen G  Hjermann DØ  Dalpadado P  Jensen LK  Stenseth NC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(2):395-398

Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.  相似文献   

Determining sea level change in the German Bight     

Frauke Albrecht  Thomas Wahl  Jürgen Jensen  Ralf Weisse 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(12):2037-2050

Regional mean sea level changes in the German Bight are considered. Index time series derived from 15 tide gauge records are analysed. Two different methods for constructing the index time series are used. The first method uses arithmetic means based on all available data for each time step. The second method uses empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods produce rather similar results for the time period 1924–2008. For this period, we estimate that regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case. Before 1924, only data from a few tide gauges are available with the longest record in Cuxhaven ranging back till 1843. Data from these tide gauges, in particular from Cuxhaven, thus receive increasingly more weight when earlier years are considered. It is therefore analysed to what extent data from Cuxhaven are representative for the regional sea level changes in the German Bight. While this cannot be clarified before 1924, it is found that this is not the case from 1924 onwards when changes in Cuxhaven can be compared to that derived from a larger data set. Furthermore, decadal variability was found to be substantial with relatively high values towards the end of the analysis period. However, these values are not unusual when compared to earlier periods.  相似文献   

Eurekadumpite, (Cu,Zn)₁₆(TeO₃)₂(AsO₄)₃Cl(OH)₁₈·7H₂O, a new supergene mineral species     

I. V. Pekov  N. V. Chukanov  A. E. Zadov  A. C. Roberts  M. C. Jensen  N. V. Zubkova  A. J. Nikischer 《Geology of Ore Deposits》2011,53(7):575-582

A new mineral eurekadumpite found at the Centennial Eureka Mine in the Tintic district of Juab County in Utah in the United States occurs in the oxidation zone along with quartz, macalpineite, malachite, Zn-bearing olivenite, goethite, and Mn oxides. Eurekadumpite forms spherulites or rosettes up to 1 mm in size and their clusters and crusts up to 1.5 cm² in cavities. Its individuals are divergent and extremely thin (up to 0.5 mm across and less than 1 μm thick) hexagonal or roundish leaflets. The mineral is deep blue-green or turquoise-colored. Its streaks are light turquoise-colored. Its luster is satiny in aggregates and pearly on individual flakes. Its cleavage is (010) perfect and micalike. Its flakes are flexible but inelastic. Its Mohs hardness is 2.5–3.0, and D(meas) = 3.76(2) and D(calc) = 3.826 g/cm³. The mineral is optically biaxial negative, and α = 1.69(1), β ∼ γ = 1.775(5), and 2V _meas = 10(5)°. Its pleochroism is strong: Y = Z = deep blue-green, and X = light turquoise-colored. Its orientation is X = b. The wavenumbers of the bands in the IR spectrum (cm⁻¹; the strong lines are underlined, and w denotes the weak bands) are 3400, 2990, 1980w, 1628, 1373w, 1077, 1010, 860, 825, 803, 721w, 668, 622, 528, 461. The IR spectrum shows the occurrence of the tellurite (Te⁴⁺,O₃)²⁻ and arsenate (As⁵⁺,O₄)³⁻ anionic groups and H₂O molecules; Cu and Zn cations are combined with OH⁻ groups. The chemical composition of eurekadumpite is as follows (wt %, average of 14 electron-microprobe analyses; H₂O determined using the Alimarin method): 0.04 FeO, 36.07 CuO, 20.92 ZnO, 14.02 TeO₂, 14.97 As₂O₅, 1.45 Cl, 13.1 H₂O, O = Cl₂ −0.33, total 100.24. The empirical formula based on 2 Te atoms is (Cu_10.32Zn_5.85Fe_0.01)_Σ16.18(TeO₃)₂(AsO₄)_2.97[Cl_0.93(OH)_0.07]_Σ1(OH)_18.45 · 7.29H₂O. The idealized formula is (Cu,Zn)₁₆(TeO₃)₂(AsO₄)₃Cl(OH)₁₈ · 7H₂O. Eurekadumpite is monoclinic (pseudohexagonal), and the most probable space groups are P2/m, P2, or Pm. The unit-cell parameters refined from the powder X-ray data are as follows: a = 8.28(3), b = 18.97(2), c = 7.38(2) ?, β = 121.3(6)°, V = 990(6) ?³, and Z = 1. The strongest reflections of the X-ray powder pattern (d, ? (I) [hkl]) are as follows: 18.92(100) [010], 9.45(19) [020], 4.111(13) [[`2]\bar 2 01], 3.777(24) [050, [`2]\bar 2 21, 041], 2.692(15) [[`3]\bar 3 11, 151, [`3]\bar 3 02], 2.524(41)[170, [`2]\bar 2 52, [`1]\bar 1 71], 1.558(22) [[`4]\bar 4 82, [`3]\bar 3 .10.1, 024]. The name of the mineral means, firstly, that it was found in specimens from dumps of the Centennial Eureka Mine. In addition, it could mean found in a dump (the Greek word eureka means I have found it). There is an allusion to the great role that dumps of abandoned mines have played in the discovery of new minerals. Type specimens are deposited at the Fersman Mineralogical Museum of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, and at the American Museum of Natural History in New York.  相似文献   

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies     

Henning Tarp Jensen  Marcus R. Keogh-Brown  Richard D. Smith  Zaid Chalabi  Alan D. Dangour  Mike Davies  Phil Edwards  Tara Garnett  Moshe Givoni  Ulla Griffiths  Ian Hamilton  James Jarrett  Ian Roberts  Paul Wilkinson  James Woodcock  Andy Haines 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):223-237

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).  相似文献   

A synoptic parameterization of the drag coefficient     

Joan Vyverberg Jensen 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):2-9

Abstract

The problem areas affecting the evaluation of hail suppression experiments are reviewed. These include the hail sensors and networks, trop damage data, statistical analysis, the hail‐suppression hypothesis, and the technology of cloud seeding. General directions of needed research are proposed.  相似文献   

On the role of domain size and resolution in the simulations with the HIRHAM region climate model     

Morten A. D. Larsen  Peter Thejll  Jens H. Christensen  Jens C. Refsgaard  Karsten H. Jensen 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2903-2918

We investigate the simulated temperature and precipitation of the HIRHAM regional climate model using systematic variations in domain size, resolution and detailed location in a total of eight simulations. HIRHAM was forced by ERA-Interim boundary data and the simulations focused on higher resolutions in the range of 5.5–12 km. HIRHAM outputs of seasonal precipitation and temperature were assessed by calculating distributed model errors against a higher resolution data set covering Denmark and a 0.25° resolution data set covering Europe. Furthermore the simulations were statistically tested against the Danish data set using bootstrap statistics. The results from the distributed validation of precipitation showed lower errors for the winter (DJF) season compared to the spring (MAM), fall (SON) and, in particular, summer (JJA) seasons for both validation data sets. For temperature, the pattern was in the opposite direction, with the lowest errors occurring for the JJA season. These seasonal patterns between precipitation and temperature are seen in the bootstrap analysis. It also showed that using a 4,000 × 2,800 km simulation with an 11 km resolution produced the highest significance levels. Also, the temperature errors were more highly significant than precipitation. In similarly sized domains, 12 of 16 combinations of variables, observation validation data and seasons showed better results for the highest resolution domain, but generally the most significant improvements were seen when varying the domain size.  相似文献   

Alfvén waves and turbulence in quiescent prominences     

Eberhart Jensen 《Solar physics》1983,89(2):275-285

In the dynamical model of quiescent prominences presented in this paper, it is assumed that the ever-changing velocity field and brightness of the fine structure is due to MHD turbulence driven by an Alfvén-wave flux from below. It is shown that these waves become highly non-linear and are dissipated over relatively short scales in prominence matter. For magnetic field strengths lower than those observed in quiescent prominences, no closed arch structure can exist with the physical parameters observed. For higher field strengths the conditions for the creation of turbulence are not fulfilled. The momentum gained by prominence matter in the dissipation process, is shown to be of the right order of magnitude to provide the supporting force against gravity. ‘Edge’ effects find a simple explanation within the framework of this hypothesis. In the upper regions of a prominence one result of the dissipation may be the formation of open magnetic configurations, in keeping with the presence of streamers connected with quiescent prominences. Observational tests are proposed and discussed.  相似文献   

Hydromorphological and biological factors influencing sediment and phosphorus loss via bank erosion in small lowland rural streams in Denmark     

A. Laubel  B. Kronvang  A. B. Hald  C. Jensen 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3443-3463

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