Coping with climate variability and climate change in La Ceiba,Honduras     

Joel B. Smith  Kenneth M. Strzepek  Julio Cardini  Mario Castaneda  Julie Holland  Carlos Quiroz  Tom M. L. Wigley  Jose Herrero  Peter Hearne  John Furlow 《Climatic change》2011,108(3):457-470

La Ceiba, Honduras, a city of about 200,000 people, lies along the Caribbean Sea, nestled against a mountain range and the Rio Cangrejal. The city faces three flooding risks: routine flooding of city streets due to the lack of a stormwater drainage system; occasional major flooding of the Rio Cangrejal, which flows through the city; and flooding from heavy rainfall events and storm surges associated with tropical cyclones. In this study, we applied a method developed for the U.S. Agency for International Development and then worked with stakeholders in La Ceiba to understand climate change risks and evaluate adaptation alternatives. We estimated the impacts of climate change on the current flooding risks and on efforts to mitigate the flooding problems. The climate change scenarios, which addressed sea level rise and flooding, were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of sea level rise (Houghton et al. 2001) and published literature linking changes in temperature to more intense precipitation (Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, 2003) and hurricanes (Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004). Using information from Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, (2003) and Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004, we scaled intense precipitation and hurricane wind speed based on projected temperature increases. We estimated the volume of precipitation in intense events to increase by 2 to 4% in 2025 and by 6 to 14% by 2050. A 13% increase in intense precipitation, the high scenario for 2050, could increase peak 5-year flood flows by about 60%. Building an enhanced urban drainage system that could cope with the estimated increased flooding would cost one-third more than building a system to handle current climate conditions, but would avoid costlier reconstruction in the future. The flow of the Rio Cangrejal would increase by one-third from more intense hurricanes. The costs of raising levees to protect the population from increased risks from climate change would be about $1 million. The coast west of downtown La Ceiba is the most vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. It is relatively undeveloped, but is projected to have rapid development. Setbacks on coastal construction in that area may limit risks. The downtown coastline is also at risk and may need to be protected with groins and sand pumping. Stakeholders in La Ceiba concluded that addressing problems of urban drainage should be a top priority. They emphasized improved management of the Rio Cangrejal watershed and improved storm warnings to cope with risks from extreme precipitation and cyclones. Adoption of risk management principles and effective land use management could also help reduce risks from current climate and climate change.  相似文献   

Variable effects of forest canopies on snow processes in a valley of the central Spanish Pyrenees     

Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado  Juan I. López-Moreno  Enrique Morán-Tejeda  Esteban Alonso-González  Francisco M. Navarro-Serrano  Ibai Rico  J. Julio Camarero 《水文研究》2020,34(10):2247-2262

Snowpacks and forests have complex interactions throughout the large range of altitudes where they co-occur. However, there are no reliable data on the spatial and temporal interactions of forests with snowpacks, such as those that occur in nearby areas that have different environmental conditions and those that occur during different snow seasons. This study monitored the interactions of forests with snowpacks in four forest stands in a single valley of the central Spanish Pyrenees during three consecutive snow seasons (2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018). Daily snow depth data from time-lapse cameras were compared with snow data from field surveys that were performed every 10–15 days. These data thus provided information on the spatial and temporal changes of snow–water equivalent (SWE). The results indicated that forest had the same general effects on snowpack in each forest stand and during each snow season. On average, forest cover reduced the duration of snowpack by 17 days, reduced the cumulative SWE of the snowpack by about 60% and increased the spatial heterogeneity of snowpack by 190%. Overall, forest cover reduced SWE total accumulation by 40% and the rate of SWE accumulation by 25%. The forest-mediated reduction of the accumulation rate, in combination with the occasional forest-mediated enhancement of melting rate, explained the reduced duration of snowpacks beneath forest canopies. However, the magnitude and timing of certain forest effects on snowpack had significant spatial and temporal variations. This variability must be considered when selecting the location of an experimental site in a mountainous area, because the study site should be representative of surrounding areas. The same considerations apply when selecting a time period for study.  相似文献   

Deformation structures associated with the Tazo landslide (La Gomera, Canary Islands)     

Ramón Casillas  Carlos Fernández  Juan Ramón Colmenero  Julio de la Nuez  Encarnación García-Navarro  M. Candelaria Martín 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(8):945-960

Deformation structures below the basal plane of gravitational slides can provide useful information about the state of stress undergone by rocks prior to the sliding process and about the triggering forces acting at each particular sliding event. In the present work we conducted a structural analysis of the rocks below the surface of the gravitational slide of Tazo (La Gomera, Canary Islands) and determined the epigenetic processes involved in the filling of the amphitheatre. We also inferred the possible triggering phenomena related to the Tazo landslide. The rocks located below the surface of the gravitational slide of Tazo -i.e., the basaltic lava flows, sills and dikes of the Lower Old Edifice and the submarine volcanic rocks, gabbros, pyroxenites and dikes of the Basal Complex of La Gomera- are strongly deformed close to this sliding surface. The lava flows and dikes of the Lower Old Edifice are folded, with fault breccias and gouges, and locally foliated, defining the sliding surface. The dikes of the Basal Complex are also folded, and the gabbros and pyroxenites are affected by a large number of small faults. In the Basal Complex, the sliding surface is defined by a foliated granular gouge. In the damage zone, the Basal Complex rocks show an incipient fracture cleavage. The sliding amphitheatre has been filled by the debris avalanche or cohesive debris flow generated within the slide, as well as by later debris flows, hyperconcentrated flows, sheet flows, and by interspersed lava flows from the Upper Old Edifice. We suggest here that the collapse of the north-western flank of the Lower Old Edifice at Tazo could in part have been triggered by continuous magma injection, associated with the emplacement of dikes in a rift zone with an ENE-WSW direction, enhanced by the mechanical weakness of the Basal Complex unit, which was affected by hydrothermal metamorphism under greenschist facies conditions and by the displacement along the Montaña de Alcalá and Guillama normal faults, which are deeply entrenched in the altered rocks of the Basal Complex.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the possibility for phytoplankton monitoring frequency reduction in the coastal waters of the Community of Valencia, in the scope of the Water Framework Directive     

Abramic A  Del Rio JG  Martínez-Alzamora N  Ferrer J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(8):1637-1647

The Water Framework Directive, under the European Legislation, requires that all European waters, should reach a good ecological status by 2015. To achieve this goal, a phytoplankton monitoring network with monthly water samplings was established to evaluate the ecological quality, in the coastal waters of the Community of Valencia, and the collected data have allowed us to study the efficiency of the monthly campaigns of the monitoring network. With the results obtained in this research, we have designed a new monitoring strategy for the coastal waters of Valencia that for certain water bodies can mean lower sampling frequency. The new monitoring policy provides results as reliable as the previous strategy and allows a precise ecological classification of water bodies at a lower cost. The methodologies we have developed can be used in other monitoring networks and are not limited by geographic location or by the type of water body.  相似文献   

The redshift dependence of the structure of massive Λ cold dark matter haloes     

Liang Gao  Julio F. Navarro †  Shaun Cole  Carlos S. Frenk  Simon D. M. White  Volker Springel  Adrian Jenkins  Angelo F. Neto 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(2):536-544

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Cometary masses derived from non-gravitational forces     

Andrea Sosa  Julio A. Fernández 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(1):192-214

We compute masses and densities for 10 periodic comets with known sizes: 1P/Halley, 2P/Encke, 6P/d'Arrest, 9P/Tempel 1, 10P/Tempel 2, 19P/Borrelly, 22P/Kopff, 46P/Wirtanen, 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko and 81P/Wild 2. The method follows the one developed by Rickman and colleagues, which is based on the gas production curve and on the change in the orbital period due to the non-gravitational force. The gas production curve is inferred from the visual light curve. We found that the computed masses cover more than three orders of magnitude:  ≃(0.3–400) × 10¹²  kg. The computed densities are in all cases very low (≲0.8 g cm⁻³), with an average value of 0.4 g cm⁻³, in agreement with previous results and models of the cometary nucleus depicting it as a very porous object. The computed comet densities turn out to be the lowest among the different populations of Solar system minor bodies, in particular as compared to those of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We conclude that the model applied in this paper, in spite of its simplicity (as compared to more sophisticated thermophysical models applied to very few comets), is useful for a statistical approach to the mean density of the cometary nuclei. However, we cannot assess from this simple model if there is a real dispersion among the bulk densities of comets that could tell us about differences in physical structure (porosity) and/or chemical composition.  相似文献   

IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the Southwestern US: the importance of future ENSO projections     

Francina Dominguez  Julio Cañon  Juan Valdes 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):499-514

Future climate trends for the Southwestern US, based on the climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, project a more arid climate in the region during the 21st century. However, future climate variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—an important driver for winter climate variability in the region—have not been addressed. In this work we evaluate future winter ENSO projections derived from two selected IPCC models, and their effect on Southwestern US climate. We first evaluate the ability of the IPCC coupled models to represent the climate of the Southwest, selecting the two models that best capture seasonal precipitation and temperature over the region and realistically represent ENSO variability (Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5 and the UK Met Office HadCM3). Our work shows that the projected future aridity of the region will be dramatically amplified during La Niña conditions, as anomalies over a drier mean state, and will be characterized by higher temperatures (~0.5°C) and lower precipitation (~3 mm/mnt) than the projected trends. These results have important implications for water managers in the Southwest who must prepare for more intense winter aridity associated with future ENSO conditions.  相似文献   

An analysis and interpretation of the current data collected in the strait of Juan de Fuca in 1973     

Gabriel Godin  Julio Candela  René de la Paz‐Vela 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3):273-302

Abstract

We evaluate a set of current measurements done in a section of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The flow is of estuarine character, the upper layer flow usually being directed seaward. The RMS value of steady current exceeds its mean value appreciably in the upper layer; it also exceeds the mean near the bottom. The near‐surface currents do change their direction on occasions and can run landward for over five consecutive days, especially in the southern part of the channel. The lower layer flow (landward) and the upper layer flow (seaward) varied in magnitude from 90 to 160 thousand m³/sec, and their fluctuations were in phase; their difference, the net flow, is of the order of 5% to 10% of these flows and could not be calculated with any confidence. Tidal motion is barotropic in the section, with some deformation in the vertical caused by bottom friction and internal stresses. The M₂ tide in the system Juan de Fuca‐Georgia Strait can be represented by a standing Kelvin wave influenced by friction. The K₁ tide can also be represented by a standing Kelvin wave if some leakage is allowed in the northern end of Georgia Strait. Topographic effects mask the Coriolis influence on the intensity of tidal currents.  相似文献   

Advancing Global Marine Biogeography Research with Open‐source GIS Software and Cloud Computing     

Ei Fujioka  Edward Vanden Berghe  Ben Donnelly  Julio Castillo  Jesse Cleary  Chris Holmes  Sean McKnight  Patrick Halpin 《Transactions in GIS》2012,16(2):143-160

Across many scientific domains, the ability to aggregate disparate datasets enables more meaningful global analyses. Within marine biology, the Census of Marine Life served as the catalyst for such a global data aggregation effort. Under the Census framework, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System was established to coordinate an unprecedented aggregation of global marine biogeography data. The OBIS data system now contains 31.3 million observations, freely accessible through a geospatial portal. The challenges of storing, querying, disseminating, and mapping a global data collection of this complexity and magnitude are significant. In the face of declining performance and expanding feature requests, a redevelopment of the OBIS data system was undertaken. Following an Open Source philosophy, the OBIS technology stack was rebuilt using PostgreSQL, PostGIS, GeoServer and OpenLayers. This approach has markedly improved the performance and online user experience while maintaining a standards‐compliant and interoperable framework. Due to the distributed nature of the project and increasing needs for storage, scalability and deployment flexibility, the entire hardware and software stack was built on a Cloud Computing environment. The flexibility of the platform, combined with the power of the application stack, enabled rapid re‐development of the OBIS infrastructure, and ensured complete standards‐compliance.  相似文献   

Heterozoan carbonate deposition on a steep basement escarpment (Late Miocene,Almería,south‐east Spain)          下载免费PDF全文

Fernando Sola  Ángel Puga‐Bernabéu  Julio Aguirre  Juan C. Braga 《Sedimentology》2017,64(4):1107-1131

Heterozoan temperate‐water carbonates mixed with varying amounts of terrigenous grains and muddy matrix (Azagador limestone) accumulated on and at the toe of an inherited escarpment during the late Tortonian–early Messinian (late Miocene) at the western margin of the Almería–Níjar Basin in south‐east Spain. The escarpment was the eastern end of an uplifting antiform created by compressive folding of Triassic rocks of the Betic basement. Channelized coralline‐algal/bryozoan rudstone to coarse‐grained packstone, together with matrix‐supported conglomerate, are the dominant lithofacies in the higher outcrops, comprising the deposits on the slope. These sediments mainly fill small canyon‐shaped, half‐graben depressions formed by normal faults active before, during and after carbonate sedimentation. Roughly bedded and roughly laminated coralline‐algal/bryozoan rudstone to coarse‐grained packstone are the main lithofacies forming an apron of four small (kilometre‐scale) lobes at the toe of the south‐eastern side of the escarpment (Almería area). Channelized and roughly bedded coralline‐algal/bryozoan rudstone to coarse‐grained packstone, conglomerates, packstone and sandy silt accumulated in a small channel‐lobe system at the toe of the north‐eastern side of the escarpment (Las Balsas area). Carbonate particles and terrigenous grains were sourced from shallow‐water settings and displaced downslope by sediment density flows that preferentially followed the canyon‐shaped depressions. Roughly laminated rudstone to packstone formed by grain flows on the initially very steep slope, whereas the rest of the carbonate lithofacies were deposited by high‐density turbidite currents. The steep escarpment and related break‐in‐slope at the toe favoured hydraulic jumps and the subsequent deposition of coarse‐grained, low‐transport efficiency skeletal‐dominated sediment in the apron lobes. Accelerated uplift of the basement caused a relative sea‐level fall resulting in the formation of outer‐ramp carbonates on the apron lobes, which were in turn overlain by lower Messinian coral reefs. The Almería example is the first known ‘base of slope’ apron within temperate‐water carbonate systems.  相似文献