Impact of climate change on diffuse pollutant fluxes at the watershed scale          下载免费PDF全文

Mehdi Ahmadi  Rosemary Records  Mazdak Arabi 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1962-1972

This study aims to assess watershed‐scale impacts of changing climate on sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticide (atrazine) fluxes over the 21st century at the watershed scale. In particular, changes in dissolved and particulate forms of water quality constituents in response to climate change are investigated. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and evaluated in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States to simulate hydrologic and water quality processes on a daily basis over the 2015–2099 time horizon. The model was then driven with 112 distinct statistically downscaled climate projections representing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Projected hydrologic and water quality responses were categorized according to the three IPCC SRES emission scenarios for summarizing and synthesizing results over early‐century (2015–2034), mid‐century (2045–2064) and late‐century (2080–2099) assessment. Results revealed clear warming trends in the study area, whereas small increases in precipitation were predicted. Streamflow, sediment and total nutrient loads did not differ noticeably between assessment periods. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased significantly from early‐century to late‐century periods. With the exception of total atrazine in the mid‐century period, predicted pollutant loads for a given assessment period did not differ between emission pathways for a given assessment period. Changes in pollutant fluxes showed pronounced monthly variability. The projected increase in readily available forms of nutrients has important implications for the ecological health of water systems and management of drinking water supplies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the integral inversion of satellite-to-satellite velocity differences for local gravity field recovery: a theoretical study     

Mehdi?EshaghEmail author  Michal??prlák 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2016,124(2):127-144

The gravity field can be recovered locally from the satellite-to-satellite velocity differences (VDs) between twin-satellites moving in the same orbit. To do so, three different integral formulae are derived in this paper to recover geoid height, radial component of gravity anomaly and gravity disturbance at sea level. Their kernel functions contain the product of two Legendre polynomials with different arguments. Such kernels are relatively complicated and it may be impossible to find their closed-forms. However, we could find the one related to recovering the geoid height from the VD data. The use of spectral forms of the kernels is possible and one does not have to generate them to very high degrees. The kernel functions are well-behaving meaning that they reduce the contribution of far-zone data and for example a cap margin of \(7^{\circ }\) is enough for recovering gravity anomalies. This means that the inversion area should be larger by \(7^{\circ }\) from all directions than the desired area to reduce the effect of spatial truncation error of the integral formula. Numerical studies using simulated data over Fennoscandia showed that when the distance between the twin-satellites is small, higher frequencies of the anomalies can be recovered from the VD data. In the ideal case of having short distance between the satellites flying at 250 km level, recovering radial component of gravity anomaly with an accuracy of 7 mGal is possible over Fennoscandia, if the VD data is contaminated only with the spatial truncation error, which is an ideal assumption. However, the problem is that the power of VD signal is very low when the satellites are close and it is very difficult to recognise the signal amongst the noise of the VD data. We also show that for a successful determination of gravity anomalies at sea level from an altitude of 250 km mean VDs with better accuracy than 0.01 mm/s are required. When coloured noise at this level is used for the VDs at 250 km with separation of 300 km, the accuracy of recovery will be about 11 mGal over Fennoscandia. In the case of using the real velocities of the satellites, the main problems are downward/upward continuation of the VDs on the mean orbital sphere and taking the azimuthal integration of them.  相似文献   

An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes by considering the precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity parameters   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Mohammad Reza Kousari  Mohammad Reza Ekhtesasi  Mehdi Tazeh  Mohammad Ali Saremi Naeini  Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):321-335

The present study tends to describe the survey of climatic changes in the case of the eastern and central areas of Iran and, to some extent, the northern parts. The monthly and yearly change trends in the minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the precipitation were surveyed for 26 synoptic stations in Iran during a 55-year period. The study was carried out by using the ??-Kendall test. The results showed the same temperature changes for the centrally located stations as the eastern and northern ones. Most of the stations in Zagros showed no significant temperature changes. A significant decrease in the precipitation was seen in summer in different stations. Most of the eastern and centrally located stations showed a decrease in relative humidity trend, while this condition was not recorded in Zagros and northern part of Iran. The present results also showed that the upward trend of minimum air temperature had an effect in increasing the mean air temperature in the stations with temperature ascending trend. This effect of minimum temperature was significantly more than that of the maximum temperature, which could be the result of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases and the reflection of received thermal energies, from land through the night. This increase in the temperature and a decrease in relative humidity would cause an increase in the evaporation of the received precipitation.  相似文献   

Combining suspended sediment monitoring and fingerprinting to determine the spatial origin of fine sediment in a mountainous river catchment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Olivier Evrard  Oldrich Navratil  Sophie Ayrault  Mehdi Ahmadi  Julien Némery  Cédric Legout  Irène Lefèvre  Alain Poirel  Philippe Bonté  Michel Esteves 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(8):1072-1089

An excess of fine sediment (grain size <2 mm) supply to rivers leads to reservoir siltation, water contamination and operational problems for hydroelectric power plants in many catchments of the world, such as in the French Alps. These problems are exacerbated in mountainous environments characterized by large sediment exports during very short periods. This study combined river flow records, sediment geochemistry and associated radionuclide concentrations as input properties to a Monte Carlo mixing model to quantify the contribution of different geologic sources to river sediment. Overall, between 2007 and 2009, erosion rates reached 249 ± 75 t km^?2 yr^?1 at the outlet of the Bléone catchment, but this mean value masked important spatial variations of erosion intensity within the catchment (85–5000 t km^?2 yr^?1). Quantifying the contribution of different potential sources to river sediment required the application of sediment fingerprinting using a Monte Carlo mixing model. This model allowed the specific contributions of different geological sub‐types (i.e. black marls, marly limestones, conglomerates and Quaternary deposits) to be determined. Even though they generate locally very high erosion rates, black marls supplied only a minor fraction (5–20%) of the fine sediment collected on the riverbed in the vicinity of the 907 km² catchment outlet. The bulk of sediment was provided by Quaternary deposits (21–66%), conglomerates (3–44%) and limestones (9–27%). Even though bioengineering works conducted currently to stabilize gullies in black marl terrains are undoubtedly useful to limit sediment supply to the Bléone river, erosion generated by other substrate sources dominated between 2007 and 2009 in this catchment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Hossein Bari Abarghouei  Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch  Mohammad Taghi Dastorani  Mohammad Reza Kousari  Mehdi Safari Zarch 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):851-863

Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, drought monitoring has become a point of concern for most of the researchers. In the present study, the changes and trend of drought was surveyed, under the current global climate changes, by non parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test for 42 synoptic stations at different places of Iran. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to recognize the drought condition at different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months’ time series) for analyzing the drought trend in the recent 30 years. The obtained results have indicated a significant negative trend of drought in many parts of Iran, especially the South-East, West and South-West regions of the country. According to the results, although some parts of Iran such as North (around the Caspian Sea) and Northeast show no significant trend but in other parts of country, the severity of drought has increased during the last 30 years.  相似文献   

Identification of hazardous waste landfill site: a case study from Zanjan province, Iran   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mashalah Khamehchiyan  Mohammad Reza Nikoudel  Mehdi Boroumandi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(7):1763-1776

The study of landfill sites is one of the most important studies in landfill engineering, and the landfill site selection involves combination of engineering, science, and politics. This paper describes a comprehensive hazardous waste landfill site selection methodology with the combined utilization of geographic information system and multiple criteria analysis methods, as applied to the Zanjan province in Iran. The six main data categories that were used are geological/engineering geological, geomorphological, hydrological/hydrogeological, climatological, pedological, and social/economical criteria, which included 31 input layers in total. A suitability map for hazardous waste landfilling was prepared for study area with five classes from most suitable to completely unsuitable. Finally, out of the three sites, one site was selected which was chosen by the local authorities. Our work offers a comprehensive methodology and provides essential support for decision-makers in the assessment of hazardous waste management problems in Zanjan province in I.R. Iran and other developing cities in other countries.  相似文献   

Ground water quality classification by decision tree method in Ardebil region,Iran     

S. Mehdi Saghebian  M. Taghi Sattari  Rasoul Mirabbasi  Mahesh Pal 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(11):4767-4777

A decision tree-based approach is proposed to predict ground water quality based on the United States Salinity Laboratory (USSL) diagram using the data from aquifers in agricultural lands of Ardebil province, northwest of Iran. Several combinations of hydro chemical parameters of groundwater and monthly precipitation with different lag time were considered to find an accurate and economical alternative for groundwater quality classification. The performance evaluation was based on the number of correctly classified instances (CCI) and kappa statistics. The results suggested the suitability of decision tree-based classification approach for the used data sets. The overall average of CCI and kappa statistic for the prediction of groundwater quality classes based on the USSL diagram was 0.88 and 0.83 %, respectively. Principal component analysis (PCA) was also used to determine the important parameters for groundwater quality classification. The results showed that groundwater quality classification by decision tree is more precise and efficient in comparison with PCA. The best alternative could evaluate groundwater quality class with only two parameters: electrical conductivity and cumulative precipitation of 11 months earlier. The developed model is able to predict water quality class by only two variables and this lead to a reduction in the number of variables analyzed on a routine basis, resulting in a significant reduction in laboratory costs and latency times between the sampling moment and the outcome of the laboratory analyses.  相似文献   

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer     

Muhammad Nauman Malik  Mehdi Murtuza  Iqbal Asif  Bakar Muhammad Saifullah Abu  Brahim Aissa  Dk Nur Afiqah Jalwati Puteri  Amer Farhan Rafique 《地下水科学与工程》2014,7(4):373-382

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues, it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain. Therefore, the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative. Adaptive state estimator (ASE) is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique, thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters. The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and /or random switching of input and measurement biases. The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE, which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10% in 2-dimensional problems. Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios. Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor, Recursive Least Square Estimator (RLSE) due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes. ASE’s inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE, resulting from the complexity of algorithm, was also noticed. The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.  相似文献   

Redefining the watershed line and stream networks via digital resources and topographic map using GIS and remote sensing (case study: the Neka River’s watershed)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hassan Ahmadi  Arun Das  Mehdi Pourtaheri  Chooghi Bairam Komaki  Houshang Khairy 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):711-722

The accurate delineation of area plays a key role in the surveying of land change detection and the classification of land covers. In a hydrologic system, the watershed delineation and the detection of the boundaries among watershed is a basic method for performing spatial analyses. After recent advances in image processing and raster-based spatial analysis in geographic information systems, and being easily accessible data via various sources especially through remote sensing, the reliable determination of topographical boundaries possible is possible. Therefore, an integrated approach of data analysis and modeling can accomplish the task of delineation. The main aim in this research is to evaluate the delineation method of watershed boundary using four different digital elevation models (DEM) including advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM), digital topography, and topographic maps. In order to determine a true reference of boundary of watershed, sample data were also obtained by field survey and using global positioning system (GPS). The comparison reference points and the results of these data showed the average distance difference between reference boundary, and the result of ASTER data was 43 m. However, the average distance between GPS reference and the other data was high; the difference between the reference data and SRTM was 307 m, and for digital topographic map, it was 269 m. The average distance between topographic map and the GPS points differed 304 m as well. For the statistical analysis of comparison, the coordinates of 230 points were determined; the paired comparisons were also performed to measure the coefficient of determination, R ², as well as analysis of variance in SPSS software. As a result, the R ² values for the ASTER data with the digital topography and topographic map were 0.0157 and 0.171, respectively. The results showed that there were statistically significant differences in distances among the four means of the selected models. Therefore, considering other three methods, the ASTER DEM is the most suitable applicable data to delineate the borders of watersheds, especially in rugged terrains. In addition, the calculated flow directions of stream based on ASTER are close to natural tributaries as well as real positions of streams.  相似文献   

Estimating magnitudes of prehistoric earthquakes and seismic capability of fault from landslide data in Noor valley (central Alborz,Iran)     

Zeynab Asadi  Mehdi Zare 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):445-461

Detecting the paleoseismological specifications as well as seismic capability of faults has specific importance in estimating the earthquake hazard in any region. The geomorphic indices are used as indirect procedures in the mountainous area. They are appropriate and applicable methods in recognizing the specifications of active tectonics and evaluating fault seismicity in the mountainous areas. In this regard, giant landslides can be pointed out as proper indices. These landslides are usually related to tectonics and triggered by earthquakes in many cases. In this research, giant landslides existed in Noor valley (central Alborz) have been considered as geomorphological indices for recognizing the seismicity of the region and the seismic capability of its faults. There are four giant landslides in this region (Baladeh, Razan, Vakamar, and Iva) used for the mentioned purpose. No historical earthquake has been reported around Noor valley. However, the existence of giant and old landslides, related to earthquake, indicates the occurrence of numerous prehistoric earthquakes. In this research, three different age classes have been determined (Late Holocene, Early Holocene, and Late Pleistocene) for landslides. By the way, the possibility of identifying multiple earthquakes is provided in this area. The magnitudes of earthquakes are estimated as 7.7 ± 0.49 to 7.9 ± 0.49 based on their relations with maximum volume of displaced material. Regarding the distribution of landslides and other evidences, the eastern segment of Baladeh fault has probably been the main cause of the earthquakes.  相似文献