Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model     

Ishitsuka  Kazuya  Kobayashi  Yosuke  Watanabe  Norihiro  Yamaya  Yusuke  Bjarkason  Elvar  Suzuki  Anna  Mogi  Toru  Asanuma  Hiroshi  Kajiwara  Tatsuya  Sugimoto  Takeshi  Saito  Ryoichi 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(5):3289-3314

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

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Attenuation behaviour of tuffaceous sandstone and granite during microfracturing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Angelika-M. Wulff  Toshiyuki Hashida  Kimio Watanabe  & Hideaki Takahashi 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,139(2):395-409

Laboratory measurements of ultrasonic wave propagation in tuffaceous sandstone (Kimachi, Japan) and granite (Iidate, Japan) were performed during increasing fracturing of the samples. The fracturing was achieved by unconfined uniaxial compression up to and beyond the point of macrofracture of the specimen using a constant low strain rate. The observed variation of wave velocity (up to 40 per cent) due to the development of micro- and macrofractures in the rock is interpreted by rock models relating velocity changes to damage and crack density. The calculated density of the newly formed cracks reaches higher values for the sandstone than for the granite. Using the estimated crack densities, the attenuation behaviour is interpreted in terms of different attenuation mechanisms; that is, friction and scattering. Rayleigh scattering as described by the model of Hudson (1981 ) may explain the attenuation qualitatively if the largest plausible crack dimensions are assumed in modelling.  相似文献   

Preface     

Hiroyuki Tsubota  Masao Fukasawa  Koh Harada  Akira Nishimura  Masayuki Mac Takahashi  Shigeaki Aoki  Joji Ishizaka  Yutaka W. Watanabe 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(6):643-643

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Improved Method for Calculating Anthropogenic CO2 in the Upper Layer of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre along 175°E     

Yoshiyuki Takahashi  Eiji Matsumoto  Yutaka W. Watanabe 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(6):717-729

Seawater samples were collected in the North Pacific along 175°E during a cruise of the Northwest Pacific Carbon Cycle Study (NOPACCS) program in 1994. Many properties related to the carbonate system were analyzed. By using well-known ratios to correct for chemical changes in seawater, the CO₂ concentration at a given depth was back calculated to its initial concentration at the time when the water left the surface in winter. We estimated sea-surface CO₂ and titration alkalinity (TA) in present-day winter, from which we evaluated the degree of air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter was. Using a correction factor for air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter, we reconstructed sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times. The difference between the back-calculated initial CO₂ and sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times should correspond to anthropgenic CO₂ input. Although the mixing of different water masses may cause systematic error in the calculation, we found that the nonlinear effect induced by the mixing of different water masses was negligible in the upper layer of the North Pacific subtropical gyre along 175°E. The results of our improved method of assessing the distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in that region show marked differences from those obtained using the previous back-calculation method.  相似文献   

Remote effects of mixed layer development on ocean acidification in the subsurface layers of the North Pacific     

Michio Watanabe  Michio Kawamiya 《Journal of Oceanography》2017,73(6):771-784

Using the outputs of projections under the highest emission scenario of the representative concentration pathways performed by Earth system models (ESMs), we evaluate the ocean acidification rates of subsurface layers of the western North Pacific, where the strongest sink of atmospheric CO₂ is found in the mid-latitudes. The low potential vorticity water mass called the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) shows large dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration increase, and is advected southwestward, so that, in the sea to the south of Japan, DIC concentration increases and ocean acidification occurs faster than in adjacent regions. In the STMW of the Izu-Ogasawara region, the ocean acidification occurs with a pH decrease of ~0.004 year^?1 , a much higher rate than the previously estimated global average (0.0023 year^?1), so that the pH decreases by 0.3–0.4 during the twenty-first century and the saturation state of calcite (Ω_Ca) decreases from ~4.8 down to ~2.4. We find that the ESMs with a deeper mixed layer in the Kuroshio Extension region show a larger increase in DIC concentration within the Izu-Ogasawara region and within the Ryukyu Islands region. Comparing model results with the mixed layer depth obtained from the Argo dataset, we estimate that DIC concentration at a depth of ~200 m increases by 1.4–1.6 μmol kg^?1 year^?1 in the Izu-Ogasawara region and by 1.1–1.4 μmol kg^?1 year^?1 in the Ryukyu Islands region toward the end of this century.  相似文献   

Nutrients,light and phytoplankton production in the shallow,tropical coastal waters of Bandon Bay,Southern Thailand          下载免费PDF全文

Takashi Yoshikawa  Kosuke Tomizawa  Yuki Okamoto  Kazuya Watanabe  Jintana Salaenoi  Kenichi Hayashizaki  Hisashi Kurokura  Satoshi Ishikawa 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(6)

Phytoplankton primary production and its regulation by light and nutrient availability were investigated in the shallow, tropical coastal waters of Bandon Bay, Southern Thailand. The bay was meso‐eutrophicated and highly turbid, receiving river water discharge. Water column stratification was consistently weak during both rainy and dry seasons. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) was higher off the river mouth than in the other regions, suggesting that river water discharge was a main source of DIN. By contrast, dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) showed a significant negative correlation with total water depth, implying that regeneration around the sea floor was an important source of DIP. Surface DIN and DIP showed positive correlations with surface primary production (PP) and water column primary productivity (ΣPP*), respectively. The combined correlation and model analyses indicate that total water depth had an ambivalent influence on water column primary production (ΣPP); shallower water depth induced more active regeneration of nutrients, but it also caused higher turbidity and lower light availability as a result of enhanced resuspension of sediments. Furthermore, there was a vertical constraint for phytoplankton during the rainy season: total water depth tended to be shallower than euphotic zone depth. In conclusion, light limitation and vertical constraint owing to shallow water depth appear to be more important than nutrient limitation for water column primary production in Bandon Bay.  相似文献   

Implication of Apatite and Anhydrite for Formation of an Iron‐Oxide‐Apatite (IOA) Rare Earth Element Prospect,Benjamin River,Canada          下载免费PDF全文

Mihoko Hoshino  Yasushi Watanabe  Yoshiaki Kon 《Resource Geology》2017,67(4):361-383

The Benjamin River apatite prospect in northern New Brunswick, Canada, is hosted by the Late Silurian Dickie Brook plutonic complex, which is made up of intrusive units represented by monzogranite, diorite and gabbro. The IOA ores, composed mainly of apatite, augite, and magnetite at Benjamin River form pegmatitic pods and lenses in the host igneous rocks, the largest of which is 100 m long and 10–20 m wide in the diorite and gabbro units. In this study, 28 IOA ore and rock samples were collected from the diorite and gabbro units. Mineralogical observations show that the apatite–augite–magnetite ores are variable in the amounts of apatite, augite, and magnetite and are associated with minor amounts of epidote‐group minerals (allanite, REE‐rich epidote and epidte) and trace amounts of albite, titanite, ilmenite, titanomagnetite, pyrite, chlorite, calcite, and quartz. Apatite and augite grains contain small anhydrite inclusions. This suggests that the magma that crystallized apatite and augite had high oxygen fugacity. In back scattered electron (BSE) images, apatite grains in the ores have two zones of different appearance: (i) primary REE‐rich zone; and (ii) porous REE‐poor zone. The porous REE‐poor zones mainly appear in rims and/or inside of the apatite grains, in addition to the presence of apatite grains which totally consist of a porous REE‐poor apatite. This porous REE‐poor apatite is characterized by low REE (<0.84 wt%), Si (<0.28 wt%), and Cl (<0.17 wt%) contents. Epidote‐group minerals mainly occur in grain boundary between the porous REE‐poor apatite and augite. These indicate that REE leached from primary REE‐rich apatite crystallized as allanite and REE‐rich epidote. Magnetite in the ores often occurs as veinlets that cut apatite grains or as anhedral grains that replace a part of augite. These textures suggest that magnetite crystallized in the late stage. Pyrite veins occur in the ores, including a large amount of quartz and calcite veins. Pyrite veins mainly occur with quartz veins in augite. These textures indicate pyrite veins are the latest phase. Apatite–augite–magnetite ore, gabbro–quartz diorite and feldspar dike collected from the Benjamin River prospect contain dirty pure albite (Ab₉₈Or₂–Ab₁₀₀) under the microscope. The feldspar dikes mainly consist of dirty pure albite. Occurrences of the dirty pure albite suggest remarkable albitization (sodic alteration) of original plagioclase (An_25.3–An₆₀ in Pilote et al., 2012) associating with intrusion of monzogranite into gabbro and diorite. SO₄^2? bearing magma crystallized primary REE‐rich apatite, augite and anhydrite reacted with Fe in the sodic fluids, which result in oxidation of Fe²⁺ and release of S^2? into the sodic fluids. REE, Ca and Fe from primary REE‐rich apatite, augite and plagioclase altered by the sodic fluids were released into the fluids. Then Fe³⁺ in the sodic fluids precipitated as Fe oxides and epidote‐group minerals in apatite–augite–magnetite ores. Finally, residual S^2? in sodic fluids crystallized as latest pyrite veins. In conclusion, mineralization in Benjamin River IOA prospect are divided into four stages: (1) oxidized magmatic stage that crystallized apatite, augite and anhydrite; (2) sodic metasomatic stage accompanying alteration of magmatic minerals; (3) oxidized fluid stage (magnetite–epidote group minerals mineralization); and (4) reduced fluid stage (pyrite mineralization).  相似文献   

Successful application of multiscale methods in a real reservoir simulator environment     

K.-A. Lie  O. Møyner  J. R. Natvig  A. Kozlova  K. Bratvedt  S. Watanabe  Z. Li 《Computational Geosciences》2017,21(5-6):981-998

For the past 10 years or so, a number of so-called multiscale methods have been developed as an alternative approach to upscaling and to accelerate reservoir simulation. The key idea of all these methods is to construct a set of prolongation operators that map between unknowns associated with cells in a fine grid holding the petrophysical properties of the geological reservoir model and unknowns on a coarser grid used for dynamic simulation. The prolongation operators are computed numerically by solving localized flow problems, much in the same way as for flow-based upscaling methods, and can be used to construct a reduced coarse-scale system of flow equations that describe the macro-scale displacement driven by global forces. Unlike effective parameters, the multiscale basis functions have subscale resolution, which ensures that fine-scale heterogeneity is correctly accounted for in a systematic manner. Among all multiscale formulations discussed in the literature, the multiscale restriction-smoothed basis (MsRSB) method has proved to be particularly promising. This method has been implemented in a commercially available simulator and has three main advantages. First, the input grid and its coarse partition can have general polyhedral geometry and unstructured topology. Secondly, MsRSB is accurate and robust when used as an approximate solver and converges relatively fast when used as an iterative fine-scale solver. Finally, the method is formulated on top of a cell-centered, conservative, finite-volume method and is applicable to any flow model for which one can isolate a pressure equation. We discuss numerical challenges posed by contemporary geomodels and report a number of validation cases showing that the MsRSB method is an efficient, robust, and versatile method for simulating complex models of real reservoirs.  相似文献   

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish     

Teruhisa Komatsu  Masahiro Fukuda  Atsuko Mikami  Shizuha Mizuno  Attachai Kantachumpoo  Hideaki Tanoue  Michio Kawamiya 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.  相似文献   

Mapping vertical profile of discontinuous permafrost with ground penetrating radar at Nalaikh depression,Mongolia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Tonghua Wu  Qinxue Wang  Masataka Watanabe  Ji Chen  Dorjgotov Battogtokh 《Environmental Geology》2009,56(8):1577-1583

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has become an important geophysical tool which can provide a wealth of interpretive information about the vertical profile of discontinuous permafrost. A GPR investigation was conducted in October 2006 at the Nalaikh site at the southern boundary of the Siberian discontinuous permafrost region in Mongolia. GPR data were collected along four 100-m-long profiles to identify the location of the permafrost body, which included an in situ drilling borehole and analysis of temperature observations and soil water content measurements from boreholes. The GPR interpretation results indicated that the thickness of discontinuous permafrost at the study site was only 1.9–3.0 m and the permafrost is vulnerable to climate change. The soil temperature and soil water content data demonstrate the precision of GPR image interpretation. This case demonstrated that GPR is well suited for mapping the internal structure of discontinuous permafrost with relatively low soil water content.  相似文献