Observable consequences of planet formation models in systems with close-in terrestrial planets     

Sean N. Raymond †‡  Rory Barnes  Avi M. Mandell †‡ 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,384(2):663-674

To date, two planetary systems have been discovered with close-in, terrestrial-mass planets     . Many more such discoveries are anticipated in the coming years with radial velocity and transit searches. Here we investigate the different mechanisms that could form 'hot Earths' and their observable predictions. Models include: (1) in situ accretion; (2) formation at larger orbital distance followed by inward 'type 1' migration; (3) formation from material being 'shepherded' inward by a migrating gas giant planet; (4) formation from material being shepherded by moving secular resonances during dispersal of the protoplanetary disc; (5) tidal circularization of eccentric terrestrial planets with close-in perihelion distances and (6) photoevaporative mass-loss of a close-in giant planet. Models 1–4 have been validated in previous work. We show that tidal circularization can form hot Earths, but only for relatively massive planets     with very close-in perihelion distances (≲0.025 au), and even then the net inward movement in orbital distance is at most only 0.1–0.15 au. For planets of less than     , photoevaporation can remove the planet's envelope and leave behind the solid core on a Gyr time-scale, but only for planets inside 0.025–0.05 au. Using two quantities that are observable by current and upcoming missions, we show that these models each produce unique signatures, and can be observationally distinguished. These observables are the planetary system architecture (detectable with radial velocities, transits and transit timing) and the bulk composition of transiting close-in terrestrial planets (measured by transits via the planet's radius).  相似文献   

The formation of the Oort cloud in open cluster environments     

Nathan A. Kaib  Thomas Quinn 《Icarus》2008,197(1):221-238

We study the influence of an open cluster environment on the formation and current structure of the Oort cloud. To do this, we have run 19 different simulations of the formation of the Oort cloud for 4.5 Gyrs. In each simulation, the Solar System spends its first 100 Myrs in a different open cluster environment before transitioning to its current field environment. We find that, compared to forming in the field environment, the inner Oort cloud is preferentially loaded with comets while the Sun resides in the open cluster and that most of this material remains locked in the interior of the cloud for the next 4.4 Gyrs. In addition, the outer Oort cloud trapping efficiencies we observe in our simulations are lower than previous formation models by about a factor of 2, possibly implying an even more massive early planetesimal disk. Furthermore, some of our simulations reproduce the orbits of observed extended scattered disk objects, which may serve as an observational constraint on the Sun's early environment. Depending on the particular open cluster environment, the properties of the inner Oort cloud and extended scattered disk can vary widely. On the other hand, the outer portions of the Oort cloud in each of our simulations are all similar.  相似文献   

Large‐scale connectivity of fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy: Inferences from simulated accommodation‐to‐supply cycles and automated extraction of chronosomes     

Pantelis Karamitopoulos  Gert J. Weltje  Rory A. F. Dalman 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):382-402

Multiscale simulation of fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy was used to quantify the elements of the geometry and architectural arrangement of sub‐seismic‐scale fluvial‐to‐shelf sedimentary segments. We conducted numerical experiments of fluvio‐deltaic system evolution by simulating the accommodation‐to‐sediment‐supply (A/S) cycles of varying wavelength and amplitude with the objective to produce synthetic 3‐D stratigraphic records. Post‐processing routines were developed in order to investigate delta lobe architecture in relation to channel‐network evolution throughout A/S cycles, estimate net sediment accumulation rates in 3‐D space, and extract chronostratigraphically constrained lithosomes (or chronosomes) to quantify large‐scale connectivity, that is, the spatial distribution of high net‐to‐gross lithologies. Chronosomes formed under the conditions of channel‐belt aggradation are separated by laterally continuous abandonment surfaces associated with major avulsions and delta‐lobe switches. Chronosomes corresponding to periods in which sea level drops below the inherited shelf break, that is, the youngest portions of the late falling stage systems tract (FSST), form in the virtual absence of major avulsions, owing to the incision in their upstream parts, and thus display purely degradational architecture. Detailed investigation of chronosomes within the late FSST showed that their spatial continuity may be disrupted by higher‐frequency A/S cycles to produce “stranded” sand‐rich bodies encased in shales. Chronosomes formed during early and late falling stage (FSST) demonstrate the highest large‐scale connectivity in their proximal and distal areas, respectively. Lower‐amplitude base level changes, representative of greenhouse periods during which the shelf break is not exposed, increase the magnitude of delta‐lobe switching and favour the development of system‐wide abandonment surfaces, whose expression in real‐world stratigraphy is likely to reflect the intertwined effects of high‐frequency allogenic forcing and differential subsidence.  相似文献   

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error     

Harry West  Michael Horswell  Nevil Quinn 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(6):1172-1193

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.  相似文献   

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead§     

Colin F. Quinn  Jennifer F. Howard  Chen Chen  Joyce E. Coffee  Carlos E. Quintela  Britt A. Parker 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):146-150

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.  相似文献   

Optimal Processing of Marine High-Resolution Seismic Reflection (Chirp) Data     

Quinn  R.  Bull  J.M.  Dix  J.K. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1998,20(1):13-20

Chirp frequency-modulated (FM) systems offer deterministic, repeatable source-signatures for high-resolution, normal incidence marine seismic reflection data acquisition. An optimal processing sequence for uncorrelated Chirp data is presented to demonstrate the applicability of some conventional seismic reflection algorithms to high-resolution data sets, and to emphasise the importance of a known source-signature. An improvement of greater than 60dB in the signal- to-noise ratio is realised from correlating the FM reflection data with the transmitted pulse. Interpretability of ringy deconvolved data is enhanced by the calculation of instantaneous amplitudes. The signal-to-noise ratio and lateral reflector continuity are both improved by the application of predictive filters whose effectiveness are aided by the repeatability of the Chirp source.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal analysis of hillslope–channel coupling and implications for the longitudinal profile in a dryland basin          下载免费PDF全文

Katerina Michaelides  Rory Hollings  Michael Bliss Singer  Mary H. Nichols  Mark A. Nearing 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(8):1608-1621

The long‐term evolution of channel longitudinal profiles within drainage basins is partly determined by the relative balance of hillslope sediment supply to channels and the evacuation of channel sediment. However, the lack of theoretical understanding of the physical processes of hillslope–channel coupling makes it challenging to determine whether hillslope sediment supply or channel sediment evacuation dominates over different timescales and how this balance affects bed elevation locally along the longitudinal profile. In this paper, we develop a framework for inferring the relative dominance of hillslope sediment supply to the channel versus channel sediment evacuation, over a range of temporal and spatial scales. The framework combines distinct local flow distributions on hillslopes and in the channel with surface grain‐size distributions. We use these to compute local hydraulic stresses at various hillslope‐channel coupling locations within the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeast Arizona, USA. These stresses are then assessed as a local net balance of geomorphic work between hillslopes and channel for a range of flow conditions generalizing decadal historical records. Our analysis reveals that, although the magnitude of hydraulic stress in the channel is consistently higher than that on hillslopes, the product of stress magnitude and frequency results in a close balance between hillslope supply and channel evacuation for the most frequent flows. Only at less frequent, high‐magnitude flows do channel hydraulic stresses exceed those on hillslopes, and channel evacuation dominates the net balance. This result suggests that WGEW exists mostly (~50% of the time) in an equilibrium condition of sediment balance between hillslopes and channels, which helps to explain the observed straight longitudinal profile. We illustrate how this balance can be upset by climate changes that differentially affect relative flow regimes on slopes and in channels. Such changes can push the long profile into a convex or concave condition. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrated UAS and LiDAR reveals the importance of land cover and flood magnitude on the formation of incipient chute holes and chute cutoff development     

Quinn W. Lewis  Douglas A. Edmonds  Brian J. Yanites 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1441-1455

Meandering river sinuosity increases until the channel erodes into itself (neck cutoff) or forms a new channel over the floodplain (chute cutoff) and sinuosity is reduced. Unlike neck cutoff, which can be measured or modelled without considering overbank processes, chute cutoff must be at least partially controlled by channel-forming processes on the floodplain. Even though chute cutoff controls meandering river form, the processes that cause chute cutoff are not well understood. This study analyses the morphology of two incipient chute cutoffs along the East Fork White River, Indiana, USA, using high temporal and spatial resolution UAS-based LiDAR and aerial photography. LiDAR and aerial imagery obtained between 1998 and 2019 reveals that large scour holes formed in the centre of both chutes sometime after chute channel initiation. A larger analysis within the study watershed reveals that scour holes within incipient chutes can be stable or unstable, and tend to stabilize when the chute is colonized by native vegetation and forest. When the scour holes form in farmed floodplain, they enlarge rapidly after initial formation and contribute to complete chute cutoff. In addition, this study shows that the formation of scour holes can occur in response to common, relatively low-magnitude floods and that the amount of incipient chute erosion does not depend on peak flood magnitude. The role of scour holes in enlarging chute channels could be an important mechanism for chute channel evolution in meandering rivers. This study also confirms that understanding the relationships among flow, land cover, and cutoff morphology is substantially improved with on-demand remote sensing techniques like integrated UAS and LiDAR. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Design,simulation, and large‐scale testing of an innovative vibration mitigation device employing essentially nonlinear elastomeric springs          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Luo  Nicholas E. Wierschem  Larry A. Fahnestock  Billie F. Spencer Jr.  D. Dane Quinn  D. Michael McFarland  Alexander F. Vakakis  Lawrence A. Bergman 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(12):1829-1851

This study proposes an innovative passive vibration mitigation device employing essentially nonlinear elastomeric springs as its most critical component. Essential nonlinearity denotes the absence (or near absence) of a linear component in the stiffness characteristics of these elastomeric springs. These devices were implemented and tested on a large‐scale nine‐story model building structure. The main focus of these devices is to mitigate structural response under impulse‐like and seismic loading when the structure remains elastic. During the design process of the device, numerical simulations, optimizations, and parametric studies of the structure‐device system were performed to obtain stiffness parameters for the devices so that they can maximize the apparent damping of the fundamental mode of the structure. Pyramidal elastomeric springs were employed to physically realize the optimized essentially nonlinear spring components. Component‐level finite element analyses and experiments were conducted to design the nonlinear springs. Finally, shake table tests using impulse‐like and seismic excitation with different loading levels were performed to experimentally evaluate the performance of the device. Experimental results demonstrate that the properly designed devices can mitigate structural vibration responses, including floor acceleration, displacement, and column strain in an effective, rapid, and robust fashion. Comparison between numerical and experimental results verified the computational model of the nonlinear system and provided a comprehensive verification for the proposed device. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extent and nature of hydrocarbon occurrence in the groundwater of Kuwait     

Eman Al-Awadi  Michael Quinn  Amitabha Mukhopadhyay  Andre Hauser  Adnan Akber  Adel Al-Haddad  Majed Al-Rashedi 《Environmental Geology》2009,56(5):877-889

A study, aimed at characterizing the nature of anthropogenic and biogenic hydrocarbon contamination in the groundwater of Kuwait, was carried out using fluorescence spectroscopy and other analytical techniques. The results of these analyses have demonstrated that the groundwater in certain areas of northern Kuwait has been significantly impacted by contamination originating from the oil-contaminated surface soils. The study revealed that a water-soluble fraction (WSF) of the crude oil surface contamination appeared to be slowly leaching into the freshwater lenses located in the area. The study also showed that hydrocarbon pollutants were practically absent in the brackish water areas of central and southern Kuwait, except for a few isolated sites. However, nonpetroleum hydrocarbons, with ultraviolet-visible absorption characteristics and fluorescence characteristics typically associated with humic substances, were observed at a few sites in the brackish water fields.  相似文献