改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

穆海林  董旭辉  王伟  SAKAMOTO K  TONOOKA Y  周伟生  宁亚东 《中国沙漠》2002,22(2):141-149

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。  相似文献   

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility     

Atsuko NONOMURA  Shuichi HASEGAWA  Hideo MATSUMOTO  Mari TAKAHASHI  Mina MASUMOTO  Kazuhito FUJISAWA 《山地科学学报》2019,(1)

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.  相似文献   

Long-term monitoring of bottom environments of the continental slope off Otsuchi Bay,northeastern Japan     

Kazumasa Oguri  Yasuo Furushima  Takashi Toyofuku  Takafumi Kasaya  Masahide Wakita  Shuichi Watanabe  Katsunori Fujikura  Hiroshi Kitazato 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(1):151-166

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NEUTRON ACTIVATION ANALYSIS OF FIFTEEN GSJ IGNEOUS ROCK REFERENCE SAMPLES     

Naomi AOTA  Yutaka MIYAMOTO  Sakae KOSANDA  Yasuji OURA  Koh SAKAMOTO 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》1994,18(1):65-84

Fifteen rock reference samples "Igneous rock series" issued by the Geological Survey of Japan were analysed for up to 31 elements by neutron activation analysis (NAA); 14 MeV-NAA for Si and Al, fission track method for U, radiochemical and instrumental NAA for rare-earth elements, and instrumental NAA for the remaining elements, with reactor neutrons for the latter three. The present results are compared with published values.  相似文献   

Three‐dimensional shapes and Fe contents of Stardust impact tracks: A track formation model and estimation of comet Wild 2 coma dust particle densities     

Yosuke IIDA  Akira TSUCHIYAMA  Toshihiko KADONO  Kanako SAKAMOTO  Tomoki NAKAMURA  Kentaro UESUGI  Tsukasa NAKANO  Michael E. ZOLENSKY 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(8):1302-1319

Abstract– We investigated three‐dimensional structures of comet Wild 2 coma particle impact tracks using synchrotron radiation (SR) X‐ray microtomography at SPring‐8 to elucidate the nature of comet Wild 2 coma dust particles captured in aerogel by understanding the capture process. All tracks have a similar entrance morphology, indicating a common track formation process near the entrance by impact shock propagation irrespective of impactor materials. Distributions of elements along the tracks were simultaneously measured using SR‐XRF. Iron is distributed throughout the tracks, but it tends to concentrate in the terminal grains and at the bottoms of bulbs. Based on these results, we propose an impact track formation process. We estimate the densities of cometary dust particles based on the hypothesis that the kinetic energy of impacting dust particles is proportional to the track volume. The density of 148 cometary dust particles we investigated ranges from 0.80 to 5.96 g cm^?3 with an average of 1.01 (±0.25) g cm^?3. Moreover, we suggest that less fragile crystalline particles account for approximately 5 vol% (20 wt%) of impacting particles. This value of crystalline particles corresponds to that of chondrules and CAIs, which were transported from the inner region of the solar system to the outer comet‐forming region. Our results also suggest the presence of volatile components, such as organic material and perhaps ice, in some bulbous tracks (type‐C).  相似文献   

A 35 kyr record of organic matter composition and δ13C of n-alkanes in bog sediments close to Lake Baikal: Implications for paleoenvironmental studies     

Ryoshi Ishiwatari  Naoki Fujino  David Brincat  Shuichi Yamamoto  Hikaru Takahara  Koji Shichi  Sergey K. Krivonogov 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(1):51-60

We characterized the compositions of organic compounds in a Cheremushka bog sediment core (deposited over the last 35 kyr), located at the eastern coast of Lake Baikal, to obtain basic information about the terrestrial organic matter (OM) which contributed to Lake Baikal sediments. The bog sediment was analyzed for the molecular composition of n-alkanes, lignin phenols and n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acids, as well as the carbon isotopic composition of plant wax derived n-C₂₇ to C₃₃ alkanes.Concentrations of lignin phenols [vanillyl (V) plus syringyl (S) phenols] normalized to total organic carbon (TOC) in the Holocene are twice those for the last glacial maximum (LGM), while concentrations of TOC-normalized n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acids do not change markedly in this period. Thus, the ratio of lignin phenols to n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acids increases from the LGM to the Holocene. This result is essentially consistent with pollen analysis indicating an expansion of woody plants in the Holocene and a prevailing herb-abundant environment for the LGM. The δ¹³C values of n-C₂₇ to C₃₃ alkanes (e.g. ?29‰ to ?33‰ for C₃₁) indicate the presence of C₃-dominant plants throughout the core.The contribution of terrestrial OM to Lake Baikal sediments was estimated using the biomarkers, on the assumption that the OM in the bog sediments is a representative of the terrestrial OM around the lake. Hence, the estimation using lignin phenol or n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acid parameters indicates that 11–24% of the TOC in the Academician Ridge sediments is land-derived for both the Holocene and the LGM, which is similar to the estimates from C/N values of bulk OM. However, the estimates for terrestrial OM using the n-C₂₇ to C₃₃ alkane parameter are generally higher than those using lignin phenol or n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acid parameters. The difference is thought to be associated with the difference in source and behavior of these biomarkers.  相似文献   

Oxygen isotopic and chemical zoning of melilite crystals in a type A Ca‐Al‐rich inclusion of Efremovka CV3 chondrite     

Noriyuki KAWASAKI  Naoya SAKAMOTO  Hisayoshi YURIMOTO 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(12):2084-2093

Abstract– Different oxygen isotopic reservoirs have been recognized in the early solar system. Fluffy type A Ca‐Al‐rich inclusions (CAIs) are believed to be direct condensates from a solar nebular gas, and therefore, have acquired oxygen from the solar nebula. Oxygen isotopic and chemical compositions of melilite crystals in a type A CAI from Efremovka CV3 chondrite were measured to reveal the temporal variation in oxygen isotopic composition of surrounding nebular gas during CAI formation. The CAI is constructed of two domains, each of which has a core‐mantle structure. Reversely zoned melilite crystals were observed in both domains. Melilite crystals in one domain have a homogeneous ¹⁶O‐poor composition on the carbonaceous chondrite anhydrous mineral (CCAM) line of δ¹⁸O = 5–10‰, which suggests that the domain was formed in a ¹⁶O‐poor oxygen isotope reservoir of the solar nebula. In contrast, melilite crystals in the other domain have continuous variations in oxygen isotopic composition from ¹⁶O‐rich (δ¹⁸O = ?40‰) to ¹⁶O‐poor (δ¹⁸O = 0‰) along the CCAM line. The oxygen isotopic composition tends to be more ¹⁶O‐rich toward the domain rim, which suggests that the domain was formed in a variable oxygen isotope reservoir of the solar nebula. Each domain of the type A CAI has grown in distinct oxygen isotope reservoir of the solar nebula. After the domain formation, domains were accumulated together in the solar nebula to form a type A CAI.  相似文献   

MicroRaman spectroscopy of anomalous planar microstructures in quartz from Mt. Oikeyama: Discovery of a probable impact crater in Japan     

Masao SAKAMOTO  Arnold GUCSIK  Hirotsugu NISHIDO  Kiyotaka NINAGAWA  Tasuku OKUMURA  Shin TOYODA 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2010,45(1):32-42

Abstract– Planar deformation features (PDFs) and planar fractures (PFs) have been found and confirmed by optical microscope observations and microRaman spectroscopy in quartz grains from Mt. Oikeyama (Akaishi Mountains, Central Japan), for which the semicircular topographic feature of the ridge suggests a crater formed by an impact event. According to the optical microscope observations, a low shock pressure (8–10 GPa) is estimated by the occurrence of basal or ω PDFs leading to lack of multiple sets of PDFs. In addition, a new type of planar microstructure was found in several quartz grains. The microRaman characteristics of PDFs in quartz from Mt. Oikeyama show the amorphous state indicating the presence of weak broad bands at 400 and 800 cm^?1 peak positions. These characteristics are indicative of PDFs that are limited to shocked quartz. This indicates an impact origin for distinct planar microstructures in quartz from Mt. Oikeyama.  相似文献   

Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Ranjan Kumar Dahal  Shuichi Hasegawa  Minoru Yamanaka  Santosh Dhakal  Netra Prakash Bhandary  Ryuichi Yatabe 《Environmental Geology》2009,58(3):567-586

In the Himalaya, people live in widely spread settlements and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The intense summer monsoons are the main factor in triggering landslides. However, the relations between landslides and slope hydrology have not been a focal topic in Himalayan landslide research. This paper deals with the contributing parameters for the rainfall-triggered landslides which occurred during an extreme monsoon rainfall event on 23 July 2002, in the south-western hills of Kathmandu valley, in the Lesser Himalaya, Nepal. Parameters such as bedrock geology, geomorphology, geotechnical properties of soil, and clay mineralogy are described in this paper. Landslide modeling was performed in SEEP/W and SLOPE/W to understand the relationship of pore water pressure variations in soil layers and to determine the spatial variation of landslide occurrence. Soil characteristics, low angle of internal friction of fines in soil, medium range of soil permeability, presence of clay minerals in soil, bedrock hydrogeology, and human intervention were found to be the main contributing parameters for slope failures in the region.  相似文献   

Phytoplankton productivity in the western subarctic gyre of the North Pacific in early summer 2006     

Tetsuichi Fujiki  Kazuhiko Matsumoto  Shuichi Watanabe  Takuji Hosaka  Toshiro Saino 《Journal of Oceanography》2011,67(3):295-303

We deployed a profiling buoy system incorporating a fast repetition rate fluorometer in the western subarctic Pacific and carried out time-series observations of phytoplankton productivity from 9 June to 15 July 2006. The chlorophyll a (Chl a) biomass integrated over the euphotic layer was as high as 45–50 mg Chl a m⁻² in the middle of June and remained in the 30–40 mg Chl a m⁻² range during the rest of observation period; day-to-day variation in Chl a biomass was relatively small. The daily net primary productivity integrated over the euphotic layer ranged from 144 to 919 mg C m⁻² day⁻¹ and varied greatly, depending more on insolation rather than Chl a biomass. In addition, we found that part of primary production was exported to a 150-m depth within 2 days, indicating that the variations in primary productivity quickly influenced the organic carbon flux from the upper ocean. Our results suggest that the short-term variability in primary productivity is one of the key factors controlling the carbon cycle in the surface ocean in the western subarctic Pacific.  相似文献