Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS     

梁英麦康森  孙世春于道展 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2001,19(3):249-254

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.  相似文献   

广东省拖网网囊调查     

杨吝  张旭丰  孙典荣  谭永光 《广东海洋大学学报》2001,21(4):22-26

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.  相似文献   

Early warning research on salt-alkalization desertification in western Songnen Plain     

BIAN Jian-min  LIN Nian-feng  TANG Jie College of Environment  Resources  Jilin  University  Changchun  Jilin  China 《东北亚地学研究》2005,(Z1)

Desertification is an environmental issue in the world. The salt-alkalization desertification land area formed by both primary and secondary salt-alkalization has extended in a large scale, which has become a significant eco-environmental problem. Based on the characteristics of eco-environment and the situation of desertification in western Songnen plain, this paper reports the analyzes of its formation in background and cause. An early warning system on the salt-alkalization desertification is established and the GIS technology is used to abstract the information of desertification evaluation index. Supported by the integrated technology of the GIS and ANN, the orientation and quantitative result of desertification are gained, which is helpful to the eco-environment protection and resource development in western Songnen Plain.  相似文献   

Apsidal corotation in mean motion resonance: the 55 Cancri system as an example   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Li-Yong Zhou  Harry J. Lehto  Yi-Sui Sun  Jia-Qing Zheng 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1495-1502

  相似文献   

The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater and the interaction of copper with humic matter     

Mingyi  Sun 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1985,3(2):224-234

The anodic stripping voltammetry with physically-coating mercury film electrode was used to investigate the complexing action of trace heavy metals in seawater with organic ligands. The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater was determined by titrating the organic ligands in natural seawater with standard ionic copper solution. The complexing actions of copper in seawater with humic acid (HA) or fulvic acid (FA) were investigated by titrating copper in seawater with HA or FA solution. The equilibrium time, electrodeposition potential, and effect of pH etc. were investigated respectively. The results show that the interaction of copper in seawater with organic matter is a fast process. At natural pH, HA or FA tend to act with copper in seawater to form nonlabile complexes. During experimental electrode process, these complexes did not significantly dissociate. The experimental results were calculated according to 1∶1 complex formation.  相似文献   

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging     

Yanjun ZHANG Fenglong ZHANG Full QI Fuquan NI 《东北亚地学研究》2006,9(2):199-203

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.  相似文献   

The global joule heat production rate and the AE index     

Sun Wei  B.-H. Ahn  S.-I. Akasofu 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(3):279-281

The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate.  相似文献   

差分观测与伪距观测的定位精度     

孙宏伟  李玉莉 《时间频率学报》1993,(2)

严格论证了在对空间或地面目标的定位中,利用伪距测量观测模型的几何因子大于用台站间一次差分观测模型的几何因子.此外,台站间完全差分测量观测的定位精度优于不完全测量情形的定位精度.这些结果给人们在实际工作中采取何种定位方式提供了可靠的理论依据.  相似文献   

金矿床的热液流体特征研究     

王建国  孙丽娜  赵玉山  侯根群  赵纯福 《国土资源》1993,(4)

通过对中国东部金成矿区域地质特征的分析,根据氢氧同位素及流体包裹体数据特征,表明中国东部金矿床成矿流体主要来自大气降水,其次为变质作用过程释放的水和岩浆分异水;成矿金属组分主要来自太古宙变质岩系。  相似文献