A Climate Prediction Method Based on EMD and Ensemble Prediction Technique     

Shuoben Bi  Shengjie Bi  Xuan Chen  Han Ji  Ying Lu 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(4):611-622

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.  相似文献   

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty     

Bi Yu Chen  Donggen Wang  Shih-Lung Shaw  Hui-Ping Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):783-804

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.  相似文献   

日长的十年尺度变化研究     

吴斌  彭碧波 《天文学报》1999,40(4):360-363

用高精度的日长资料和由人卫激光测距（ＳＬＲ） 解算出的地球引力场系数Ｊ２ 的变化序列ΔＪ２ ,证明地球各圈层的物质迁移对日长１０ 年尺度变化贡献仅占日长１０ 年尺度变化的４ ％ ,可以忽略;认为１０ 年尺度变化主要来源于地球各圈层的内力矩或相对角动量部分,其优点是可以不顾及地球各圈层物质迁移复杂的物理机制  相似文献   

山东乳山海滩岩及其重要科学意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

毕福志  袁又申 《现代地质》1991,5(2):201-207,T002

乳山海滩岩,经过室内对微体化石、大化石和沉积岩石学研究,查明该岩体具有典型的海滩岩特征:含有两种文石胶结物、滨海相微体古生物和热带大化石。该岩体形成在全新世最佳气侯期,至少有3次成岩期,对研究古环境变化规律具有重要的科学意义。  相似文献   

滇黔桂岩溶地区农业地域类型分区之研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

毕于远 《中国岩溶》1993,12(4):329-337

本文针对滇黔桂岩溶地区农业自然环境特征、农村社会经济条件及其岩溶对农业生产发展和农业生态环境建设影响等的显著地域差异和显著地域分异规律,根据分区指标选择原则,建立起以地貌类型、岩溶地貌景观类型、农民人均纯收入为内容的分区指标体系,把全区划分为三大类、九个农业地域类型区。对三大类型区作了简述。   相似文献   

鲈鱼的形态和生态特征及养殖结果     

毕庶万  毕文胜  时吉营  戴海平  林源 《海洋科学进展》1998,(1)

本文根据现有文献资料和笔者的研究结果,比较了不同产地,不同种群鲈鱼的形态、生态特征和各地的养殖结果,分析了产生不同结果的重要原因,提出了充分利用不同种类及产地的鲈鱼为人类造福。  相似文献   

基于二维模式的PDM与MRPⅡ无缝衔接可行性分析     

丁香乾  冯天瑾  高新生  毕黎明  于树松 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1998,(4)

ＣＩＭＳ工程的重要思想是将企业全部生产经营活动视为有机整体,可以集成与优化。但是,目前我国ＣＩＭＳ工程中ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ分系统并未真正实现紧密结合与集成,甚至是彼此分离,无直接衔接。在实践经验的基础上,作者探讨了基于二维模式的ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ紧密衔接可行性,提出了实现这一衔接的初步设想  相似文献   

不动产地籍和产权登记信息系统     

吕亮卿  沙晋明 《测绘工程》1999,8(4):52-57

介绍了一种涵盖地籍管理过程且在实施过程中简单易行而有效的信息系统,为土地资源的合理开发利用和地籍信息的动态管理了新的途径。  相似文献   

10月份赤道东太平洋的海温与青岛汛期降水     

李德萍  黄明政  毕超 《气象》1999,25(1):52-54

历年１０月东太平洋赤道附近的海温变化与来年初夏（６月）西太平洋副高脊线位置呈明显的反相关;其海温的年际变化对于青岛地区来年汛期降水具有敏感的指示意义。  相似文献   

安徽淮北三铺地区镁夕卡岩金（铜、铁）矿床生成地质环境、分带和流体演化   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

赵一鸣  张轶男  毕承思  唐开健  孙庆安 《矿床地质》1999,18(1):1-10，36

世界上的含金夕卡岩大多属钙夕卡岩型,镁夕卡岩金矿床十分稀少。本文介绍我国安徽北部三铺地区镁夕卡岩金（铜、铁）矿床的地质地球化学特征。该区含金（铜、铁）镁夕卡岩主要产于台地断拗区燕山期石英二长闪长玢岩与中上寒武统白云质大理岩外接触带。岩体内接触带发育钙夕卡岩和钾长石化,局部有辉钼矿化产出。金矿化与铜的硫化物密切共生,属于镁夕卡岩的退化热液交代作用产物。金属矿化分带序列自蚀变石英二长闪长玢岩到镁夕卡岩  相似文献