Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?     

Valentina Bosetti  Carlo Carraro  Massimo Tavoni 《Climatic change》2009,96(3):299-312

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.  相似文献   

Structural control over equilibrium silicon and oxygen isotopic fractionation: A first-principles density-functional theory study     

Merlin Méheut  Michele Lazzeri  Etienne Balan  Francesco Mauri 《Chemical Geology》2009,258(1-2):28-37

Isotopic fractionation factors for oxygen and silicon in selected silicates (quartz, enstatite, forsterite, lizardite, kaolinite) are calculated using first-principles methods based on density-functional theory. Good agreement between theory and experiment is found in the case of oxygen. In the case of silicon, agreement and differences with existing estimates of equilibrium fractionation factors are discussed. The relationship between silicon and oxygen fractionation factors, silicate polymerization degree and chemical composition is studied and compared with previous semi-empirical models.  相似文献   

Star formation in the starburst cluster in NGC 3603     

Matteo Correnti  Francesco Paresce  Rossella Aversa  Giacomo Beccari  Guido De Marchi  Marcella Di Criscienzo  Xiaoying Pang  Loredana Spezzi  Elena Valenti  Paolo Ventura 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,340(2):263-279

We have used new, deep, visible and near infrared observations of the compact starburst cluster in the giant HII region NGC 3603 and its surroundings with the WFC3 on HST and HAWK-I on the VLT to study in detail the physical properties of its intermediate mass (∼1–3 M_⊙) stellar population. We show that after correction for differential extinction and actively accreting stars, and the study of field star contamination, strong evidence remains for a continuous spread in the ages of pre-main sequence stars in the range ∼2 to ∼30 Myr within the temporal resolution available. Existing differences among presently available theoretical models account for the largest possible variation in shape of the measured age histograms within these limits. We also find that this isochronal age spread in the near infrared and visible Colour-Magnitude Diagrams cannot be reproduced by any other presently known source of astrophysical or instrumental scatter that could mimic the luminosity spread seen in our observations except, possibly, episodic accretion. The measured age spread and the stellar spatial distribution in the cluster are consistent with the hypothesis that star formation started at least 20–30 Myrs ago progressing slowly but continuously up to at least a few million years ago. All the stars in the considered mass range are distributed in a flattened oblate spheroidal pattern with the major axis oriented in an approximate South-East–North-West direction, and with the length of the equatorial axis decreasing with increasing age. This asymmetry is most likely due to the fact that star formation occurred along a filament of gas and dust in the natal molecular cloud oriented locally in this direction.  相似文献   

When do rock glacier fronts fail? Insights from two case studies in South Tyrol (Italian Alps)     

Christian Kofler  Volkmar Mair  Stephan Gruber  Maria Cristina Todisco  Ian Nettleton  Stefan Steger  Marc Zebisch  Stefan Schneiderbauer  Francesco Comiti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(7):1311-1327

The fronts of two rock glaciers located in South Tyrol (Italian Alps) failed on 13 August 2014, initiating debris flows in their downslope channels. A multimethod approach including climate, meteorological, and ground temperature data analysis, aerial image correlation, as well as geotechnical testing and modeling, led to the reconstruction of the two events. An integrated investigation of static predisposing factors, slowly changing preparatory factors, and potential triggering events shed light on the most likely reasons for such failures. Our results suggest that the occurrence of front destabilization at the two rock glaciers can only partly be explained by the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. Indeed, antecedent hydrological and thermal ground conditions were characterized by a saturated active layer favored by a snow-rich winter and extensive precipitation in late spring and summer. Also, the rising trend of air temperature during spring and summer months since 1950s might explain the concurrent marked displacement of the two rock glaciers. Indeed, geotechnical investigations have provided strong indications that one of the investigated rock glacier fronts was at a marginally stable state prior to 2014. As rainfall events more intense than the one that occurred in August 2014 were previously recorded in the same area without resulting failures at the studied rock glaciers, we propose that both predisposing and preparatory destabilizing factors have played a key role in the 2014 rock glacier front failures.  相似文献   

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system     

Simone Bizzi  Marco Tangi  Rafael J. P. Schmitt  John Pitlick  Hervé Piégay  Andrea Francesco Castelletti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(14):2946-2962

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.  相似文献   

Correction to: Cultural heritage and earthquakes: bridging the gap between geophysics,archaeoseismology and engineering     

Pecchioli  Laura  Panzera  Francesco  Poggi  Valerio 《Journal of Seismology》2021,25(6):1557-1558

Journal of Seismology -  相似文献   

Mechanical interpretation of dry granular masses impacting on rigid obstacles     

Calvetti  Francesco  di Prisco  Claudio  Redaelli  Irene  Sganzerla  Anna  Vairaktaris  Emmanouil 《Acta Geotechnica》2019,14(5):1289-1305

Acta Geotechnica - The evaluation of impact forces exerted by flowing granular masses on rigid obstacles is of fundamental importance for the assessment of the associated risk and for the design of...  相似文献   

SESTET: A spatially explicit stream temperature model based on equilibrium temperature     

Luca Carraro  Marco Toffolon  Andrea Rinaldo  Enrico Bertuzzo 《水文研究》2020,34(2):355-369

Stream-water temperature is a key variable controlling chemical, biological, and ecological processes in freshwater environments. Most models focus on a single river cross-section; however, temperature gradients along stretches and tributaries of a river network are crucial to assess ecohydrological features such as aquatic species suitability, growth and feeding rates, or disease transmission. We propose SESTET, a deterministic, spatially explicit stream temperature model for a whole river network, based on water and energy budgets at a reach scale and requiring only commonly available spatially distributed datasets, such as morphology and air temperature, as input. Heat exchange processes at the air–water interface are modelled via the widely used equilibrium temperature concept, whereas the effects of network structure are accounted for through advective heat fluxes. A case study was conducted on the prealpine Wigger river (Switzerland), where water temperatures have been measured in the period 2014–2018 at 11 spatially distributed locations. The results show the advantages of accounting for water and energy budgets at the reach scale for the entire river network, compared with simpler, lumped formulations. Because our approach fundamentally relies on spatially distributed air temperature fields, adequate spatial interpolation techniques that account for the effects of both elevation and thermal inversion in air temperature are key to a successful application of the model. SESTET allows the assessment of the magnitude of the various components of the heat budget at the reach scale and the derivation of reliable estimates of spatial gradients of mean daily stream temperatures for the whole catchment based on a limited number of conveniently located (viz., spanning the largest possible elevation range) measuring stations. Moreover, accounting for mixing processes and advective fluxes through the river network allows one to trust regionalized values of the parameters controlling the relationship between equilibrium and air temperature, a key feature to generalize the model to data-scarce catchments.  相似文献   

La nuova carta magnetica d'Italia (Isogone al 1° gennaio 1940) dell'Istituto Geografico Militare     

Francesco Ferri 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1940,2(1):12-19

Riassunto L'Autore, accennato alla carta del Palazzo del 1892 e dimostrata la necessità di una più precisa carta rispondente alle accresciute esigenze civili e militari, tratta del nuovo rilievo magnetico d'Italia basato su ben 1529 stazioni eseguite dall'Istituto Geografico Militare dal 1932 al 1937 e quindi della nuova carta magnetica con le isogone al 1° gennaio 1940 testé pubblicata dallo stesso Istituto.

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Zusammenfassung Der Verf., nach Erwähnung der erdmagnetischen Karte von Palazzo des Jahres 1892 hervorhebt die Notwendigkeit einer genaueren den vermehrten zivilen und militärischen Ansprüchen entsprechender Aufnahme; eine solche neue erdmagnetische Aufnahme Italiens ist vom Istituto Geografico Militare in den Jahren 1932–1937 durchgeführt worden und zwar mit zusammen 1529 Stationen. Diese Arbeit wird beschrieben und erörtet besonders in Zusammenhang mit der hier vorgestellten neuen Isogonen-Kart, bezogen auf dem 1. Januar 1940.

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Résumé L'Auteur, après avoir mentionné la carte magnétique du Prof. Palazzo (1892) et démontré la nécessité d'une carte plus précise et plus correspondante à l'accroissement des exigences civiles et militaires, s'entretient sur le nouveau levé magnétique d'Italie, qui se base sur les observations de 1529 stations, esecutées par l'Istituto Geografico Militare entre 1932 et 1937; ensuite il illustre la nouvelle carte magnétique des isogones, au l.er Janiver 1940, qui vient d'être publiée par le même Institut et qui est jointe au présent mémoire.

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Quest'articolo è in parte un riassunto di quanto io stesso ebbi a scrivere in alcune memorie precedenti edite dall'Istituto Geografico Militare e dalla Società Italiana per il Progresso delle Scienze.  相似文献   

Pulsazioni della pressione atmosferica con Periodi inferiori ad un'ora     

Prof. P. Francesco Saverio Zanon 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1948,11(1):19-41

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