In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. 相似文献
The calibration errors on experimental slant total electron content (TEC) determined with global positioning system (GPS) observations is revisited. Instead of the analysis of the calibration errors on the carrier phase leveled to code ionospheric observable, we focus on the accuracy analysis of the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable determined from a global distribution of permanent receivers. The results achieved are: (1) using data from an entire month within the last solar cycle maximum, the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable is found to be over one order of magnitude more accurate than the carrier phase leveled to code ionospheric observable and the raw code ionospheric observable. The observation error of the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable ranges from 0.05 to 0.11 total electron content unit (TECU) while that of the carrier phase leveled to code and the raw code ionospheric observable is from 0.65 to 1.65 and 3.14 to 7.48 TECU, respectively. (2) The time-varying receiver differential code bias (DCB), which presents clear day boundary discontinuity and intra-day variability pattern, contributes the most part of the observation error. This contribution is assessed by the short-term stability of the between-receiver DCB, which ranges from 0.06 to 0.17 TECU in a single day. (3) The remaining part of the observation errors presents a sidereal time cycle pattern, indicating the effects of the multipath. Further, the magnitude of the remaining part implies that the code multipath effects are much reduced. (4) The intra-day variation of the between-receiver DCB of the collocated stations suggests that estimating DCBs as a daily constant can have a mis-modeling error of at least several tenths of 1 TECU. 相似文献
Natural Hazards - Chilean geography exposes the country to high-level risks such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The disasters of 1930, 1960, 2010, and 2014 testify to the continuous link between... 相似文献
In the numerical simulation of groundwater flow, uncertainties often affect the precision of the simulation results. Stochastic and statistical approaches such as the Monte Carlo method, the Neumann expansion method and the Taylor series expansion, are commonly employed to estimate uncertainty in the final output. Based on the first-order interval perturbation method, a combination of the interval and perturbation methods is proposed as a viable alternative and compared to the well-known equal interval continuous sampling method (EICSM). The approach was realized using the GFModel (an unsaturated-saturated groundwater flow simulation model) program. This study exemplifies scenarios of three distinct interval parameters, namely, the hydraulic conductivities of six equal parts of the aquifer, their boundary head conditions, and several hydrogeological parameters (e.g. specific storativity and extraction rate of wells). The results show that the relative errors of deviation of the groundwater head extremums (RDGE) in the late stage of simulation are controlled within approximately ±5% when the changing rate of the hydrogeological parameter is no more than 0.2. From the viewpoint of the groundwater head extremums, the relative errors can be controlled within ±1.5%. The relative errors of the groundwater head variation are within approximately ±5% when the changing rate is no more than 0.2. The proposed method of this study is applicable to unsteady-state confined water flow systems.
Empirical evidence has shown that particle breakage affects the mechanical behaviour of granular materials. The source of this mechanism takes place at the particle scale, and the main consequence on the macromechanical behaviour is increasing compressibility. Due to the inverse correlation between particle size and particle crushing strength, coarse rockfill materials are particularly vulnerable to mechanical degradation due to particle breakage. However, such coarse materials do not fit in standard laboratory devices, and the alternative of large sample testing is usually unavailable or too expensive. Alternatively, recent works have proposed multi-scale approaches using the discrete element method (DEM) to carry out numerical testing of coarse crushable materials, although few studies have focused on size effects. This article presents the application of a DEM bonded-cell model to study particle size-strength correlation on angular rock aggregates. Each particle is modelled by a cluster of perfectly rigid polyhedral cells with Mohr–Coulomb contact law. Constant cell density within particles implies that the presence of potential fragmentation planes increases with size. Therefore, particle strength decreases with size. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was carried out through 1477 particle crushing simulations in a given particle size. Based on published experimental data on calcareous rock aggregates, part of the simulations were used for calibration, and 97 additional simulations of a coarser size fraction were performed for validation. The results show a good agreement with the empirical data in terms of size effect and data scatter through Weibull statistics.
