Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey     

S. Akkar  T. Azak  T. Çan  U. Çeken  M. B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  T. Y. Duman  M. Erdik  S. Ergintav  F. T. Kadirioğlu  D. Kalafat  Ö. Kale  R. F. Kartal  K. Kekovalı  T. Kılıç  S. Özalp  S. Altuncu Poyraz  K. Şeşetyan  S. Tekin  A. Yakut  M. T. Yılmaz  M. S. Yücemen  Ö. Zülfikar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3197-3228

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.  相似文献   

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise     

Johannes Becherer  Jacobus Hofstede  Ulf Gräwe  Kaveh Purkiani  Elisabeth Schulz  Hans Burchard 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(1):131-151

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.  相似文献   

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum     

Clotaire Michel  Helen Crowley  Pia Hannewald  Pierino Lestuzzi  Donat Fäh 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4639-4660

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.  相似文献   

The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes     

Matthew J. Genge  Luke Alesbrook  Natasha V. Almeida  Helena C. Bates  Phil A. Bland  Mark R. Boyd  Mark J. Burchell  Gareth S. Collins  Luke T. Cornwell  Luke Daly  Hadrien A. R. Devillepoix  Matthias van Ginneken  Ansgar Greshake  Daniel Hallatt  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Laura E. Jenkins  Diane Johnson  Rosie Jones  Ashley J. King  Haithem Mansour  Sarah McMullan  Jennifer T. Mitchell  Gavyn Rollinson  Sara S. Russell  Christian Schröder  Natasha R. Stephen  Martin D. Suttle  Jon D. Tandy  Patrick Trimby  Eleanor K. Sansom  Vassilia Spathis  Francesca M. Willcocks  Penelope J. Wozniakiewicz 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2024,59(5):948-972

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.  相似文献   

Influence of multiple compton scattering on the spectrum of soft diffuse gamma rays at balloon altitudes     

C. Moyano  V. Schönfelder 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1974,30(2):L17-L20

A Monte Carlo program has been developed in order to examine the influence of multiple Compton scattering in the atmosphere on the spectrum of cosmic diffuse gamma rays. It is shown that the corrections to the made to the measurements of the double-Compton gamma telescope at 2·5 gr cm^–2 rest atmosphere by Schönfelder and Lichti (1974) are lower than 4% in the energy range between 1.5 and 10 MeV.Under support of a fellowship by the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst  相似文献   

BVRI photometry of possible standard stars in NGC 188     

L. Kaml 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1998,319(3):183-185

CCD photometry of possible standard stars, in Cousins B, V, R and I, in a field in the region of NGC 188 is presented.  相似文献   

A first Holocene leaf wax isotope-based paleoclimate record from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands     

Marcel Bliedtner  Roland Zech  Jana Zech  Imke Schäfer  Hans von Suchodoletz 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(5):625-633

The Holocene paleoclimate of the Caucasus region is rather complex and not yet well understood: while existing studies are mainly based on pollen records from high-altitude and humid lowland regions, no records are available from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands. Therefore, this study investigated compound-specific δ²H and δ¹³C isotopes of leaf wax biomarkers from Holocene floodplain soils in eastern Georgia. Our results show that the leaf wax δ²H signal from the paleosols mostly reflects changes in the moisture source and its isotopic composition. Depleted δ²H values before ~8 cal ka bp change towards enriched values after ~5 cal ka bp and become again depleted after ~1.6 cal ka bp. This trend could be caused by Holocene changes of the isotopic compositions of the Black and eastern Mediterranean Sea, and/or by varying contribution of both moisture sources linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The leaf wax δ¹³C signal from the paleosols directly indicates varying local water availability and drought stress. Depleted δ¹³C values before ~8 and after ~5 cal ka bp indicate wetter local conditions with higher water availability, whereas more enriched values during the middle Holocene (~8 until at least 5 cal ka bp ) indicate drier conditions with increased drought stress.  相似文献   

Water in garnet of garnetite (metarodingite) and eclogite from the Erzgebirge and the Lepontine Alps     

Esther Schmädicke  Jürgen Gose 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(9):905-933

Little is known about water in nominally anhydrous minerals of orogenic garnet peridotite and enclosed metabasic rocks. This study is focused on peridotite-hosted eclogite and garnetite (metarodingite) from the Erzgebirge (EG), Germany, and the Lepontine Alps (LA), Switzerland. Newly discovered, peridotite-hosted eclogite in the Erzgebirge occurs in the same ultra-high pressure (UHP) unit as gneiss-hosted coesite eclogite, from which it is petrologically indistinguishable. Garnet is present in all mafic and ultramafic high pressure (HP) rocks providing for an ideal proxy to compare the H₂O content of the different rock types. Garnet composition is very similar in EG and LA samples and depends on the rock type. Garnet from garnetite, compared to eclogite, contains more CaO (garnetite: 10.5–16.5 wt%; eclogite: 5–11 wt%) and is also characterized by an anomalous REE distribution. In contrast, the infrared (IR) spectra of garnet from both rock types reveal the same OH absorption bands that are also identical to those of previously studied peridotitic garnet from the same locations. Two groups of IR bands, SW I (3,650 ± 10 cm⁻¹) and SW II (3,570–3,630 cm⁻¹) are ascribed to structural hydroxyl (colloquially ‘water’). A third, broad band is present in about half of the analysed garnet domains and related to molecular water (MW) in submicroscopic fluid inclusions. The primary content of structural H₂O, preserved in garnet domains without fluid inclusions (and MW bands), varies systematically—depending on both the location and the rock type. Garnet from EG rocks contains more water compared to LA samples, and garnet from garnetite (EG: 121–241 wt.ppm H₂O; LA: 23–46 wt.ppm) hosts more water than eclogitic garnet (EG: 84 wt.ppm; LA: 4–11 wt.ppm). Higher contents of structural water (SW) are observed in domains with molecular water, in which the SW II band (being not restricted to HP conditions) is simultaneously enhanced. This implies that fluid influx during decompression not only led to fluid inclusions but also favoured the uptake of secondary SW. The results signify that garnet from all EG and LA samples was originally H₂O-undersaturated. Combining the data from eclogite, garnetite and previously studied peridotite, H₂O and CaO are positively correlated, pointing to the same degree of H₂O-undersaturation at peak metamorphism in all rock types. This ubiquitous water-deficiency cannot be reconciled with the derivation of any of these rocks from the lowermost part of the mantle wedge that was in contact with the subducting plate. This agrees with the previously inferred abyssal origin for part of the rocks from the LA (Cima di Gagnone). A similar origin has to be invoked for the Erzgebirge UHP unit. We suggest that all mafic and ultramafic rocks of this unit not only shared the same metamorphic evolution but also a common protolith origin, most probably on the ocean floor. This inference is supported by the presence of peridotite-hosted garnetite, representing metamorphosed rodingite.  相似文献   

How Different Analysis and Interpolation Methods Affect the Accuracy of Ice Surface Elevation Changes Inferred from Satellite Altimetry     

Strößenreuther  Undine  Horwath  Martin  Schröder  Ludwig 《Mathematical Geosciences》2020,52(4):499-525

Satellite altimetry has been widely used to determine surface elevation changes in polar ice sheets. The original height measurements are irregularly distributed in space and time. Gridded surface elevation changes are commonly derived by repeat altimetry analysis (RAA) and subsequent spatial interpolation of height change estimates. This article assesses how methodological choices related to those two steps affect the accuracy of surface elevation changes, and how well this accuracy is represented by formal uncertainties. In a simulation environment resembling CryoSat-2 measurements acquired over a region in northeast Greenland between December 2010 and January 2014, different local topography modeling approaches and different cell sizes for RAA, and four interpolation approaches are tested. Among the simulated cases, the choice of either favorable or unfavorable RAA affects the accuracy of results by about a factor of 6, and the different accuracy levels are propagated into the results of interpolation. For RAA, correcting local topography by an external digital elevation model (DEM) is best, if a very precise DEM is available, which is not always the case. Yet the best DEM-independent local topography correction (nine-parameter model within a 3,000 m diameter cell) is comparable to the use of a perfect DEM, which exactly represents the ice sheet topography, on the same cell size. Interpolation by heterogeneous measurement-error-filtered kriging is significantly more accurate (on the order of 50% error reduction) than interpolation methods, which do not account for heterogeneous errors.

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Mega-monsoon variability during the late Triassic: Re-assessing the role of orbital forcing in the deposition of playa sediments in the Germanic Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

André Bahr  Gilles Kolber  Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr  Lutz Reinhardt  Oliver Friedrich  Jörg Pross 《Sedimentology》2020,67(2):951-970

The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo–Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed ‘mega-monsoon’) that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2·4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red–green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.  相似文献