Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

  相似文献   

High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers     

Schmidt  Daniel F.  Grise  Kevin M.  Pace  Michael L. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):517-532

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...  相似文献   

Shock metamorphic history of >4 Ga Apollo 14 and 15 zircons     

Carolyn A. Crow  Desmond E. Moser  Kevin D. McKeegan 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(1):181-201

During impact events, zircons develop a wide range of shock metamorphic features that depend on the pressure and temperature conditions experienced by the zircon. These conditions vary with original distance from impact center and whether the zircon grains are incorporated into ejecta or remain within the target crust. We have employed the range of shock metamorphic features preserved in >4 Ga lunar zircons separated from Apollo 14 and 15 breccias and soils in order to gain insights into the impact shock histories of these areas of the Moon. We report microstructural characteristics of 31 zircons analyzed using electron beam methods including electron backscatter pattern (EBSP) and diffraction (EBSD). The major results of this survey are as follows. (1) The abundance of curviplanar features hosting secondary impact melt inclusions suggests that most of the zircons have experienced shock pressures between 3 and 20 GPa; (2) the scarcity of recrystallization or decomposition textures and the absence of the high‐pressure polymorph, reidite, suggests that few grains have been shocked to over 40 GPa or heated above 1000 °C in ejecta settings; (3) one grain exhibits narrow, arc‐shaped bands of twinned zircon, which map out as spherical shells, and represent a novel shock microstructure. Overall, most of the Apollo 14 and 15 zircons exhibit shock features similar to those of terrestrial zircon grains originating from continental crust below large (~200 km) impact craters (e.g., Vredefort impact basin), suggesting derivation from central uplifts or uplifted rims of large basins or craters on the Moon and not high‐temperature and ‐pressure ejecta deposits.  相似文献   

The galaxy luminosity function in the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area at the Southern Galactic Cap     

Pin-Song Zhao  Hong Wu  Cong Kevin Xu  Ming Yang  Fan Yang  Yi-Nan Zhu  Man I Lam  Jun-Jie Jin  Hai-Long Yuan  Hao-Tong Zhang  Shi-Yin Shen  Jian-Rong Shi  A-Li Luo  Xue-Bing Wu  Yong-Heng Zhao  Yi-Peng Jing 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2019,(8)

We present optical luminosity functions(LFs) of galaxies in the~(0.1) g,~(0.1) r,~(0.1) i bands, calculated using data in~40 deg~2 sky area of the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area(LaCoSSPAr) in the Southern Galactic Cap. Redshifts for galaxies brighter than r = 18.1 were obtained mainly with LAMOST. In each band, LFs derived using both parametric and non-parametric maximum likelihood methods agree well with each other. In the0.1 r band, our fitting parameters of the Schechter function are φ_*=(1.65 ± 0.36) × 10~(-2) h~3 Mpc~(-3), M_*=-20.69 ± 0.06 mag and α =-1.12 ± 0.08,which agree with previous studies. Separate LFs are also derived for emission line galaxies and absorption line galaxies. The LFs of absorption line galaxies show a dip at~(0.1) r ~18.5 and can be fitted well by a double-Gaussian function, suggesting a bimodality in passive galaxies.  相似文献   

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Bernard A. Megrey  Jonathan A. Hare  William T. Stockhausen  Are Dommasnes  Harald Gjster  William Overholtz  Sarah Gaichas  Georg Skaret  Jannike Falk-Petersen  Jason S. Link  Kevin D. Friedland 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):63

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.  相似文献   

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼     

汪金涛  陈新军  Kevin W. Staples  陈勇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):94-101

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

Factors influencing biodeposit production by the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii     

Kevin J. Collier  Susan J. Clearwater  Paula H. M. W. Neijenhuis  Susanna A. Wood 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(1):1-15

Laboratory experiments on the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii were used to investigate the short-term effects (7–8 days) of food type on rates of biodeposition and benthic substrate respiration. Post-feeding biodeposition rates ranged from 0.34 to 1.52?mg?g^?1?h^?1 (mean?=?0.50?mg g^?1?h^?1) and were unaffected by the addition of toxin-producing Microcystis. Addition of suspended sediment (30?mg?L^?1) visibly altered substrate composition, and increased total and inorganic biodeposit production rates by 24–33% compared to mussels fed commercial phytoplankton stock. Biodeposition rates of mussels in lake bed substrates were 38% higher than those in silica sand for identical feeding regimes, suggesting that a significant proportion of material produced in this experiment could have been derived from feeding on organic matter in the lake bed sediments. Respiration rates were higher in treatments with Microcystis but were unaffected by the presence of mussels. This laboratory study suggests that biodeposition by E. menziesii is resilient to short-term exposure to Microcystis, and highlights the ability of mussels to alter benthic substrate composition by incorporating suspended sediment into substrates.  相似文献   

A stock assessment for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic using an environmentally dependent surplus production model     

WANG Jintao  CHEN Xinjun  Kevin W.Staples  CHEN Yong 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,(2)

The southern Patagonian stock(SPS) of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production(EDSP) model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors(favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C) were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity(K) in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion(DIC) values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield(MSY) from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F_(0.1) and F_(MSY). Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.  相似文献   

Joint modelling of wave spectral parameters for extreme sea states     

Philip Jonathan  Jan Flynn  Kevin Ewans 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(11-12):1070-1080

Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of H_S and T_P. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community.  相似文献   

Active mud volcanoes on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan—first results from the P362/2 cruise of R/V Poseidon   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tomas Feseker  Kevin R. Brown  Cecile Blanchet  Florian Scholz  Marianne Nuzzo  Anja Reitz  Mark Schmidt  Christian Hensen 《Geo-Marine Letters》2010,30(3-4):169-186

In February 2008, cruise P362/2 was undertaken aboard R/V Poseidon to the Giza and North Alex mud volcanoes (MVs) on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan. Emitted fluids were strongly depleted in chloride and rich in hydrocarbons, predominantly of thermogenic origin. In-situ sediment temperature measurements indicate extremely high and moderate levels of activity for the North Alex MV and Giza MV, respectively, and suggest rapid changes from dormant to active stages. Both the physical properties of core sediments (e.g., color and magnetic susceptibility), and their assemblages of micro- and nannofossils point to different sources for the two mud volcanoes. Biostratigraphic dating suggests source depths of 2,100–2,450 mbsf for the Giza MV and 1,150–1,550 mbsf for the North Alex MV. Very high temperatures of up to 70°C in shallow sediments at the North Alex MV can be explained only if the fluid source were warmer and deeper than the sediment source.  相似文献