<Emphasis Type="Italic">R/S</Emphasis> analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dst</Emphasis> index     

B. V. Kiselev 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2017,57(3):326-334

The paper addresses estimation of the Hurst exponent for time series of the hourly values of the Dst index for the period from 1957 to 2011. It is found that the Hurst exponent is 0.79–0.94 for yearly intervals and 0.8–1.0 for monthly intervals. Based on R/S graphs, the Dst cycles are identified; they range from 3–4 months to 2.2 years and from 8.5 to 22 years in length. It is shown that a Dst time series can be quite satisfactorily described by an α-stable Levy process.  相似文献   

Reduction of short-lived atmospheric pollutant emissions as an alternative strategy for climate-change moderation     

I. L. Karol’  A. A. Kiselev  E. L. Genikhovich  S. S. Chicherin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2013,49(5):461-478

The current state of studies on short-lived atmospheric constituents (greenhouse gases and aerosols) is reviewed. They have short atmospheric lifetimes (from several days to a few years) and can significantly affect the environment and climate. We propose reducing the emissions of these constituents as an alternative to the reduction of man-made carbon dioxide releases. We consider methane, hydrofluorocarbons, tropospheric ozone, and various aerosols (primarily, black carbon); discuss their atmospheric sources and destruction mechanisms; evaluate their content, atmospheric emissions, and climate impacts; and recommend efficient actions for the nearest future.  相似文献   

Pathways of marine debris derived from trajectories of Lagrangian drifters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Maximenko N  Hafner J  Niiler P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,65(1-3):51-62

Global set of trajectories of satellite-tracked Lagrangian drifters is used to study the dynamics of marine debris. A probabilistic model is developed to eliminate the bias in spatial distribution of drifter data due to heterogeneous deployments. Model experiments, simulating long-term evolution of initially homogeneous drifter array, reveal five main sites of drifter aggregation, located in the subtropics and maintained by converging Ekman currents. The paper characterizes the geography and structure of the collection regions and discusses factors that determine their dynamics. A new scale R(c)=(4k/|D|)(?) is introduced to characterize tracer distribution under competing effects of horizontal divergence D and diffusion k. Existence and locations of all five accumulation zones have been recently confirmed by direct measurements of microplastic at the sea surface.  相似文献   

Quasi-stationary striations in basin-scale oceanic circulation: vorticity balance from observations and eddy-resolving model     

Oleg V. Melnichenko  Nikolai A. Maximenko  Niklas Schneider  Hideharu Sasaki 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(3):653-666

Recently, prominent jet-like features of the ocean circulation, called striations, with a meridional scale of O(300–500 ;km) and extending for thousands of kilometers in length, have been detected in satellite and in situ observations and in high-resolution numerical models. In this paper, we study quasi-stationary striations, which are best seen in the multi-year time-averaged velocity fields. Using 1993–2002 mean dynamic ocean topography, satellite altimeter observations, and output of the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, the dynamics of the quasi-stationary striations in the eastern parts of the subtropical North and South Pacific are examined by assessing individual terms in the time-averaged equations of relative and potential vorticity. While non-linear effects are found to be essential in the dynamics of the striations, rejecting some linear hypotheses forwarded in the earlier studies, the relevance of the Rhines mechanism is not confirmed. Eddy flux does not act as a relative vorticity source for the striations. Using the potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics, we show that the time-mean PV is not conserved along the time-mean streamlines, and on the scale of the striations these changes in PV are largely induced by the eddy flux of layer thickness. The fact that eddy fluxes contribute to the striations’ time-mean PV budget suggests that the striations are not a kinematical artifact of time-averaging of westward-propagating eddies.  相似文献   

GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING AND MAPPING     

A. N. Kiselev 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2013,50(2):93-114

The author outlines general principles and methods of predictive or forecast mapping in the USSR, more specifically the use of maps in support of geographic forecasting, i.e., prediction of relationships involved in matter, energy, and other flows of ecosystem components. Maps are employed in all stages of geographic forecasting, particularly to identify spatial patterns which can be extrapolated in space or time and used to predict distributions that are difficult or impossible to determine directly, as well as to graphically portray these expected distributions. A scheme for classifying forecast maps in terms of their orientation in time and space is presented. Translated from: Prognoznoye blogeograficheskoye kartografirovaniye: regional'nyy aspekt, Moscow: Nauka, 1985, pp. 6-24.  相似文献   

Effect of leaf litter degradation and seasonality on D/H isotope ratios of n-alkane biomarkers     

Michael Zech  Nikolai Pedentchouk  Katharina Leiber  Slobodan B. Markovi? 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(17):4917-4928

During the last decade, compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis of plant leaf-wax and sedimentary n-alkyl lipids has become a promising tool for paleohydrological reconstructions. However, with the exception of several previous studies, there is a lack of knowledge regarding possible effects of early diagenesis on the δD values of n-alkanes. We therefore investigated the n-alkane patterns and δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from three different C3 higher plant species (Acer pseudoplatanus L., Fagus sylvatica L. and Sorbus aucuparia L.) that have been degraded in a field leaf litterbag experiment for 27 months.We found that after an initial increase of long-chain n-alkane masses (up to ∼50%), decomposition took place with mean turnover times of 11.7 months. Intermittently, the masses of mid-chain n-alkanes increased significantly during periods of highest total mass losses. Furthermore, initially high odd-over-even predominances (OEP) declined and long-chain n-alkane ratios like n-C₃₁/C₂₇ and n-C₃₁/C₂₉ started to converge to the value of 1. While bulk leaf litter became systematically D-enriched especially during summer seasons (by ∼8‰ on average over 27 months), the δD values of long-chain n-alkanes reveal no systematic overall shifts, but seasonal variations of up to 25‰ (Fagus, n-C₂₇, average ∼13‰).Although a partly contribution by leaf-wax n-alkanes by throughfall cannot be excluded, these findings suggest that a microbial n-alkane pool sensitive to seasonal variations of soil water δD rapidly builds up. We propose a conceptual model based on an isotope mass balance calculation that accounts for the decomposition of plant-derived n-alkanes and the build-up of microbial n-alkanes. Model results are in good agreement with measured n-alkane δD results. Since microbial ‘contamination’ is not necessarily discernible from n-alkane concentration patterns alone, care may have to be taken not to over-interpret δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Furthermore, since leaf-water is generally D-enriched compared to soil and lake waters, soil and water microbial n-alkane pools may help explain why soil and sediment n-alkanes are D-depleted compared to leaves.  相似文献   

Indices of the factors that form climate changes of different scales     

I. L. Karol’  A. A. Kiselev  V. A. Frol’kis 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2011,47(4):415-429

Radiative forcing, the global warming potential, and the recently proposed global temperature potential are widely used not only in scientific studies but also in a number of economic and political evaluations of the effects of an increase in the contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols and other factors that form climate and its changes. New indices have appeared, and, to calculate them, information is required on the quantitative characteristics of the climate system’s components—current and expected—within standard periods of 20, 100, and 500 years. The calculations of some of these indices and potentials require consideration for variations in the rate of energy exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface (ocean) within the indicated periods. This leads to a more general problem of analyzing the sensitivity of the climate system to external (radiative) forcing and its response to such a forcing for the conditions of both stationary (equilibrium) and nonstationary “greenhouse” climates. A brief review of the few existing studies of such a response is given.  相似文献   

A micro-Mössbauer study of chromites included in diamond and other mantle-related rocks     

Davide Lenaz  Henrik Skogby  Alla M. Logvinova  Nikolai V. Sobolev  Francesco Princivalle 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2013,40(9):671-679

Oxygen fugacity ( $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 ) is a fundamental but little known intensive variable in mantle processes. It influences the P/T position of a mantle solidus and the composition of mantle-derived melts and fluids and constrains mantle-core equilibria and a number of geophysical properties of the mantle. An important source of information on oxidation states is the ferric–ferrous iron ratio in mantle spinels. Since the magnetite component is low in mantle spinels, normal analytical errors translate into considerable $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 uncertainties. In this study, we analyzed the Fe³⁺–Fe_tot ratio of chromites present as inclusions in diamond and other mantle-related occurrences by point-source Mössbauer spectroscopy using single-crystal absorbers as well as conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy using powder absorbers. The studied spinels have been previously analyzed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe. The ferric–ferrous ratios found are normally similar to the different techniques apart from some samples where a large number of grains have been used for the analyses (powder absorbers). The general agreement between the different techniques allows us to conclude that the studied chromites are stoichiometric. However, conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy on powder absorbers should be conducted with great care, since the method requires a relatively large amount of sample material. Spinel frequently occurs as small grains, and the large number of crystals required may possess different degrees of oxidation/alteration and, consequently, different ferric–ferrous ratio leading to possible errors in the interpretation of the results.  相似文献   

Achromatic interfero-coronagraph with variable rotation shearing for studying extrasolar planets     

P. N. Frolov  I. I. Akhmetov  B. B. Shkurskii  I. V. Gvozdovskii  A. V. Kiselev  O. I. Korablev  A. V. Tavrov 《Solar System Research》2013,47(6):477-486

Direct observation of exoplanets will make it possible to clarify many principal questions connected both with extrasolar planets and planetary systems and to measure atmospheric spectra of the planets. Obtaining an exoplanet image not distorted by the light from a star is at the cutting edge of present-day optical technologies owing to the combination of tremendous brightness contrasts and small angular distances between the planet and star. To observe the exo-Earth, it is necessary to weaken the brightness of the parent star image by 9–10 orders of magnitude (in the optical and near-IR ranges). To compensate the influence of the atmosphere, ground-based (e.g., 8–10 m) telescopes intended for observing exoplanets are equipped with adaptive optics systems, the spatial and temporal resolutions of which are not yet sufficient. A meter-class space telescope equipped with a star coronagraph will make it possible to observe the nearest exoplanets. In this paper, an improved tool for star coronagraphy is considered, namely, the achromatic interferometric coronagraph with a variable rotational shear. It is fabricated according to the optical scheme of the common path interferometer for studying extrasolar planets by direct observations. Theoretical and experimental estimations for the main characteristics of the scheme were carried out. Laboratory experimental measurements were carried out on a coronagraph model.  相似文献   

Uranium isotopes in groundwater of the Mezen syneclise Vend     

A. I. Malov  G. P. Kiselev  G. P. Rudik  S. B. Zykov 《Water Resources》2009,36(6):689-698

Higher activities of U isotopes were recorded in hydrocarbonate freshwater on watersheds in the regions of occurrence of red Vend sandstones, Fe concentrations being minimal. The lowest activities of U isotopes and the highest Fe concentrations are typical of highly mineralized water under paleovalleys. The highest activities of U isotopes were recorded in the zones of hydrocarbonate freshwater intrusion into brine water on paleovalleys’ slopes. The mineral and fresh waters confined to the water-bearing complex of Vend sandstones can be used for drinking and balneological purposes.  相似文献