Holocene migration of oceanic front systems over the Conrad Rise in the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean     

Kota Katsuki  Minoru Ikehara  Yusuke Yokoyama  Masako Yamane  Boo‐Keun Khim 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(2):203-210

There has been limited previous research about Holocene climate variability in the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean. Here we examine centennial‐scale changes in diatom assemblages and stable isotopic ratios since 10 000 cal a BP in a high‐accumulation‐rate sediment core from the Conrad Rise. Although abundances of dominant diatom taxa (Fragilariopsis kerguelensis and Thalassiothrix antarctica) are comparatively constant, relative abundances of secondary taxa fluctuate. Before c. 9900 cal a BP, winter sea‐ice and cold water covered the Conrad Rise. Following deglaciation the sea‐ice retreated from the Conrad Rise, lagging that of the Atlantic and eastern Indian Sectors by about 1500 a. The Polar Front moved southward during the early Holocene optimum and north Antarctic Zone waters covered the Conrad Rise for about 650 a. After 9300 cal a BP, solar insolation strongly influenced sea surface temperature and primary productivity in the Southern Ocean. In the high‐latitude Indian Sector, productivity increased 1500 a after the onset of late Holocene neoglaciation. Periodic δ¹⁸O and cold‐water diatom taxa spikes (at intervals of 200 and 300–500 a, respectively) occurred after 9300 cal a BP, probably associated with solar activity. Fluctuations in short‐term sea surface temperature and cold‐water taxa are synchronous with changes in δD observed in an east Antarctic ice core. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA     

Il‐Won Jung  Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2011,25(2):258-277

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Prediction of depth‐integrated fluxes of suspended sediment in the Amazon River: particle aggregation as a complicating factor     

J. Bouchez  F. Métivier  M. Lupker  L. Maurice  M. Perez  J. Gaillardet  C. France‐Lanord 《水文研究》2011,25(5):778-794

Large rivers have been previously shown to be vertically heterogeneous in terms of suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, as a result of sorting of suspended solids. Therefore, the spatial distribution of suspended sediments within the river section has to be known to assess the riverine sedimentary flux. Numerous studies have focused on the vertical distribution of SPM in a river channel from a theoretical or experimental perspective, but only a few were conducted so far on very large rivers. Moreover, a technique for the prediction of depth‐integrated suspended sediment fluxes in very large rivers based on sediment transport dynamics has not yet been proposed. We sampled river water along depth following several vertical profiles, at four locations on the Amazon River and its main tributaries and at two distinct water stages. Depending on the vertical profile, a one‐ to fivefold increase in SPM concentration is observed from river channel surface to bottom, which has a significant impact on the ‘depth‐averaged’ SPM concentration. For each cross section, a so‐called Rouse profile quantitatively accounts for the trend of SPM concentration increase with depth, and a representative Rouse number can be measured for each cross section. However, the prediction of this Rouse number would require the knowledge of the settling velocity of particles, which is dependent on the state of aggregation affecting particles within the river. We demonstrate that in the Amazon River, particle aggregation significantly influences the Rouse number and renders its determination impossible from grain‐size distribution data obtained in the lab. However, in each cross section, the Rouse profile obtained from the fit of the data can serve as a basis to model, at first order, the SPM concentration at any position in the river cross section. This approach, combined with acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) water velocity transects, allows us to accurately estimate the depth‐integrated instantaneous sediment flux. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A generalized additive model for the spatial distribution of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees     

J. I. Lpez‐Moreno  D. Nogus‐Bravo 《水文研究》2005,19(16):3167-3176

A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to model the spatial distribution of snow depth in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Statistically significant non‐linear relationships were found between distinct location and topographical variables and the average depth of the April snowpack at 76 snow poles from 1985 to 2000. The joint effect of the predictor variables explained more than 73% of the variance of the dependent variable. The performance of the model was assessed by applying a number of quantitative approaches to the residuals from a cross‐validation test. The relatively low estimated errors and the possibility of understanding the processes that control snow accumulation, through the response curves of each independent variable, indicate that GAMs may be a useful tool for interpolating local snow depth or other climate parameters. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stone run (block stream) formation in the Falkland Islands over several cold stages,deduced from cosmogenic isotope (10Be and 26Al) surface exposure dating     

Peter Wilson  Michael J. Bentley  Christoph Schnabel  Richard Clark  Sheng Xu 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(5):461-473

Cosmogenic isotope (¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al) surface exposure dating has been applied to valley‐axis and hillslope stone runs (relict periglacial block streams) and their source outcrops in the Falkland Islands, South Atlantic. The data indicate that stone runs are considerably older landforms than previously envisaged and afford no evidence that they are a product of the Last Glacial Maximum; the samples range in apparent ¹⁰Be age from 42k to 731k yr BP, but some of these are minima. The results indicate that valley‐axis stone runs may be up to 700–800k yr old, have simple exposure histories and are composite landforms that developed over several cold stages. Analyses of some hillslope and outcrop samples also demonstrate simple exposure histories with ¹⁰Be ages from 42k to 658k yr BP. In contrast, isotopic ratios from other hillslope and outcrop samples reveal they have had a complex exposure history involving periods of burial or shielding; the samples range in ¹⁰Be age from 59k to 569k yr BP and these are regarded as minimum age estimates. Larger stone runs may be older than smaller runs and there is a possibility that stone runs older than 800k yr exist in other parts of the Falklands. The assertion that glaciation in the Falklands was restricted to the highest uplands is supported by the data, and the potential for age determination of other boulder‐strewn and bedrock landforms, using cosmogenic isotope analysis, in order to extend the geochronology of Quaternary events and processes is noted. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sediment and particulate phosphorus characteristics in grassed waterways from row crop corn and alfalfa fields collected by manual University of Exeter samplers and automatic sampling     

John C. Panuska  Laura Ward Good  Peter A. Vadas  Dennis L. Busch  Asli Ozkaynak 《水文研究》2011,25(15):2329-2338

Phosphorus (P) export from agricultural lands above known threshold levels can result in adverse impacts to receiving water quality. Phosphorus loss occurs in dissolved and sediment‐bound, or particulate phosphorous (PP), forms, with the latter often dominating losses from row‐cropped systems. To target practices, land managers need good computer models and model developers need good monitoring data. Sediment monitoring data (e.g. radiometric finger printing and sediment P sorption capacity) can help identify sediment source areas and improve models, but require more sediment mass than is typically obtained by automatic sampling. This study compares a simple suspended sediment sampler developed at the University of Exeter (UE) with automatic sampling in intermittent channels draining corn and alfalfa fields. The corn field had a greater runoff coefficient (27%) than alfalfa (11%). No differences were found in enrichment ratios (sediment constituent/soil constituent) in PP (PP_ER) or percent loss on ignition (LOI_ER) between paired UE samplers on corn. The median LOI_ER for the UE samplers (1·9%) did not differ significantly (p > 0·13) from the automatic sampler (2·0%). The PP_ER from the UE samplers was on average 20% lower than the automatic samplers. A correlation (r² = 0·75) was found between sediment PP and % LOI from automatic samplers and UE samplers for particles < 50 µm, while for > 50 µm PP concentration did not change with changes in % LOI. Sediment ammonium‐oxalate extractable metals were similarly related to LOI, with the strongest correlation for iron (r² = 0·71) and magnesium (r² = 0·70). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge     

Huang‐jia Huang  Shin‐jen Cheng  Jet‐chau Wen  Ju‐huang Lee 《水文研究》2008,22(13):2075-2085

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On bandwidth selection for nonparametric estimation in flood frequency analysis     

A. Quintela‐del‐Río 《水文研究》2011,25(5):671-678

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Mycological evidence of coprophagy from the feces of an Alaskan Late Glacial mammoth     

Bas van Geel  R. Dale Guthrie  Jens G. Altmann  Peter Broekens  Ian D. Bull  Fiona L. Gill  Boris Jansen  Aline M. Nieman  Barbara Gravendeel 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(17-18):2289-2303

Dung from a mammoth was preserved under frozen conditions in Alaska. The mammoth lived during the early part of the Late Glacial interstadial (ca 12,300 BP). Microfossils, macroremains and ancient DNA from the dung were studied and the chemical composition was determined to reconstruct both the paleoenvironment and paleobiology of this mammoth. Pollen spectra are dominated by Poaceae, Artemisia and other light-demanding taxa, indicating an open, treeless landscape (‘mammoth steppe’). Fruits and seeds support this conclusion. The dung consists mainly of cyperaceous stems and leaves, with a minor component of vegetative remains of Poaceae. Analyses of fragments of the plastid rbcL gene and trnL intron and nrITS1 region, amplified from DNA extracted from the dung, supplemented the microscopic identifications. Many fruit bodies with ascospores of the coprophilous fungus Podospora conica were found inside the dung ball, indicating that the mammoth had eaten dung. The absence of bile acids points to mammoth dung. This is the second time that evidence for coprophagy of mammoths has been derived from the presence of fruit bodies of coprophilous fungi in frozen dung. Coprophagy might well have been a common habit of mammoths. Therefore, we strongly recommend that particular attention should be given to fungal remains in future fossil dung studies.  相似文献   

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras     

I. Westerberg  J.‐L. Guerrero  J. Seibert  K. J. Beven  S. Halldin 《水文研究》2011,25(4):603-613

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献