Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Torben Koenigk  Laurent Brodeau  Rune Grand Graversen  Johannes Karlsson  Gunilla Svensson  Michael Tjernström  Ulrika Willén  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2719-2743

The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.  相似文献   

The extragalactic submillimetre population: predictions for the SCUBA Half-Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES)     

Eelco van Kampen  Will J. Percival  Miller Crawford  James S. Dunlop  Susie E. Scott  Neil Bevis  Seb Oliver  Frazer Pearce  Scott T. Kay  Enrique Gaztañaga  David H. Hughes  Itziar Aretxaga 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(2):469-480

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Regions of Potential Existence of Free Water (Ice) in the Near-Surface Martian Ground: Results from theMars OdysseyHigh-Energy Neutron Detector (HEND)     

R. O. Kuzmin  E. V. Zabalueva  I. G. Mitrofanov  M. L. Litvak  W. V. Boynton  R. S. Saunders 《Solar System Research》2004,38(1):1-11

We report results of the analysis of the data on global mapping of neutron fluxes from the Martian surface, which have been obtained during the first ten months of measurements carried out by the Russian high-energy neutron detector HEND mounted aboard the AmericanMars Odysseyorbiter. This analysis allowed us to separate regions where free water (in ice form) prevailed in the surface layer (with a thickness of up to 2 m) of the Martian ground from regions where physically and chemically bound ground water was most likely to be the dominant form of water. The global mapping of regions with increased ice content in the ground-surface layer revealed a direct correlation with regions of polygonal terrains morphologically similar to terrestrial polygonal forms of permafrost origin. The potential content of bound water forms in the ground of circumpolar areas of the planet is also estimated.  相似文献   

Search for Traces of Chemically Bound Water in the Martian Surface Layer Based on HEND Measurements onboard the 2001 Mars Odyssey Spacecraft     

Basilevsky  A. T.  Litvak  M. L.  Mitrofanov  I. G.  Boynton  W. V.  Saunders  R. S.  Head  J. W. 《Solar System Research》2003,37(5):387-397

Analysis of the distribution of the epithermal and fast neutron fluxes from the Martian surface within the ±60° latitude zone measured by the High-Energy Neutron Detector (HEND) from mid-February through mid-June 2002 has revealed regional neutron-flux variations outside the zones of climatic effects, which appear to be attributable to the presence of chemically bound water. With the exception of the epithermal neutron fluxes in Arabia and southwest of Olympus Mons (Medusae Fossae), these variations show no correlation with the geologic structure of the terrain at the level of global geologic maps. The lack of such a correlation probably implies that to the formation depth of the epithermal neutron flux (1–2 m), let alone the fast neutron flux (20–30 cm), much of Mars is covered by a surface material that bears little relation in composition to local bedrocks. Clearly, this is an aeolian cover whose fine-grain component was mixed by dust storms in the geologic time on the scale of large regions. The decrease in the flux of epithermal neutrons in Arabia and southwest of Olympus Mons (Medusae Fossae) appears to be attributable to an enhanced concentration of materials containing chemically bound water (clay minerals, palagonite, hydroxides, and hydrosalts) in the surface layers of these regions.  相似文献   

Maximum-likelihood astrometric geometry calibration of interferometric telescopes: application to the Very Small Array     

Klaus Maisinger  M. P. Hobson  Richard D. E. Saunders  Keith J. B. Grainge 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(3):800-808

Interferometers require accurate determination of the array configuration in order to produce reliable observations. A method is presented for finding the maximum-likelihood estimate of the telescope geometry, and of other instrumental parameters, astrometrically from the visibility timelines obtained from observations of celestial calibrator sources. The method copes systematically with complicated and unconventional antenna and array geometries, with electronic bandpasses that are different for each antenna radiometer, and with low signal-to-noise ratios for the calibrators. The technique automatically focuses on the geometry errors that are most significant for astronomical observation. We apply this method to observations made with the Very Small Array and constrain some 450 telescope parameters, such as the antenna positions, effective observing frequencies and correlator amplitudes and phaseshifts; this requires only ∼1 h of CPU time on a typical workstation.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: galaxy luminosity functions per spectral type     

Darren S. Madgwick  Ofer Lahav  Ivan K. Baldry  Carlton M. Baugh  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Peder Norberg  John A. Peacock  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,333(1):133-144

We calculate the optical b _J luminosity function (LF) of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) for different subsets defined by their spectral properties. These spectrally selected subsets are defined using a new parameter, η , which is a linear combination of the first two projections derived from a Principal Component Analysis. This parameter η identifies the average emission- and absorption-line strength in the galaxy rest frame spectrum, and hence is a useful indicator of the present star formation. We use a total of 75 000 galaxies in our calculations, chosen from a sample of high signal-to-noise ratio, low-redshift galaxies observed before 2001 January. We find that there is a systematic steepening of the faint-end slope ( α ) as one moves from passive  ( α =-0.54)  to active  ( α =-1.50)  star-forming galaxies, and that there is also a corresponding faintening of the rest frame characteristic magnitude   M *-5 log₁₀( h )  (from −19.6 to −19.2). We also show that the Schechter function provides a poor fit to the quiescent (Type 1) LF for very faint galaxies  [ M _{b J}-5 log₁₀( h )  fainter than −16.0], perhaps suggesting the presence of a significant dwarf population. The LFs presented here give a precise confirmation of the trends seen previously in a much smaller preliminary 2dFGRS sample, and in other surveys. We also present a new procedure for determining self-consistent k -corrections, and investigate possible fibre-aperture biases.  相似文献   

Parameter constraints for flat cosmologies from cosmic microwave background and 2dFGRS power spectra     

Will J. Percival  Will Sutherland  John A. Peacock  Carlton M. Baugh  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Stephen Moody  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,337(3):1068-1080

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The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peder Norberg  Carlton M. Baugh  Ed Hawkins  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Ofer Lahav  Shaun Cole  Carlos S. Frenk  Ivan Baldry  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  John A. Peacock  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,332(4):827-838

We investigate the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type using the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS). Spectral types are assigned using the principal-component analysis of Madgwick et al. We divide the sample into two broad spectral classes: galaxies with strong emission lines ('late types') and more quiescent galaxies ('early types'). We measure the clustering in real space, free from any distortion of the clustering pattern owing to peculiar velocities, for a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation functions of both spectral types are well described by a power law for transverse separations in the range  2<( σ / h ^-1 Mpc)<15  , with a marginally steeper slope for early types than late types. Both early and late types have approximately the same dependence of clustering strength on luminosity, with the clustering amplitude increasing by a factor of ∼2.5 between L * and 4 L *. At all luminosities, however, the correlation function amplitude for the early types is ∼50 per cent higher than that of the late types. These results support the view that luminosity, and not type, is the dominant factor in determining how the clustering strength of the whole galaxy population varies with luminosity.  相似文献   

Fourier analysis of luminosity-dependent galaxy clustering     

Will J. Percival  Licia Verde  John A. Peacock 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(2):645-653

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Search for causes of the low epithermal neutron flux anomaly in the Arabia Terra region (Mars)     

A. T. Basilevsky  A. V. Rodin  J. Raitala  G. Neukum  S. Werner  A. S. Kozyrev  A. B. Sanin  I. G. Mitrofanov  J. W. Head  W. Boynton  R. S. Saunders 《Solar System Research》2006,40(5):355-374

A geologic analysis of 274 images acquired by the high-resolution MOC camera onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft within the Arabia Terra low neutron flux anomaly (which is indicative of an anomalously high abundance of hydrogen: up to 16 wt % of the equivalent amount of water) was performed. Correlation between the enhanced abundance of equivalent water with the presence of dust on the surface was found. Since dust plays a key role in condensation of water from the atmosphere, we suppose that the anomalies could result from the retention of atmospheric moisture. To analyze this suggestion, we performed a theoretical modeling that allowed us to map the planetary-scale distributions of several meteorological parameters responsible for the atmospheric moisture condensation. Two antipodal regions coinciding rather well with the Arabia Terra anomaly and the geographically antipodal anomaly southwest of Olympus Mons were found in the maps. This suggests that the anomalies are rather recent than ancient formations. They were probably formed by a sink of moisture from the atmosphere in the areas where present meteorological conditions support this sink. Geological parameters, primarily the presence of dust, only promote this process. We cannot exclude the possibility that the Martian cryosphere, rather than the atmosphere, supplied the studied anomalies with moisture during their formation: the thermodynamic conditions in the anomaly areas could block the moisture flux from the Martian interior in the upper regolith layer. The moisture coming from the atmosphere or from the interior is likely held as chemically bound water entering into the structure of water-bearing minerals (probably, hydrated magnesium sulfates) directly from the vapor; or the moisture precipitates as frost, penetrates into microfissures, and then is bound in minerals. Probably, another geologic factor—the magnesium sulfate abundance—works in the Arabia Terra anomaly.  相似文献