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21.
Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The Carpathian Mountains region cover areas from seven countries of central and southeastern Europe, the mountain chain having major regional influences on the temperate climate, specific to latitudes between 43°N and 49°N. In order to identify changes in the annual temperature extremes, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test has been applied to several thermal indices, recommended by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (climate of the Carpathian region) for the period 1961–2010. The results show decreasing trends in cold-related indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. The trend patterns are consistent over the region, i.e., there are no mixed trends for a given index. Regional differences in climate extreme trends within the Carpathian region are related to altitude, rather than latitude. The number of summer days is increasing over the entire area, while the number of tropical nights presents upward trends mainly at lower elevations. The Warm Spell Duration Index presents upward trends over 60 % of the region. The (annual) East Atlantic pattern shows strong correlations with the warm-related indices. Our results are in agreement with previous temperature-related studies in the region.  相似文献   
22.

In this work, we measure the performance of the fixed stress split algorithm for the immiscible water-oil flow coupled with linear poromechanics. The two-phase flow equations are solved on general hexahedral elements using the multipoint flux mixed finite element method whereas the poromechanics equations are discretized using the conforming Galerkin method. We introduce a rigorous calculation of the update in poroelastic properties during the iterative solution of the coupled system equations. The effects of the coupling parameter on the performance of the fixed stress algorithm is demonstrated in two field studies: the Frio oil reservoir and the Cranfield injection site.

  相似文献   
23.
How do we understand national climate change politics in the United States? Using a methodological innovation in network analysis, this paper analyzes discussions about the issue within the US Congress. Through this analysis, the ideological relationships among speakers providing Congressional testimony on the issue of climate change are mapped. For the first time, issue stances of actors are systematically aggregated in order to measure coalitions and consensus among political actors in American climate politics in a relational way. Our findings show how consensus formed around the economic implications of regulating greenhouse gases and the policy instrument that should do the regulating. The paper is separated into three sections. First, we review the ways scholars have looked at climate change policymaking in the United States, paying particular attention to those who have looked at the issue within the US Congress. Next, we present analysis of statements made during Congressional hearings on climate change over a four-year period. Our analysis demonstrates how a polarized ideological actor space in the 109th Congress transforms into a more consensual actor landscape in the 110th Congress, which is significantly less guided by partisan differences. This paper concludes by discussing how these findings help us understand shifting positions within American climate politics and the implications of these findings.  相似文献   
24.
An ultraviolet spectroscopic study at 25°C is used to determine the stoichiometric stability constant of CuCO30 (βCuCO30) over a range of ionic strengths; extrapolation to zero ionic strength provides a thermodynamic constant (log β0CuCO30 = 6.89). At 0.69 m ionic strength, log βCuCO30) is 6.33.This study provides the first experimental evidence for the existence of CuHCO3+. At 0.69 m ionic strength, log βCuHCO3+ is 2.77.The ultraviolet molal absorptivity spectra for the two complexes are also determined. The spectrum for CuCO30 consists of a single band centered at 276.5 nm and was described well by a Gaussian function. The spectrum of CuHCO3+ consists of at least two overlapping bands.Side reactions which might affect the data interpretation were included in the analysis of the results. The effects of the Cu(II) hydrolysis reactions were accounted for by using data from previous work, and possible effects due to copper-organic species were eliminated by a subtraction procedure.  相似文献   
25.
Earlier piston-cylinder experiments in our laboratory produced a collection of mantle melting run products at 1.0 GPa that have now been analyzed by ion probe for selected REE, Ti, Cr, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, and Nb. Natural starting materials were used and experiments were run in graphite-lined Pt capsules with the melt separated from the residual minerals into a layer of vitreous carbon spheres (VCS) to circumvent quench modification. The glass phase in 18 run products, representing melt percentages of ∼2-20 wt%, yielded excellent data that were inverted to yield the first estimates ever of clinopyroxene/melt distribution coefficients, Ds, derived from direct peridotite partial melting experiments. Uncertainties were estimated with a Monte Carlo method.For the REE and Y, these Ds were then compared to Ds calculated with the widely-used model of Wood and Blundy (1997) and the two sets overlap at the ±2σ level in 123 of 128 cases (∼96%). This indicates to us that: 1) the experiments analyzed here are well equilibrated with respect to major and trace element distributions, thus supporting the efficacy of the VCS technique and its variation involving diamond (e.g., Baker and Stolper, “Determining the composition of high-pressure mantle melts using diamond aggregates” [1994], Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta58, 2811-2827); 2) the model of Wood and Blundy (1997), calibrated largely on the basis of large melt fraction, inverse- or sandwich-type experiments, describes REE and Y partitioning during peridotite melting well, even very near the solidus; and it suggests that the cpx/melt Ds derived here for other elements, not modeled by the Wood and Blundy formulation, are probably also correct for peridotite melting to within their ±2σ uncertainties. Dsp/liq and Dcpx/liq values for Cr calculated directly from electron microprobe data decrease by about a factor of five with increasing temperature and melt percentage.The degree to which our experiments appear to have equilibrated seems at odds with recent measurements of the diffusivities of REE in diopside which suggest that relatively small percentages of our starting mineral grains should have equilibrated diffusively. Instead, we suggest that equilibration occurs much more rapidly through the processes of recrystallization and grain coarsening, accomplished through dissolution and reprecipitation. This suggestion is supported by the observation that our final grain sizes are typically 5-10 times larger than the ∼10 μm starting sizes, indicating that substantial mass transfer occurred in our experiments, probably mediated by the melt phase in which diffusion is faster.  相似文献   
26.
Reprocessing of industry deep seismic reflection data (Ramnicu Sarat and Braila profiles) from the SE Carpathian foreland of Romania provides important new constraints on geodynamic models for the origin of the intermediate depth Vrancea Seismogenic Zone (VSZ). Mantle (70–200 km) earthquakes of the VSZ are characterized by high magnitudes (greater than 6.5), frequent occurrence rates (approximately 25 years), and confinement in a very narrow (30 × 70 × 200 km3) near vertical zone atypical for a Wadati–Benioff plane, located in front of the orogen. These two deep (20 s) seismic reflection profiles (70 km length across the foreland) reveal (1) a high-amplitude, gently east-dipping reflection across most of the section from what we interpret to be the Moho at  15 s (40–42 km) on the Ramnicu Sarat line to  16 s (47–48 km) on the Braila line, (2) a thick sedimentary cover increasing in thickness from east (1 s;  800 m) to west (7.5 s; 14 km), (3) an eastward increase in crustal thickness from 38 km (near VSZ) to  45 km, (4) seismic and topographic evidence for a newly imaged, possibly seismically active basement fault with a surface offset of 30 m observed on the Ramnicu Sarat line, (5) a lack of notable west-dipping structures in the crust and across the Moho, and (6) variable displacements on Peceneaga–Camena Fault of  5 km at Moho and  200 m at the basement–sedimentary cover contact.These observations appear to argue against recent models for west-dipping subduction of oceanic lithosphere at or in the vicinity of the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone given the lack of west-dipping fabrics in the lower crust and across the crust–mantle boundary. Consequently, one possible explanation for the geodynamic origin of VSZ could be partial delamination of the continental lithosphere in an intra-plate setting along a sub-horizontal lithospheric interface in the Carpathian hinterland that likely involves remnant lithospheric coupling between the crust and uppermost mantle in the foreland.  相似文献   
27.
Snow pack in the Romanian Carpathians under changing climatic conditions   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Snow pack characteristics and duration are considered to be key indicators of climate change in mountain regions, especially during the winter season (herein considered to last from the 1st of November to the 30th of April). Deviations recorded in the regime of the main explanatory variables of snow pack changes (i.e. temperature and precipitation) offer useful information on winter climate variability, in the conditions of the winter warming trend already seen in some areas of the Romanian Carpathians. The present work focuses on changes and trends in snow pack characteristics and its related parameters, registered at the 15 weather stations located in the alpine, sub-alpine and forest belts in all the three Romanian Carpathian branches (>1,000 m) over the 1961–2003 period. Changes in the snow pack regime were investigated in relation with the modifications of winter temperature and precipitation having been detected mostly at the end of the twentieth century. A winter standardized index was calculated to group winters over the 43-year period into severity classes and detect the respective changes. Links between the number of snow cover days and seasonal NAO index were also statistically analysed in this study. The general results show large regional and altitudinal variations and the complex character of the climate in the Romanian Carpathians, leading to the idea of an ongoing warming process associated with a lower incidence of snow cover, affecting to a large extent the forested mountain areas located below 1,600–1,700 m altitude. Also negative and weak correlations were found, particularly over the December–March interval, between the number of snow cover days and seasonal NAO index values.  相似文献   
28.
Predictions of Energy and Helicity in Four Major Eruptive Solar Flares   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In order to better understand the solar genesis of interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), we model the magnetic and topological properties of four large eruptive solar flares and relate them to observations. We use the three-dimensional Minimum Current Corona model (Longcope, 1996, Solar Phys. 169, 91) and observations of pre-flare photospheric magnetic field and flare ribbons to derive values of reconnected magnetic flux, flare energy, flux rope helicity, and orientation of the flux-rope poloidal field. We compare model predictions of those quantities to flare and MC observations, and within the estimated uncertainties of the methods used find the following: The predicted model reconnection fluxes are equal to or lower than the reconnection fluxes inferred from the observed ribbon motions. Both observed and model reconnection fluxes match the MC poloidal fluxes. The predicted flux-rope helicities match the MC helicities. The predicted free energies lie between the observed energies and the estimated total flare luminosities. The direction of the leading edge of the MC’s poloidal field is aligned with the poloidal field of the flux rope in the AR rather than the global dipole field. These findings compel us to believe that magnetic clouds associated with these four solar flares are formed by low-corona magnetic reconnection during the eruption, rather than eruption of pre-existing structures in the corona or formation in the upper corona with participation of the global magnetic field. We also note that since all four flares occurred in active regions without significant pre-flare flux emergence and cancelation, the energy and helicity that we find are stored by shearing and rotating motions, which are sufficient to account for the observed radiative flare energy and MC helicity.  相似文献   
29.
30.
Comparison of surface and borehole locations of induced seismicity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Monitoring of induced microseismic events has become an important tool in hydraulic fracture diagnostics and understanding fractured reservoirs in general. We compare microseismic event and their uncertainties using data sets obtained with surface and downhole arrays of receivers. We first model the uncertainties to understand the effect of different acquisition geometries on location accuracy. For a vertical array of receivers in a single monitoring borehole, we find that the largest part of the final location uncertainty is related to estimation of the backazimuth. This is followed by uncertainty in the vertical position and radial distance from the receivers. For surface monitoring, the largest uncertainty lies in the vertical position due to the use of only a single phase (usually P‐wave) in the estimation of the event location. In surface monitoring results, lateral positions are estimated robustly and are not sensitive to the velocity model. In this case study, we compare event location solutions from two catalogues of microseismic events; one from a downhole array and the second from a surface array of 1C geophone. Our results show that origin time can be reliably used to find matching events between the downhole and surface catalogues. The locations of the corresponding events display a systematic shift consistent with a poorly calibrated velocity model for downhole dataset. For this case study, locations derived from surface monitoring have less scatter in both vertical and horizontal directions.  相似文献   
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