Indian summer monsoon onset vortex formation during recent decades     

R. Deepa  Jai Ho Oh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):237-249

This study investigates the decrease in the frequency of onset vortex of summer monsoon during recent decades using the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (1982–2011) data. Onset vortices are known to occur over the Arabian Sea mini warm pool where the sea surface temperature peaks just before the onset of monsoon. Even though the Arabian Sea mini warm pool intensifies during the recent decades, they are not seen as a regular feature. It is found from the analysis of irrotational and non-divergent wind component at 850 and 200 hPa that during the recent decades, convergent winds dominate at upper levels and divergent winds at lower levels which inhibits convection. Moreover, the cyclonic shear vorticity shows a decrease in the recent decades which tend to reduce the boundary layer moisture convergence and lower tropospheric humidity which is an important component for the initiation of a cyclonic system. The recent decades are characterized by weak convection due to the presence of strong northerlies and descending motion at lower levels in the southeast Arabian Sea. The response of atmospheric circulation to the interdecadal variations in the warm pool and the corresponding decrease in the frequency of onset vortex formation is analyzed in detail.  相似文献   

Discharge prediction using hydraulic characteristics of mean velocity equation     

Tai Ho Choo  Soo Kwon Chae  Hyeon Cheol Yoon  Yeon Moon Choo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(2):675-683

Discharge is an important factor in river design for water utilization, water control and hydraulic structures; therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge is required. At present, a rating curve depicting the relationship between a stage and discharge is used to calculate the discharge from river systems. Although the rating curve has an advantage in that it can predict and use the discharge during the flood season in which the measurement is difficult, there is room for improvement as it does not reflect the hydraulic characteristics of rivers. Therefore, in this study, discharge was predicted using the convenient calculation method with empirical mediating variables of the Manning and Chezy equations which were proposed by the author’s previous research as a new methodology for estimating discharge in an open channel. This was proven, based on the data measured in a meandering open channel system in a lab at the Mississippi River in the US and at the Columbia Del Dique Canal, and an accuracy level at a coefficient of 0.8 was demonstrated. Thus, this method, which reflects the hydraulic characteristics and predicts the discharge in a simple manner, is expected to be convenient in practice.  相似文献   

A GNSS interference identification using an adaptive cascading IIR notch filter     

Chang Ho Kang  Sun Young Kim  Chan Gook Park 《GPS Solutions》2014,18(4):605-613

A low-complexity time-domain approach for global navigation satellite systems is proposed to detect and identify single-tone, multi-tone, swept continuous wave interference (CWI) and band-limited white Gaussian noise (BLWN). An adaptive notch filter and adaptive cascading filter structure are employed to identify the type of interference signals. The number of the cascading stages is selected by comparing the total power in receiver bandpass, and after, passing the adaptive notch filter. For this reason, the proposed filter structure is more efficient in identifying and mitigating interference signals than the conventional filter structure. In addition, the automatic gain control gain is used to detect the existence of continuous wave interference. The performance of the interference detection and identification method is evaluated for the cases of GPS signal in the presence of single-tone, multi-tone, swept CWI and BLWN.  相似文献   

Graded-Density Reservoirs for Accessing High Stress Low Temperature Material States   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Raymond F. Smith  K. Thomas Lorenz  Darwin Ho  Bruce A. Remington  Alex Hamza  John Rogers  Stephen Pollaine  Seokwoo Jeon  Yun-Suk Nam  J. Kilkenny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,307(1-3):269-272

In recently developed laser-driven shockless compression experiments an ablatively driven shock in a primary target is transformed into a ramp compression wave in a secondary target via unloading followed by stagnation across an intermediate vacuum gap. Current limitations on the achievable peak longitudinal stresses are limited by the ability of shaping the temporal profile of the ramp compression pulse. We report on new techniques using graded density reservoirs for shaping the loading profile and extending these techniques to high peak pressures.  相似文献   

Contrast in life histories of exploited fishes and ecosystem structures in coastal waters off west Canada and east Korea     

Gordon A. McFarlane  Chang Ik Zhang  Jacquelynne R. King  Suam Kim  Richard J. Beamish  Jae Ho Oh 《Ocean Science Journal》2009,44(1):43-60

By reviewing the history of fishery exploitation in the coastal waters of west Canada and east Korea, related with contrasting life history strategies of the dominant species, the fishery management challenges that each country would face in the upcoming decades were outlined. In the ecosystem of the Canadian western coastal waters, the dominant oceanographic feature is the coastal upwelling domain off the west coast of Vancouver Island, the northernmost extent of the California Current System in the eastern North Pacific. In the marine ecosystem of the eastern coasts of Korea (the Japan/East Sea), a major oceanographic feature is the Tsushima Warm Current, a branch of the Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific. Fishes in the Canadian ecosystem are dominated by demersal, long-lived species such as flatfish, rockfish, sablefish, and halibut. During summer, migratory pelagic species such as Pacific hake, Pacific salmon, and recently Pacific sardine, move into this area to feed. In the late 1970s, Canada declared jurisdiction for 200 miles from their coastline, and major fisheries species in Canadian waters have been managed with a quota system. The overall fishing intensity off the west coast of Vancouver Island has been relatively moderate compared to Korean waters. Fishes in the ecosystem of the eastern Korean waters are dominated by short-lived pelagic and demersal fish. Historically, Korea has shared marine resources in this area with neighbouring countries, but stock assessments and quotas have only recently (since the late-1990s) been implemented for some major species. In the Korean ecosystem, fisheries can be described as intensive, and many stocks have been rated as overfished. The two ecosystems responded differently to climate impacts such as regime shifts under different exploitation histories. In the future, both countries will face the challenge of global warming and subsequent impacts on ecosystems, necessitating developing adaptive fisheries management plans. The challenges will be contrasting for the two countries: Canada will need to conserve fish populations, while Korea will need to focus on rebuilding depleted fish populations.  相似文献   

Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System     

Yu-Li Wang  Liang-Cheng Chang  Fei Liu  Yen-Te Ho  Tzu Bin Wang  Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh  Jui-Pin Tsai 《Ground water》2022,60(4):518-529

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.  相似文献   

On a novel approach to forecast sparse rare events: applications to Parkfield earthquake prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ho  Chih-Hsiang  Bhaduri  Moinak 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):669-699

Natural Hazards - Rare events are plentiful in nature and most of them have devastating consequences on human lives and property. Modeling such events is intrinsically challenging due to their very...  相似文献   

Potential impacts of northeastern Eurasian snow cover on generation of dust storms in northwestern China during spring     

Yun Gon Lee  Chang-Hoi Ho  Jhoon Kim  Jinwon Kim 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):721-733

The effects of the northeastern Eurasian snow cover on the frequency of spring dust storms in northwestern China have been examined for the period 1979–2007. Averaged over all 43 stations in northwestern China, a statistically significant relationship has been found between dust-storm frequency (DSF) and Eurasian snow-water equivalent (SWE) during spring: mean DSF of 7.4 and 3.3 days for years of high- and low SWE, respectively. Further analyses reveal that positive SWE anomalies enhance the meridional gradients of the lower tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights, thereby strengthening westerly jets and zonal wind shear over northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China, the regions of major dust sources. The anomalous atmospheric circulation corresponding to the Eurasian SWE anomalies either reinforces or weakens atmospheric baroclinicity and cyclogenesis, according to the sign of the anomaly, to affect the spring DSF. This study suggests that Eurasian SWE anomalies can be an influential factor of spring DSF in northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China.  相似文献   

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chun Kit Ho  Ed Hawkins  Len Shaffrey  Fiona M. Underwood 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):917-935

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献