Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking     

Yongli He  Jianping Huang  Mingxia Ji 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3267-3279

The impact of asymmetric thermal forcing associated with land–sea distribution on interdecadal variation in large-scale circulation and blocking was investigated using observations and the coupled model intercomparison project outputs. A land–sea index (LSI) was defined to measure asymmetric zonal thermal forcing; the index changed from a negative to a positive anomaly in the 1980s. In the positive phase of the LSI, the 500 hPa geopotential height decreased in the polar regions and increased in the mid-latitudes. The tropospheric planetary wave activity also became weaker and exerted less easterly forcing on the westerly wind. These circulation changes were favorable for westerly wind acceleration and reduced blocking. In the Atlantic, the duration of blocking decreased by 38 % during the positive LSI phase compared with that during the negative phase; in Europe, the number of blocking persisting for longer than 10 days during the positive LSI phase was only half of the number during the negative phase. The observed surface air temperature anomaly followed a distinctive “cold ocean/warm land” (COWL) pattern, which provided an environment that reduced, or destroyed, the resonance forcing of topography and was unfavorable for the development and persistence of blocking. In turn, the responses of the westerly and blocking could further enhance continental warming, which would strengthen the “cold ocean/warm land” pattern. This positive feedback amplified regional warming in the context of overall global warming.  相似文献   

新郑矿区地热资源潜能分析与保护建议     

朱永飞  ;徐连利  ;景学建  ;樊振丽  ;石勇丽 《中国煤炭地质》2014,(9):43-48

基于新郑矿区以平均每年0.0813×108m3的涌水量向地表排放热水,造成的地热资源损失和污染环境的现实,在分析地温地质条件基础上,利用热储资源量公式、卡明斯基公式和弹性储存量公式,分别计算了矿山开采前和开采后不同类型地热资源量,并对当前矿区地热潜能进行了评估。在此基础上,提出了选择煤层底板加固技术,保持岩溶裂隙水一定的水位、减少地下水排放和利用识别模型,选择适宜区段作为地热资源开采区,以调减矿山日常的排水量,尽可能维持渗流场基本不变,进而提高热储的潜能,实现节能减排,达到保护与利用地热资源的效果的建议。  相似文献   

碳酸盐岩洞穴型储层地震综合预测——以塔里木盆地古城低凸起三维区为例     

李毓丰  顾乔元  徐彦龙  钱玲  李新生  余和中  吴建国  席勤  徐永丽 《海相油气地质》2015,(2):72-78

塔里木盆地古城低凸起三维地震工区内的奥陶系碳酸盐岩埋藏深,非均质性强,且无钻井资料。重点对奥陶系鹰山组三段—四段白云岩的串珠状地震反射体进行地质诠释。采用均方根振幅属性预测了储层平面分布规律,应用缝洞雕刻技术预测了裂缝和串珠体发育区,运用相干、曲率属性预测了断裂、裂缝的分布,联合应用频率衰减梯度、低频能量、平均频率和吸收系数等手段进行了油气检测。通过对多种信息的综合分析,评价优选出有利勘探目标。基于上述工作部署的A井,在鹰山组三段灰质白云岩储层中获天然气勘探重大突破,证实了地震综合预测方法的有效性。  相似文献   

Duplex equilibria of Ural circulation anomalies     

Dongdong Li  Yongli He  Jianping Huang 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(3):1425-1452

Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains are crucial indicators of the anomalous downstream weather and climate over East Asia. Here, we provide a new perspective on the mechanism of Ural circulation anomalies. We use a simple theoretical model to determine that the relationship between the solar forcing and three Ural circulation patterns, namely, neutral type, trough anomaly and ridge anomaly, is a nonlinear relationship following the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation theory. The theory predicts that when the total solar irradiance (TSI) is below a critical value, trough and ridge anomalies represent duplex equilibria and are equally likely to occur at the same TSI. Based on 180 winter months record, we have estimated the bidimensional probability density of TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa or zonal wind at 850 hPa over the Ural Mountains. Results show that Sc = 1360.9 W m−2 is a critical value of TSI, the neutral type pattern is the single circulation regime when TSI > Sc, whereas trough and ridge anomaly patterns are duplex circulation regimes when TSI < Sc. Besides, when TSI < Sc, during the same TSI range, trough and ridge anomaly events occur at nearly the same frequencies. These results generally agree with the theoretical model. We demonstrate that trough and ridge anomalies, as duplex equilibria, result from the large-scale zonal flow interacting with the Ural Mountains. Low TSI tends to strengthen the large-scale zonal flow over the Ural Mountains, hence inducing either a trough anomaly or ridge anomaly.  相似文献   

陆面过程模式CoLM和NCAR_CLM3.0对中国典型森林生态系统陆气相互作用的模拟Ⅰ.不同模式模拟结果的初步分析     

宋耀明  郭维栋  张耀存  陈永立 《气候与环境研究》2009,14(3)

量为期1年的日均值的模拟为例,COLM和CLM3.0在长白山观测站模拟值和观测值时间序列的相关系数分别为0.80和0.65,在千烟洲站分别为0.69和0.64,均通过了0.01的信度检验;两个模式对全年平均的模拟与观测日平均值的比值在长白山分别为1.21和0.86,在千烟洲分别为0.83和0.60.研究结果表明,这两个陆面过程模式可以作为研究这两种典型森林生态系统陆气交换的基本工具.同时,对模式模拟性能差异的深入分析将有助于进一步改进陆面模式的参数化过程,为相关研究奠定更坚实的基础.  相似文献   

中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

龙妍妍  范广洲  段炼  冯琬  王钦  李飞  张永莉 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(4):429-438

利用1960~2013年中国6~8月无缺测的571站逐日降水资料,定义7个极端降水指数,研究中国夏季极端降水事件特征。结果表明:(1)极端降水事件空间分布存在明显的区域性差异,长江中下游地区、华南地区、西北地区表现为增加趋势,东北地区、华北地区、西南部分地区表现为减少趋势;时间分布表现出具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,极端降水事件有增加趋势,在20世纪90年代初期有明显转折。(2)M-K检验表现出极端降水事件在20世纪90年代初发生突变,突变前(后)偏弱(强)。(3)极端降水指数周期振荡不完全一致,准15年周期振荡为主,其次是准7年周期,最强振动出现在1998年。(4)除持续干期指数外,其他极端降水指数间存在较好的相关性。  相似文献   

Climate conditions and relative abundance of C<Subscript>3</Subscript> and C<Subscript>4</Subscript> vegetation during the past 40 ka inferred from lake sediments in Wudalianchi,northeast China     

Gen Wang  Yongli Wang  Zhifu Wei  Baoxiang Wu  Zixiang Wang  Zepeng Sun  Liang Xu  Youxiao Wang 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,58(2):243-256

Paleoclimate and paleovegetation changes over the last 40 cal ka were recorded by multiple variables in a sediment core from Qingshi, Wudalianchi City, northeast China. The history of vegetation types inferred from n-C₂₇/n-C₃₁ and average chain length of n-alkanes indicates the paleovegetation went through several distinct stages, consistent with pollen records from the study area. Compound-specific carbon isotope composition was also determined for C₂₇, C₂₉ and C₃₁ n-alkanes in the Qingshi core sediments. The relative abundance of C₃ and C₄ plants was calculated using a binary model and indicates that C₃ plants were the dominant input during the last glacial and Holocene. There were, however, shifts in the ratio of C₃ to C₄ vegetation abundance that correspond to changes in climate conditions. Generally, the long-term trend towards greater C₄ plant abundance from the last glacial to Holocene correlated with an increase in pCO₂, higher temperature, greater precipitation and more growing season precipitation. Our results suggest that temperature and seasonality of precipitation played a strong role in altering the relative abundance of C₃ and C₄ plants in the study area. These results provide information for predicting future vegetation changes in response to on-going global warming.  相似文献   

内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险区划          下载免费PDF全文

王永利  侯琼  苗百岭  云文丽  贾成朕 《应用气象学报》2017,28(4):504-512

利用1979—2013年内蒙古73个旗县气象站资料、历史干旱资料、马铃薯产量数据和社会属性数据等,通过内蒙古中西部和东部地区全生育期的降水负距平百分率与相对气象产量二者建立的回归方程,结合农业干旱等级和降水距平百分率气象干旱等级国家标准,得到了马铃薯轻旱、中旱和重旱的等级指标,确定了干旱致灾因子的危险性,结合承灾体的脆弱性、孕灾环境的暴露性和地区的防灾减灾能力的评价指标体系,利用地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能,对内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险进行评估与区划。研究结果表明:高风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯市东北部、呼和浩特市南部和北部、乌兰察布市大部和锡林郭勒盟南部地区,所占面积比例为19.1%;中风险区主要分布在呼和浩特市部分地区、赤峰市中部和南部、通辽市西北部、兴安盟东北部、呼伦贝尔市北部地区,所占面积比例为20.1%;干旱较低风险区主要分布在赤峰市西部和北部、通辽市东南部、兴安盟西南部、呼伦贝尔市东南部地区,分布区域面积最大,所占比例为41.0%;低风险区主要分布在灌溉区域,包括河套灌区和辽河流域,所占面积比例为19.8%。  相似文献   

南亚高压上下高原时间及其与高原季风建立早晚的关系   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

张菁  范广洲  赖欣  张永莉  王炳赟 《气象科学》2017,37(1):30-40

本文利用1948—2013年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,定义了南亚高压动态特征指数,讨论了南亚高压上下高原的时间以及与高原季风建立早晚的关系。研究表明,南亚高压北界位置在4月初开始北移,5月迅速北抬,最北可达到55°N,9月开始南撤,西伸脊点在5—10月移动较稳定,5—7月向西移动到青藏高原上空,8—10月向东移动撤离高原,11月—次年4月东西摆动剧烈。南亚高压初上高原大致为6月第3候(33候),而撤离约为10月第4候(58候)。南亚高压移上高原的时间较高原夏季风建立晚73 d左右。南亚高压撤离高原时间较高原冬季风建立约早5 d。高原夏季风的建立和南亚高压初上高原是青藏高原热力作用在不同阶段的结果,反映在了高原的高低层上。  相似文献   

云南地区水氡前兆异常动态演化与地震关系研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

和宏伟  和国文 《地震研究》1999,22(4):365-371

本研究系统地处理了１９８７年至１９９７年云南地区２３个水氡观测点的水氡观测数据 突出短临异常,寻找水氡短临预报指标,数据处理方法采用日均值一阶差分法,使用差分平稳序列的３倍均方差作为异常判据。得到了云南地区水氡日差分异常台项月本底值为４台项,水氡日差人异异常数月本底值７次,明确提出了预报３个月内云南地区５级以上地震的短临预报指标,给出了其对应地震关系,其中对应率和概括率均为７０％左右。同时全面地统  相似文献