Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Gädeke  Herwig Hölzel  Hagen Koch  Ina Pohle  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3978-3998

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

From economic integration to socioeconomic inclusion: day labor worker centers as social intermediaries     

M. Anne Visser  Nik Theodore  Edwin J. Melendez  Abel Valenzuela Jr. 《Urban geography》2017,38(2):243-265

Day labor worker centers have emerged as an important mode of regulatory action in the informal economy of major US cities. Research suggests that these organizations are beneficial in improving employment outcomes experienced by migrant workers engaged in this labor market sector. Yet, the extent to which these organizations impact the social integration of this working population remains relatively undeveloped in the literature. Using data from the National Day Labor Survey, we examine the impact of day labor worker centers on the level of social inclusion experienced by migrant day laborers. We find that worker centers have a modest, but statistically significant, impact on the levels of social integration experienced by this working population and that this varies from city to city. Ultimately we argue that the social intermediary role of these organizations may offer a type of counter mobilization necessary to promote the socioeconomic integration of this working population, but that issues of capacity remain.  相似文献   

Refusing resilience: the racialization of risk and resilience     

Anne Bonds 《Urban geography》2018,39(8):1285-1291

In this short essay debating the politics of resilience, I draw from the circulation of resilience discourses following the Milwaukee Uprising of 2016 to argue that critiques of resilience planning in such cities of the global west must be situated within the context of racial capitalism. I further contend that resilience-informed urban projects are often underpinned by an uncritical embrace of notions of public safety and crime that bolster racialized logics of securitization and carcerality. I conclude by suggesting that rather than seeking to recuperate resilience, we instead should refuse it, embracing planning approaches that emphasize structural change rather than adaption.  相似文献   

Consulting as a threat to local democracy? Flexible management consultants,pacified citizens,and political tactics of strategic development in German cities     

Anne Vogelpohl 《Urban geography》2018,39(9):1345-1365

These days, it is often claimed that democratic procedures are under threat. The detachment of policy decisions from political debates is partly a result of the increasing influence of non-elected organizations and experts. Following a conceptual discussion of the spatiality of democracy, this paper focuses on management consultants as constraint on collective political participation in urban development; namely on McKinsey and Roland Berger. (De-)democratization is assessed alongside processes of inclusion and exclusion of both topics and people from political decisions. Based on a comparison of strategy-making projects in six German cities, the findings reveal three different types of urban policymaking ranging between expert-led and participatory versions. Despite the differences, each of the projects relied on a notion of passive citizens, who primarily need to be “gotten on board” and who lack the power to make decisions. This paper exposes the political tactics involved in an expert-influenced curtailment of democratic procedures.  相似文献   

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms     

Earle Williams  Bob Boldi  Anne Matlin  Mark Weber  Steve Hodanish  Dave Sharp  Steve Goodman  Ravi Raghavan  Dennis Buechler 《Atmospheric Research》1999,51(3-4)

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.  相似文献   

A review of the LATEX project: mesoscale to submesoscale processes in a coastal environment   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Anne A. Petrenko  Andrea M. Doglioli  Francesco Nencioli  Marion Kersalé  Ziyuan Hu  Francesco d’Ovidio 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(3-4):513-533

The main objective of the LAgrangian Transport EXperiment (LATEX) project was to study the influence of coastal mesoscale and submesoscale physical processes on circulation dynamics, cross-shelf exchanges, and biogeochemistry in the western continental shelf of the Gulf of Lion, Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. LATEX was a five-year multidisciplinary project based on the combined analysis of numerical model simulations and multi-platform field experiments. The model component included a ten-year realistic 3D numerical simulation, with a 1 km horizontal resolution over the gulf, nested in a coarser 3 km resolution model. The in situ component involved four cruises, including a large-scale multidisciplinary campaign with two research vessels in 2010. This review concentrates on the physics results of LATEX, addressing three main subjects: (1) the investigation of the mesoscale to submesoscale processes. The eddies are elliptic, baroclinic, and anticyclonic; the strong thermal and saline front is density compensated. Their generation processes are studied; (2) the development of sampling strategies for their direct observations. LATEX has implemented an adaptive strategy Lagrangian tool, with a reference software available on the web, to perform offshore campaigns in a Lagrangian framework; (3) the quantification of horizontal mixing and cross-shelf exchanges. Lateral diffusivity coefficients, calculated in various ways including a novel technique, are in the range classically encountered for their associated scales. Cross-shelf fluxes have been calculated, after retrieving the near-inertial oscillation contribution. Further perspectives are discussed, especially for the ongoing challenge of studying submesoscale features remotely and from in situ data.  相似文献   

Isochron‐burial dating of glaciofluvial deposits: First results from the Swiss Alps          下载免费PDF全文

Naki Akçar  Susan Ivy‐Ochs  Vasily Alfimov  Fritz Schlunegger  Anne Claude  Regina Reber  Marcus Christl  Christof Vockenhuber  Andreas Dehnert  Meinert Rahn  Christian Schlüchter 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(14):2414-2425

In this study, we use isochron‐burial dating to date the Swiss Deckenschotter, the oldest Quaternary deposits of the northern Alpine Foreland. Concentrations of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al in individual clasts from a single stratigraphic horizon can be used to calculate an isochron‐burial age based on an assumed initial ratio and the measured ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio. We suggest that, owing to deep and repeated glacial erosion, the initial isochron ratio of glacial landscapes at the time of burial varies between 6.75 and 8.4. Analysis of 22 clasts of different lithology, shape, and size from one 0.5 m thick gravel bed at Siglistorf (Canton Aargau) indicates low nuclide concentrations: <20 000 ¹⁰Be atoms/g and <150 000 ²⁶Al atoms/g. Using an ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio of 7.6 (arithmetical mean of 6.75 and 8.4), we calculate a mean isochron‐burial age of 1.5 ± 0.2 Ma. This age points to an average bedrock incision rate between 0.13 and 0.17 mm/a. Age data from the Irchel, Stadlerberg, and Siglistorf sites show that the Higher Swiss Deckenschotter was deposited between 2.5 and 1.3 Ma. Our results indicate that isochron‐burial dating can be successfully applied to glaciofluvial sediments despite very low cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of storms during drought on post‐wildfire recovery of channel sediment dynamics and habitat in the southern California chaparral,USA          下载免费PDF全文

Joan L. Florsheim  Anne Chin  Alicia M. Kinoshita  Samira Nourbakhshbeidokhti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(10):1482-1492

Current global warming projections suggest a possible increase in wildfire and drought, augmenting the need to understand how drought following wildfire affects the recovery of stream channels in relation to sediment dynamics. We investigated post‐wildfire geomorphic responses caused by storms during a prolonged drought following the 2013 Springs Fire in southern California (USA), using multi‐temporal terrestrial laser scanning and detailed field measurements. After the fire, a dry‐season dry‐ravel sediment pulse contributed sand and small gravel to hillslope‐channel margins in Big Sycamore Creek and its tributaries. A small storm in WY 2014 generated sufficient flow to mobilize a portion of the sediment derived from the dry‐ravel pulse and deposited the fine sediment in the channel, totaling ~0.60 m³/m of volume per unit length of channel. The sediment deposit buried step‐pool habitat structure and reduced roughness by over 90%. These changes altered sediment transport characteristics of the bed material present before and after the storm; the ratio of available to critical shear stress (τ_o/τ_c) increased by five times. Storms during WY 2015 contributed additional fine sediment from tributaries and lower hillslopes and hyperconcentrated flow transported and deposited additional sediment in the channel. Together these sources delivered sediment on the order of six times that in 2014, further increasing τ_o/τ_c. These storms during multi‐year drought following wildfire transformed channel dynamics. The increased sediment transport capacity persisted during the drought period characterized by the longer residence time of relatively fine‐grained post‐fire channel sedimentation. This contrasts with wetter years, when post‐fire sediment is transported from the fluvial system during the same season as the post‐fire sediment pulse. Results of this short‐term study highlight the complex and substantial effects of multi‐year drought on geomorphic responses following wildfire. These responses influence pool habitat that is critical to longer‐term post‐wildfire riparian ecosystem recovery. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fine mesh screening of midden material and the recovery of fish bone: The development of flotation and deflocculation techniques for an efficient and effective procedure     

Anne Ross  Ryan Duffy 《Geoarchaeology》2000,15(1):21-41

The absence of fish remains in archaeological sites in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, may be a function of recovery techniques, rather than a reflection of resource paucity and late onset of occupation, as has been posited in archaeological literature. An excavation on Peel Island in Moreton Bay was devised, in part, to test this proposition, and a 1‐mm mesh screen was used to enhance recovery. But sorting this fine fraction took 20 h. In this article we outline experiments to find a more efficient and effective technique for sieving and sorting fine fraction archaeological deposits, using methods borrowed from soil science. We show how sorting time can be reduced to 2 h 30 min per 100 g sample and argue that the vast increase in knowledge about the site occurring as a result of using the very fine mesh sieve warrants the continued application of these laboratory methods. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

Determination of Radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and Stable δ88/86SrSRM987 Isotope Values of Thirteen Mineral,Vegetal and Animal Reference Materials by DS‐TIMS     

Jean‐Michel Brazier  Anne‐Dsire Schmitt  Eric Pelt  Damien Lemarchand  Sophie Gangloff  Tho Tacail  Vincent Balter 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(2):331-348

This work presents new ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values of thirteen mineral, vegetal and animal reference materials. Except for UB‐N, all our results are consistent with previously published data. Our results highlight intermediate precisions among the best presently published and a non‐significant systematic shift with the calculated δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 mean values for the three most analysed reference materials in the literature (i.e., IAPSO, BCR‐2 and JCp‐1). By comparison with the literature and between two distinct digestions, a significant bias of δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values was highlighted for two reference materials (UB‐N and GS‐N). It has also been shown that digestion protocols (nitric and multi‐acid) have a moderate impact on the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values for the Jls‐1 reference materials suggesting that a nitric acid digestion of carbonate can be used without significant bias from partial digestion of non‐carbonate impurities. Different δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values were measured after two independent Sr/matrix separations, according to the same protocol, for a fat‐rich organic reference material (BCR‐380R) and have been related to a potential post‐digestion heterogeneity. Finally, the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 value differences measured between animal‐vegetal and between coral‐seawater reference materials agree with the previously published results, highlighting an Sr isotopic fractionation along the trophic chain and during carbonate precipitation.  相似文献