Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada     

Carlos F. Gaitan  William W. Hsieh  Alex J. Cannon 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3201-3217

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.  相似文献   

Influence of the spatial resolution of satellite-derived vegetation parameters on the biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) emission modeling     

Carlos M. S. Silveira  Oxana A. Tchepel 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(1):104-111

Vegetation is a natural source of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) that plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The main objective of the current study is to implement a model to quantify process-based VOC emissions from plants that focuses on the relationship between the sensitivity of VOC emission estimates to spatial resolution data, based on scientific knowledge and vegetation dynamics derived from satellite observations. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) were elected to examine this issue using different resolutions of satellite-derived products: 22m from the DEIMOS-1 satellite, and 250m and 1000m provided by MODIS. The study is focused on an area of 80×80km² in Portugal for 2011. Detailed land cover and meteorological data are also included in the emission quantification algorithm. The primary outcomes were determined using a multi-scale analysis showing spatial and temporal variations in the vegetation parameters and modeling results. The results confirm that the emissions model is highly sensitive to the spatial resolution of the satellite-derived data, resulting in about a 30% difference in total isoprene emissions for the study area.  相似文献   

Significance of ancient sulfide PGE and Re–Os signatures in the mantle beneath Calatrava,Central Spain     

José María González-Jiménez  Carlos Villaseca  William L. Griffin  Suzanne Y. O’Reilly  Elena Belousova  Eumenio Ancochea  Norman J. Pearson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(2):1-24

Spinel lherzolite and wehrlite xenoliths from the Cenozoic Calatrava volcanic field carry the geochemical imprint of metasomatic agents that have affected the subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath Central Iberia. Some xenoliths (mainly wehrlites) were enriched in REE, Sr, P, and CO₂ by silicic-carbonate-rich metasomatic melts/fluids, while others record the effects of subduction-related hydrous silicate fluids that have precipitated amphibole and induced high Ti/Eu in primary clinopyroxene. The petrographic observations and geochemical data suggest that interstitial glass in the xenoliths represent the quenched products of Si-rich melts that infiltrated the mantle peridotite shortly before the entrainment of the xenoliths in the host magmas that erupted ca 2 million years ago. During their infiltration, the metasomatic melts reacted with peridotite, resulting in silica enrichment, while remobilizing grains of iron-rich monosulfide solid solution (Fe-rich Mss) initially enclosed in, or intergranular to, primary olivine and pyroxenes. In situ laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry analysis of single sulfide grains reveals that the Fe-rich Mss in glass shows platinum-group element (PGE) patterns and ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os compositions identical to the Fe-rich Mss occurring as inclusions in, or at grain boundaries of primary silicates. Moreover, independent of its microstructural position, Fe-rich Mss exhibits PGE and ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os signatures typical of Mss either residual after partial melting or crystallized directly from sulfide melts. Our findings reveal that young metasomatic melt(s)/fluid(s) may carry remobilized sulfides with PGE and Os-isotopic signatures identical to those of texturally older sulfides in the peridotite xenolith. These sulfides thus still provide useful information about the timing and nature of older magmatic events in the subcontinental mantle.  相似文献   

A Middle Miocene carbonate embankment on an active volcanic slope: Ilhéu de Baixo,Madeira Archipelago,Eastern Atlantic     

B. Gudveig Baarli  Mrio Cacho  Carlos M. da Silva  Markes E. Johnson  Eduardo J. Mayoral  Ana Santos 《Geological Journal》2014,49(1):90-106

Carbonate factories on insular oceanic islands in active volcanic settings are poorly explored. This case study illuminates marginal limestone deposits on a steep volcanic flank and their recurring interruption by deposits linked to volcaniclastic processes. Historically known as Ilhéu da Cal (Lime Island), Ilhéu de Baixo was separated from Porto Santo, in the Madeira Archipelago, during the course of the Quaternary. Here, extensive mines were tunnelled in the Miocene carbonate strata for the production of slaked lime. Approximately 10 000 m³ of calcarenite (−1 to 1ø) was removed by hand labour from the Blandy Brothers mine at the south end of the islet. Investigations of two stratigraphic sections at opposite ends of the mine reveal that the quarried material represents an incipient carbonate ramp developed from east to west and embanked against the flank of a volcanic island. A petrographic analysis of limestones from the mine shows that coralline red algae from crushed rhodoliths account for 51% of all identifiable bioclasts. This material was transported shoreward and deposited on the ramp between normal wave base and storm wave base at moderate depths. The mine's roof rocks are formed by Surtseyan deposits from a subsequent volcanic eruption. Volcaniclastic density flows also are a prevalent factor interrupting renewed carbonate deposition. These flows arrived downslope from the north and gradually steepened the debris apron westwards. Slope instability is further shown by a coral rudstone density flow that followed from growth of a coral reef dominated by Pocillopora madreporacea (Lamarck), partial reef collapse, and transport from a more easterly direction into a fore‐reef setting. The uppermost facies represents a soft bottom at moderate depths in a quiet, but shore‐proximal setting. Application of this study to a broader understanding of the relationship between carbonate and volcaniclastic deposition on oceanic islands emphasizes the susceptibility of carbonates to dilution and complete removal by density flows of various kinds, in contrast to the potential for preservation beneath less‐disruptive Surtseyan deposits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Steve J. Maddox  Ed Hawkins  John A. Peacock  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Bryn Jones  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1485-1494

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The droughts of 1996–1997 and 2004–2005 in Amazonia: hydrological response in the river main‐stem     

Javier Tomasella  Laura S. Borma  José A. Marengo  Daniel A. Rodriguez  Luz A. Cuartas  Carlos A. Nobre  Maria C. R. Prado 《水文研究》2011,25(8):1228-1242

Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Niño events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Niño event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Niño events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main‐stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin‐wide 1996–1997 El Niño‐related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main‐stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004–2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996–1997 drought, when above‐normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time‐lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main‐stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Pliocene and late Pleistocene (MIS 5e) decapod crustaceans from Santa Maria Island (Azores Archipelago: Central Atlantic): systematics,palaeoecology and palaeobiogeography     

Matúš Hyžný  Carlos S. Melo  Ricardo S. Ramalho  Ricardo Cordeiro  Patrícia Madeira  Lara Baptista  A. Cristina Rebelo  Cynthia Gómez  Alfred Uchman  Markes E. Johnson  Björn Berning  Sérgio P. Ávila 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):91-109

The presence of decapod crustaceans in the Pliocene and Pleistocene (MIS 5e) fossil record of Santa Maria Island (Azores Archipelago) is herein reviewed. Our study raises the number of fossil decapods from this island from one species to 10 taxa (three for the Pliocene and seven for the Last Interglacial). Four of these 10 taxa are reported for the first time in the fossil record, worldwide. A new species of a mud shrimp is also described (Upogebia azorensis n. sp.). Our study suggests that the Plio–Pleistocene decapod assemblages of the Azores did not differ significantly from modern ones, being dominated by species that are today widespread across the Webbnesia ecoregion, the Mediterranean Sea, and the eastern Atlantic shores, including the Azores. As far as can be judged from the limited fossil record, apparently no tropical crab species with a Cabo Verdean/Senegalese provenance reached the Azores during windows of opportunity associated with Glacial Termination 2 or with the initial setting of the Last Interglacial period. This contribution increases the total number of marine taxa reported for the Pliocene and Pleistocene outcrops of Santa Maria Island to 218 and 155, respectively, highlighting the scientific relevance of its palaeontological heritage.  相似文献   

Coastal vulnerability in barrier islands: The high risk areas of the Ria Formosa (Portugal) system     

Filipe Rafael Ceia  Joana Patrício  João Carlos Marques  João Alveirinho Dias 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(8):478-486

Coastal vulnerability in barrier island systems is extremely high. The barrier island shoreline is exposed to many threats, such as storm erosion, reductions in sediment longshore drift and sea level rise. Many of these threats to coastal areas, such as Ria Formosa, are likely to increase in the near future. The main objectives of the present study are to identify the areas in the system that are at most risk by assessing the evolution of the Ria Formosa barrier island system since the 1940s, and determine which interventions would be necessary to protect these areas.The coastal vulnerability of the system was assessed based on current literature, data available from official institutions, and aerial and terrestrial in situ examination. The results obtained for the evolution of the Ria Formosa coastal system reveal that there are several vulnerable areas that have very dynamic processes, such as extremely high evolution rates of islands and inlets. Human actions that affect the whole system, namely the construction of many physical structures, are the main cause of the instability. Moreover, as several stakeholders are involved, efficient management of the coastal system is imperative. Extensive and careful interventions are urgently needed to avoid irreversible negative impacts on the barrier island system. Three types of techniques could be adopted to deal with the threats to barrier islands: hard stabilization, soft techniques, and non-structural alternatives. However, using hard techniques has many negative effects compared to soft techniques, and as a result it is necessary to remove existing structures from the areas at most risk.  相似文献   

Gemini/GMOS spectra of globular clusters in the Leo group elliptical NGC 3379     

Michael Pierce  Michael A. Beasley  Duncan A. Forbes  Terry Bridges  Karl Gebhardt  Favio Raul Faifer  Juan Carlos Forte  Stephen E. Zepf  Ray Sharples  David A. Hanes  Robert Proctor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,366(4):1253-1264

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A search for distant radio galaxies from SUMSS and NVSS – III. Radio spectral energy distributions and the z–α correlation     

Ilana J. Klamer  Ron D. Ekers  Julia J. Bryant  Richard W. Hunstead  Elaine M. Sadler  Carlos De Breuck 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(2):852-866

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