European climate of the past 500 years based on documentary and instrumental data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Rudolf Brázdil  Dennis Wheeler  Christian Pfister 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):1-6

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The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe     

Christian Pfister  Emmanuel Garnier  Maria-João Alcoforado  Dennis Wheeler  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria Fatima Nunes  João Paulo Taborda 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):281-310

Three violent eighteenth-century storms that ravaged the North Sea area (1703), western central Europe (1739) and Portugal (1739) are investigated from the point of view of their meteorological setting, their socio-economic impact, and whether and by what means they secured an enduring place in the cultural memory. The evidence draws on individual narrative sources such as chronicles and poems, and institutional sources such as ship’s logbooks and state-organised ‘windthrow’ inventories of tree loss. Each of the three storms had socio-economic impacts that could be described as ‘war-like’ in the damage caused to buildings and the destruction of forests. The “Great Storm” of December 1703 jeopardized English naval supremacy in the War of the Spanish Succession by sinking a number of Royal Navy ships and taking the life of more than 8000 seamen. In January 1739 two similarly destructive storms swept over mainland Europe. The cultural memory of the three events here considered was however strikingly different. The sequence of storms in January 1739 though being the most protracted of the last centuries, and well-chroniceled, did not persist in the collective memories of those in France, Switzerland and elsewhere who experienced them. Likewise, the “Great Storm” was quickly forgotten on the continent, whereas its memory remained deeply rooted in England through the writings of Defoe (1704). In Portugal the 1739 storm won a lasting place in the country’s cultural memory owing to two poems that it inspired. Furthermore, it was recorded in the Kingdom’s official newspaper, in the astronomical prognoses and in written records of the Old Regime’s cultural elite.  相似文献   

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rudolf Brázdil  Gaston R. Demarée  Mathias Deutsch  Emmanuel Garnier  Andrea Kiss  Jürg Luterbacher  Neil Macdonald  Christian Rohr  Petr Dobrovolný  Petr Kolář  Kateřina Chromá 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,100(1-2):163-189

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.  相似文献   

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies     

Barry H. Lynn  Cynthia Rosenzweig  Richard Goldberg  David Rind  Christian Hogrefe  Len Druyan  Richard Healy  Jimy Dudhia  Joyce Rosenthal  Patrick Kinney 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):567-587

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.  相似文献   

Impacts of global environmental change and aquaculture expansion on marine ecosystems     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Christian Mullon  Lynda Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):586-596

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Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Daniel J. A. Johansson  U. Martin Persson  Christian Azar 《Climatic change》2008,88(3-4):293-308

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.  相似文献   

Impact of Terrain Heterogeneity on Coherent Structure Properties: Numerical Approach   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Clement Fesquet  Sylvain Dupont  Philippe Drobinski  Thomas Dubos  Christian Barthlott 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,133(1):71-92

A three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) model, which includes the effects of plant–atmosphere interactions, is used to study the effects of surface inhomogeneities on near-surface coherent structures over an open field and behind a forest canopy. These simulated conditions are representative of two wind sectors of the Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédétection Atmosphérique (SIRTA) experimental site at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Palaiseau, France. Coherent structure properties deduced from wavelet transforms of the simulated near-surface vertical velocity time series are not modified by upstream terrain heterogeneities, in agreement with site measurements. This feature is related to the nature of structures detected from the vertical velocity time series. The turbulence close to the surface seems composed of both local coherent structures and large coherent structures reflecting outer-layer properties, which depend on the overall surface heterogeneity or upstream heterogeneity. It is argued that the streamwise velocity is representative of these large outer-layer structures that impinge onto the ground through a top-down mechanism as identified through the space–time correlation of the wind velocity components. In contrast, the vertical velocity is more representative of small structures resulting from the impingement of the large outer-layer structures. These small structures represent locally-generated, active turbulence, which adjusts rapidly to local surface conditions, and consequently they are only weakly dependent on upstream heterogeneities.  相似文献   

Lunar intrusive domes: Morphometric analysis and laccolith modelling     

Christian Wöhler  Raffaello Lena  Geologic Lunar Research Group 《Icarus》2009,204(2):381-398

This study examines a set of lunar domes with very low flank slopes which differ in several respects from the frequently occurring lunar effusive domes. Some of these domes are exceptionally large, and most of them are associated with faults or linear rilles of presumably tensional origin. Accordingly, they might be interpreted as surface manifestations of laccolithic intrusions formed by flexure-induced vertical uplift of the lunar crust (or, alternatively, as low effusive edifices due to lava mantling of highland terrain, or kipukas, or structural features). All of them are situated near the borders of mare regions or in regions characterised by extensive effusive volcanic activity. Clementine multispectral UVVIS imagery indicates that they do not preferentially occur in specific types of mare basalt. Our determination of their morphometric properties, involving a combined photoclinometry and shape from shading technique applied to telescopic CCD images acquired at oblique illumination, reveals large dome diameters between 10 and more than 30 km, flank slopes below 0.9°, and volumes ranging from 0.5 to 50 km³. We establish three morphometric classes. The first class, In1, comprises large domes with diameters above 25 km and flank slopes of 0.2°-0.6°, class In2 is made up by smaller and slightly steeper domes with diameters of 10-15 km and flank slopes between 0.4° and 0.9°, and domes of class In3 have diameters of 13-20 km and flank slopes below 0.3°. While the morphometric properties of several candidate intrusive domes overlap with those of some classes of effusive domes, we show that a possible distinction criterion are the characteristic elongated outlines of the candidate intrusive domes. We examine how they differ from typical effusive domes of classes 5 and 6 defined by Head and Gifford [Head, J.W., Gifford, A., 1980. Lunar mare domes: classification and modes of origin. Moon Planets 22, 235-257], and show that they are likely no highland kipukas due to the absence of spectral contrast to their surrounding. These considerations serve as a motivation for an analysis of the candidate intrusive domes in terms of the laccolith model by Kerr and Pollard [Kerr, A.D., Pollard, D.D., 1998. Toward more realistic formulations for the analysis of laccoliths. J. Struct. Geol. 20(12), 1783-1793], to estimate the geophysical parameters, especially the intrusion depth and the magma pressure, which would result from the observed morphometric properties. Accordingly, domes of class In1 are characterised by intrusion depths of 2.3-3.5 km and magma pressures between 18 and 29 MPa. For the smaller and steeper domes of class In2 the magma intruded to shallow depths between 0.4 and 1.0 km while the inferred magma pressures range from 3 to 8 MPa. Class In3 domes are similar to those of class In1 with intrusion depths of 1.8-2.7 km and magma pressures of 15-23 MPa. As an extraordinary feature, we describe in some detail the concentric crater Archytas G associated with the intrusive dome Ar1 and discuss possible modes of origin. In comparison to the candidate intrusive domes, terrestrial laccoliths tend to be smaller, but it remains unclear if this observation is merely a selection effect due to the limited resolution of our telescopic CCD images. An elongated outline is common to many terrestrial laccoliths and the putative lunar laccoliths, while the thickness values measured for terrestrial laccoliths are typically higher than those inferred for lunar laccoliths, but the typical intrusion depths are comparable.  相似文献   

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall     

Christian Wolf  Alfonso Aragón-Salamanca  Michael Balogh  Marco Barden  Eric F. Bell  Meghan E. Gray  Chien Y. Peng  David Bacon  Fabio D. Barazza  Asmus Böhm  John A. R. Caldwell  Anna Gallazzi  Boris Häußler  Catherine Heymans  Knud Jahnke  Shardha Jogee  Eelco van Kampen  Kyle Lane  Daniel H. McIntosh  Klaus Meisenheimer  Casey Papovich  Sebastian F. Sánchez  y Taylor  Lutz Wisotzki  Xianzhong Zheng 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(4):1302-1323

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.  相似文献   

Preface     

Eric R. Christian  Michael L. Kaiser  Therese A. Kucera  O. C. St. Cyr  Lidia van Driel-Gesztelyi  Cristina H. Mandrini 《Solar physics》2009,256(1-2):1-2

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