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171.
172.
The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge
conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area
of approx. 110,000 km2. This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions
under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (“business as usual”) are then used as input to the method
of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the
investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The
study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However,
the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads
to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. 相似文献
173.
Akira Imai Jumpei Shinomiya Maung Thiha Soe Lucas Donny Setijadji Koichiro Watanabe I Wayan Warmada 《Resource Geology》2007,57(2):230-240
The Selogiri area, situated in Wonogiri regency, Central Java, is one of several gold prospecting areas in the Southern areas Mountain Range in Java, Indonesia. Three types of dioritic–andesitic intrusive rocks occur in the Selogiri area, namely, hornblende andesite porphyry, hornblende diorite porphyry and hornblende diorite, exposed in a half‐circular depression where volcanic breccia and tuff are widely distributed. The occurrence of stockwork quartz veinlets and associated with magnetite and malachite coating along the cracks in the diorite porphyry suggests porphyry type mineralization. This is also supported by the occurrence of polyphase hypersaline fluid inclusions in the stockwork veinlet quartz. Small‐scale miners are mining NS‐trending quartz veins for gold associated with base metal sulfides. These veins are probably epithermal‐type mineralization that overprinted porphyry‐type mineralization. The Neogene intermediate to silicic hydrous magmatism in Java could have formed the porphyry‐type mineralization in Selogiri, as in the rest of the Sunda–Banda arc. 相似文献
174.
175.
Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs 总被引:2,自引:8,他引:2
Detlef P. van Vuuren Michel G. J. den Elzen Paul L. Lucas Bas Eickhout Bart J. Strengers Bas van Ruijven Steven Wonink Roy van Houdt 《Climatic change》2007,81(2):119-159
On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse
gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO2-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO2 gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO2-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels,
global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario
(a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand,
the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions
of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order
of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution
of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important
than any of the technical constraints. 相似文献
176.
Lucas de Queiroz Salles Paulo Galvão Luiz Rogério Bastos Leal Ricardo Galeno Fraga de Araujo Pereira Carlos Gleidson Campos da Purificação Fernando Verassani Laureano 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(16):593
The morphological evolution of the karstic systems is associated with a set of physical and chemical processes, triggered by the dissolution of the rocks, related to percolation of groundwater and surface water, which consequently open underground voids and carve out peculiar forms of relief. Due to environmental and geotechnical aspects, this system is naturally more fragile and vulnerable than other natural systems and, therefore, has increasingly received the attention of the scientific community over the past decades. The objective of the study was to delimit zones with varying degrees of susceptibility for collapses and subsidence of sinkholes in the municipality of Iraquara, Chapada Diamantina (BA), Brazil, and to understand their geological and morphological determinant factors. Geological data, karst phenomenon map, and visual analysis in the field were used to categorize zones with different types of susceptibilities to the nucleation of new sinkholes based on a Hazard Index. This index was defined from the sum of geological hazard factors, lineament density, and sinkhole density. The areas that presented the highest susceptibility for terrain collapse and subsidence corresponded to regions where carbonate rocks outcrop, with high density of photolineaments and 2.62 sinkholes/km2. Processes associated with terrain collapse and subsidence in karst areas consisted of a combination of various factors, hindering precise predictions. However, zones of different types of susceptibilities to terrain collapse and subsidence can be delimited when the relationships between these processes and their factors are understood. The Hazard Index proposed does not provide quantitative values for the probability of hazard susceptibility, but rather indicates areas that are more susceptible to terrain subsidence and collapse. 相似文献
177.
Hofmann Mandy Voigt Thomas Bittner Lucas Gärtner Andreas Zieger Johannes Linnemann Ulf 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(3):913-932
International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Saxonian–Bohemian Cretaceous Basin (Elbsandsteingebirge, E Germany and Czech Republic, Elbtal Group) comprises Upper Cretaceous sedimentary rocks... 相似文献
178.
179.
Hoffimann Jlio Augusto Jos Resende Lucas Mathias Marlon Mazzinghy Douglas Bianchetti Matheus Mendes Mnica Souza Thiago Andrade Vitor Domingues Tarcsio Silva Wesley Silva Ruberlan Couto Danielly Fonseca Elisabeth Gonalves Keila 《Mathematical Geosciences》2022,54(7):1227-1253
Mathematical Geosciences - In mine planning, geospatial estimates of variables such as comminution indexes and metallurgical recovery are extremely important to locate blocks for which the energy... 相似文献
180.
Ray J. Morris Andrew R. Klekociuk Ralph Latteck Werner Singer David A. Holdsworth Damian J. Murphy 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(3-4):464-469
An inter-hemispheric asymmetry is found in the characteristics of polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) and upper mesosphere temperatures at conjugate latitudes (~69°) above Antarctica and the Arctic. The second complete mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar summer observation season at Davis (68.6°S) revealed that PMSE occur less frequently, with lower strength and on average 1 km higher compared with their northern counterparts at Andenes (69.3°N). We consider the thermodynamic state of the mesosphere for conjoining hemispheric summers based on satellite and ground-based radar measurements, and show the mesopause region near ~80–87 km of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) to be up to 7.5 K warmer than its Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterpart. We show that this is consistent with our observation of asymmetries in the characteristics of PMSE and demonstrate how the mesosphere meridional wind field influences the existence and strength of the echoes in both hemispheres. 相似文献