Additive versus multiplicative models in ecologic regression     

W. Douglas Thompson  Daniel Wartenberg 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):635-646

Much research in environmental epidemiology relies on aggregate-level information on exposure to potentially toxic substances and on relevant covariates. We compare the use of additive (linear) and multiplicative (log-linear) regression models for the analysis of such data. We illustrate how both additive and multiplicative models can be fit to aggregate-level data sets in which disease incidence is the dependent variable, and contrast these results with similar models fitted to individual-level data. We find (1) that for aggregate-level data, multiplicative models are more likely than additive models to introduce bias into the estimation of rates, an effect not found with individual-level data; and (2) that under many circumstances multiplicative models reduce the precision of the estimates, an effect also not found in individual-level models. For both additive and multiplicative models of aggregate-level data, we find that, in the presence of covariates, narrow confidence interval are obtained only when two or more antecedent factors are strongly related to the measured covariate and/or the exposure of primary substantive interest. We conclude that the equivalency of fitting additive versus multiplicative models in studies with individual-level binary data does not carry over to studies that analyze aggregate-level information. For aggregate data, we strongly recommend use of additive models. Supported by Grant #1 U19 EH000102 from the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.  相似文献   

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake     

John Douglas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(3):363-376

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.  相似文献   

The level of deterrence provided by data from the SPITS seismometer array to possible violations of the Comprehensive Test Ban in the Novaya Zemlya region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David Bowers  Peter D. Marshall  Alan Douglas 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,146(2):425-438

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Hydrogeologic studies for nuclear-waste disposal in Sweden     

Douglas D. Walker  Björn Gylling  Anders Ström  Jan-Olof Selroos 《Hydrogeology Journal》2001,9(5):419-431

Safety Report 1997 (SR 97) of the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is a comprehensive performance assessment of three hypothetical radioactive waste repositories in Sweden. It includes hydrogeologic studies (data compilation, parameter synthesis, and groundwater flow modeling) to determine groundwater flow and the associated uncertainties for the three sites. This report reviews and compares the hydrogeologic characterization programs, the site characteristics, and the groundwater flow models used in the SR 97 performance assessment. Although differences in site-characterization programs tend to mask differences in site characteristics, the sites do have notable differences that affect the results of the performance assessment. The effects of model uncertainties evaluated by the variant cases appear to be smaller than the variability of results for the base case (best estimate of site conditions) of each site. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Analysis of the Effect of Borehole Size on Explosive Energy Loss in Rock Blasting     

Changshou Sun  Douglas W. Later  Gang Chen 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2001,5(4):235-246

In this paper, studies were conducted on the effect of borehole size on explosive energy loss in rock blasting. Since most industrial explosives are nonideal ones, the charge size and the confinement condition have significant impact on the detonation performance of these explosives. Analyses indicated that smaller boreholes will cause more loss of explosive energy than larger ones. This is especially true for most industrial explosives. The paper presents the analyses of energy loss for a number of different explosives with various borehole sizes. Based on these analyses recommendations and guidelines were given for borehole size determination in rock blasting operations.  相似文献   

A determination of source properties of large intraplate earthquakes in Alaska     

Hilary J. Fletcher  Douglas H. Christensen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,146(1):21-41

Historically, large and potentially hazardous earthquakes have occurred within the interior of Alaska. However, most have not been adequately studied using modern methods of waveform modeling. The 22 July 1937, 16 October 1947, and 7 April 1958 earthquakes are three of the largest events known to have occurred within central Alaska (M _s =7.3,M _s =7.2 andM _s =7.3, respectively). We analyzed teleseismic body waves to gain information about the focal parameters of these events. In order to deconvolve the source time functions from teleseismic records, we first attempted to improve upon the published focal mechanisms for each event. Synthetic seismograms were computed for different source parameters, using the reflectivity method. A search was completed which compared the hand-digitized data with a suite of synthetic traces covering the complete parameter space of strike, dip, and slip direction. In this way, the focal mechanism showing the maximum correlation between the observed and calculated traces was found. Source time functions, i.e., the moment release as a function of time, were then deconvolved from teleseismic records for the three historical earthquakes, using the focal mechanisms which best fit the data. From these deconvolutions, we also recovered the depth of the events and their seismic moments. The earthquakes were all found to have a shallow foci, with depths of less than 10 km.The 1937 earthquake occurred within a northeast-southwest band of seismicity termed the Salcha seismic zone (SSZ). We confirm the previously published focal mechanism, indicating strike-slip faulting, with one focal plane parallel to the SSZ which was interpreted as the fault plane. Assuming a unilateral fault model and a reasonable rupture velocity of between 2 and 3 km/s, the 21 second rupture duration for this event indicates that all of the 65 km long SSZ may have ruptured during this event. The 1947 event, located to the south of the northwest-southeast trending Fairbanks seismic zone, was found to have a duration of about 11 seconds, thus indicating a rupture length of up to 30 km. The rupture duration of the 1958 earthquake, which occurred near the town of Huslia, approximately 400 km ENE of Fairbanks, was found to be about 9 seconds. This gives a rupture length consistent with the observed damage, an area of 16 km by 64 km.  相似文献   

Interactions of growing folds and coeval depositional systems   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Douglas Burbank  rew Meigs  & Nicholas Brozovi&#; 《Basin Research》1996,8(3):199-223

Responses of both modern and ancient fluvial depositional systems to growing folds can be interpreted in terms of interactions among competing controlling variables which can be incorporated into simple conceptual models. The ratio of the rate of sediment accumulation to the rate of structural uplift determines whether a fold develops a topographic expression above local base level. The balance between (a) stream power and rates of upstream deposition vs. (b) bedrock resistance and rates of crestal uplift and of fold widening determines whether an antecedent stream maintains its course or is defeated by a growing structure. Modern drainage configurations in actively folding landscapes can often be interpreted in terms of these competing variables, and through analysis of digital topography, detailed topographic characteristics of these folds can be quantified. Modern examples of growing folds display both defeated and persistent antecedent rivers, deflected drainages and laterally propagating structures. The topography associated with a defeated antecedent river at Wheeler Ridge, California, is consistent with a model in which defeat results from forced aggradation in the piggyback basin, without the need to vary discharge or uplift rate. Reconstruction of the long-term interplay between a depositional system and evolving folds requires a stratigraphic perspective, such as that provided by syntectonic strata which are directly juxtaposed with ancient folds and faults. Analysis of Palaeogene growth strata bounding the Catalan Coastal Ranges of NE Spain demonstrates the synchronous growth and the kinematic history of multiple folds and faults in the proximal foreland basin. Although dominated by transverse rivers which crossed fold crests, palaeovalleys, interfan lows, structural re-entrants and saddles, and rising anticlines diverted flow and influenced local deposition. In the ancient record, drainage-network events, such as avulsion or defeat of a transverse stream, usually cannot be unambiguously attributed to a single cause. Examination of ancient syntectonic strata from a geomorphological perspective, however, permits successive reconstructions of synorogenic topography, landscapes and depositional systems.  相似文献   

Microphytobenthos: The ecological role of the “secret garden” of unvegetated,shallow-water marine habitats. II. role in sediment stability and shallow-water food webs     

Douglas C. Miller  Richard J. Geider  Hugh L. MacIntyre 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(2):202-212

The microphytobenthos form an important component of all shallow-water ecosystems where enough light reaches the sediment surface to support appreciable primary production. Although less conspicuous than macroalgae or vascular plants, the microphytobenthos can contribute significantly to primary production and can modify habitat characteristics. The microphytobenthos alter sediment properties (e.g., erodibility) both directly, in the extreme forming a mat or scum on the sediment surface, and indirectly by modifying the activities of benthic infauna (e.g., pelletization, burrowing, tube building, and sediment tracking). Carbon dioxide fixed by the microphytobenthos supports higher, grazing trophic levels. These include deposit-feeding and suspension-feeding macrofauna as well as meiofauna and microfauna. Quantitative relations between the feeding and growth rates of macrofauna and the abundance of microphytobenthos and suspended organic matter (i.e., functional responses) are reviewed. Given the current state of knowledge of the direct and indirect interactions involving trophic dynamics, sediment properties, and benthic microalgae, we argue for reductionist studies of particular interactions as distinct entities. This is a prerequisite for the emergence of a comprehensive picture of unvegetated ecosystems and the ability to predict their responses to man’s activities. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00005  相似文献   

Sediment toxicity in the Hudson-Raritan estuary: Distribution and correlations with chemical contamination     

Douglas A. Wolfe  Edward R. Long  Glen B. Thursby 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(4):901-912

The Hudson-Raritan Estuary is one of several United States coastal areas where chemical data have suggested a potential for contaminant-related biological effects, and multiyear intensive bioeffects surveys have been conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The severity and spatial patterns in sediment toxicity were determined in an estuary-wide survey during spring 1991 using amphipods, bivalve larvae, and luminescent bacteria as test organisms. Spatial patterns in toxicity corresponded to the distributions of a number of toxic chemicals in the sediments. Areas that exhibited the greatest sediment toxicity included the upper East River, Arthur Kill, Newark Bay, and Sandy Hook Bay. The lower Hudson River adjacent to Manhattan Island, upper New York Harbor, lower New York Harbor off Staten Island, and parts of western Raritan Bay generally showed lower toxicity. Supporting chemical analyses of the sediments, including acid-volatile sulfide and simultaneously-extracted metals, suggested that metals were generally not the cause of the observed toxicity, with the possible exception of mercury. Among all contaminants analyzed, toxicity was most strongly associated with polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, which were substantially more concentrated in toxic samples than in nontoxic samples, and which frequently exceeded sediment quality criteria.  相似文献   

Climate spectra and detecting climate change   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Peter Bloomfield  Douglas Nychka 《Climatic change》1992,21(3):275-287

Part of the debate over possible climate changes centers on the possibility that the changes observed over the previous century are natural in origin. This raises the question of how large a change could be expected as a result of natural variability. If the climate measurement of interest is modelled as a stationary (or related) Gaussian time series, this question can be answered in terms of (a) the way in which change is estimated, and (b) the spectrum of the time series. These computations are illustrated for 128 years of global temperature data using some simple measures of change and for a variety of possible temperature spectra. The results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability. The uncertainties in estimates of trend are most sensitive to fluctuations in the temperature series with periods from approximately 50 to 500 years. For some of the temperature spectra, it was found that the standard error of the least squares trend estimate was 3 times the standard error derived under the naïve assumption that the temperature series was uncorrelated. The observed trend differs from zero by more than 3 times the largest of the calculated standard errors, however, and is therefore highly significant.  相似文献